My goodness, Milum, just give iit up already! This thread is not about the validity of that poll! It is about China’s attitude towards Taiwan and how the situation might develop in the future. You seem to have absolutely nothing to offer on that topic except to pick on the silly side issue of questioning the reliability of a poll which is not central to the thread or the topic being discussed. You have nothing to contribute to the thread but a childish attempt to derail it and turn it into an anti-China manifest. Just give it up already or we may have to take this issue to the Pit so the thread con continue without your interference.
Ok** Sailor**, now you’ve done it.
You by your authoritarian assertions that demand cited documentation for the most basic ideas and thoughts that are everywhere fundamental to any worthwhile discussion of the relative value of major world events, force me to ask you these embarrassing questions…
Do you think that your time spent paling around with your chinese buddies has somehow enabled you to transcend conventional thinking about the nature of chinese communism?
Are the chinese people free today?
How much sway does public opinion have within the hierarchies of China?
Do you still think that communism can be a viable form of government in China?
Why do you not wish the good life on the chinese people?
Milum, please stop wasting our time. You have not answered any of the questions put to you directly related to this thread and I am not going to waste time answering questions which are totally unrelated.
I agree with these assessments.
I think Aeschines’s point is that it is not an issue where one side is 100% good and the other 100% bad. Taiwan has somewhat more political freedom but it is relatively recent and showing some problems now. OTOH China is fast moving in that direction too. It is not a matter of what side is right and which side is wrong but a matter of how can the issue be resolved and what might lead to problems. Instability in Taiwan is not a good thing as it might give China an excuse to intervene.
OK, I’m just wandering by, don’t know all the nuances of the China-Taiwan debate, just reading the thread, some interesting discussion…then I get to Milum’s ludicrous contributions.
Milum, please, listen to someone who has no axe to grind here either way. You have contributed nothing of substance so far and IMO you are making a complete fool of yourself. This thread is not a referendum on the legitimacy of the mainland Chinese government and we all get that you think ‘liberals’, however you define them, are your mortal enemy. Your repeated attempts to hijack this thread into a discussion of your personal obsessions are, frankly, pathetic. If you want to discuss your obsessions, go for it, but I suggest a new thread would be a more appropriate place.
I would like to hear opinions of those familiar with the issue about the following points:
I would like to know if anyone else believes that political reunification is inevitable or even likely in the next 5 - 10 years because this goes against everything I see.
I believe maintaining the status quo is the best and only option for now. China deciding to attack would lead to a disaster and Taiwan declaring independence qould automatically trigger the attack. Better leave things as they are. The perfect is the enemy of the good. But the status quo means stability in Taiwan and chaos in Taiwan is very dangerous.
I think we agree China would use force at the flimsiest excuse if it could but right now it does not have the military capability. This can change over the next few years due to a number of factors. China’s industry is developing incredibly fast and its shipbuilding capability will soon exceed that of Korea and Japan (if it has not done so already). If things continue to develop at the present rate I think there is no question that in 10 - 20 years China will have some serious military capability. If a situation were to develop in Taiwan which would serve as an excuse for “intervention” and the USA were tied up somewhere else (like Iraq now) I think it is very likely China would take the gamble.
I also think what happens in Hong Kong is crucial to what happens in Taiwan and so far China has been holding HKG on a very short leash. I believe Taiwan takes notes and this works against reunification. Beijing has made it clear that they are the last authority over HKG and will not allow democracy if it means HKG will challenge Beijing. “One country comes before two systems.” There is no way Taiwan would accept this.
My wife is Taiwanese while my father is from HK, so I think I have some insights in this.
First, native Taiwanese are much more pro-Taiwan then before. They regret that a Chinese mainlander such as CKS was the bonehead dictator that pushed the country where it is now: out of any international organizations, unrecognized except by a few 3rd-class countries with thousands massacred or imprisoned during his regime. A regime BTW supported by the US which turned a blind eye on it’s less savory aspects in the name of commie-fighting…
In any case, both pro-Taiwan and pro-reunification camp are proud of the fact that they are now democratic. Rationally, joining forces with China makes sense but not until China itself is democratic (which should happen within a generation if the US doesn’t mess it up). It is not that Taiwanese don’t want to be part of China, it is that Taiwanese don’t want to be under a communist government which is the mirror image of the dictatorship they lived under for so long.
As for China attacking Taiwan… Well, it would be the stupidest thing to do, but China has done stupid things before. After all, in the 50’s they tried to invade Taiwan and 50k Taiwanese died repelling them . Any attempt by China to set foot on Taiwan now will lead to a long and bloody war.
If the current leadership, can keep control on the military all is well, The Chinese government will move slowly but surely turning more and more pro-economy and pro-democracy as the grey heads of the party die out. However, the smallest slip until then and China will have to make good on it’s aggressive talks so as not to lose face. That is where the danger lies. Any attempts at cornering them on this issue will result in a backlash.
It is very important to note that Taiwan is a very strategic island against China that can easily give or take away access to the Pacific.
No way. 20, 30, maybe.
Agreed.
Would depend on the specifics, and which leaders in China, but maybe. I’d say “possible”; not sure about “probable.” The truth is, IMO, not having Taiwan is a useful rallying point for the CCP (it’s like politicians who don’t want to fix a certain problem because they can blame the other party for it) as it deflects internal dissent.
True. There is a fundamental contradiction in “one China, two systems,” and HK proves it.
China would have a chance at reunification if they would treat Taiwan as a bride to be wooed instead of a child to be scolded or a prize to be captured. I don’t think the CCP will ever realize that.
Taiwan’s gonna blockade the entire Chinese coast? Absurd. Their navy isn’t nearly big enough, and if they tried, Taipei would be leveled.
Who said anything about Taiwan doing the blockading alone?
Look at a map:
http://www.sel.barc.usda.gov/scalenet/images/asia.gif
Russia to the North, Japan, South Korea, Okinawa to the East and the Philippines to the south. Taiwan is the only straight line to the Pacific… I’m sure that China would be extra happy to be able to station it’s fleet in Taiwan. Of course, the US too, if relations with China turn sour… Tell me, if it came to a war between China and the rest of it’s neighbors, how effective it’s fleet would be without Taiwan?
Who’s going to help? If you want to try to posit some scenario where it’s China v. the world, well yes, China would lose. But that isn’t what this thread is about and it’s highly implausible.
You are wildly optimistic in assessing Taiwan’s ability to project power over distance. Their navy is purely defensive in its design. They do not have the capacity to do more than assign one or two frigates to each Chinese port. That’s not even close to enough. The truth of the matter is that China is far more likely to blockade Taiwan.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/row/rocn/
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/row/plan/
As far as shipping, from Hong Kong it’s straight south and turn left after the Phillipines. Leaving Shanghai, head due east and stay above 30 north. At all points along the way, ships would be closer to PRC air cover than to ROC attackers. Problem solved.
**Korea: ** Taiwan would be irrelvant.
**Japan: ** Taiwan would be irrelevant
**Phillipines: ** Having Taiwan might help, but Hainan Island and Guangdong are just as close. Why in Og’s name China would be wanting to invade the Phillipines, I’ve no idea. They fight over the Spratleys, but again, those are as close to Guangdong as Taiwan.
**All other neighbors:**Land borders. Taiwan would be irrelvant.
I’m not trying to slam you dude. I agreed with most of what you said earlier. But on this, you’re completely wrong. Taiwan’s strategic importance is in its industry, not its location.
China long felt itself under threat. The US intervention over Taiwan and the Korean war, the Soviet-Sino split, border wars with Russia/Viet Nam/India, etc. China is also trying to lay regional claims regarding oilfields from north Asia down to Indonesia. So, if Taiwan is a driver, it’s one of many. You don’t see a massive push to build an invasion fleet or anything like that. Heck, China’s navy is quite weak.
Maybe I was unclear. I’m saying that economic integration will drive some sort of political settlement. And that will happen in 5-10 years, with me willing to put money on it being sooner rather than later. Direct trade and travel links will come over the next couple of years, and possibly sooner. The number of Taiwanese coming to China for their careers is significant. The number of Taiwanese companies that have moved their production to China has hollowed out most Taiwan industry (I don’t have a handy cite but anyone interested can google and find plenty).
The status quo of not declaring de jeure indepence, and PRC blocking Taiwan from international bodies will change sooner rather than endure until China becomes democratic. IMHO it is simplistic in the extreme to say that Taiwan and China will reunify after democracy takes root in China. Look at the EU, where there is still individual national sovereignity, as one possible example. I’ll repeat, there will be some sort of economic integration soon, and that will cause significant political changes in the status quo. I make no prediction on what that’s going to look like, only that it will be significantly different.
As for military action, I’ve said this before and it’s worth repeating. Taiwan has the capability to create nuclear weapons. (High tech manufacturing, 6 or more nuclear power plants, a very high number of PhD’s, a meglomanic dictator in Chiang Kai-shek). With a GIANT belligerent neighbor, it would be naive to think Chiang Kai-shek did not put together some nukes and then threatened Beijing with retailiation in the event of an invasion. Of course it is a MAD strategy as the surviving Chinese military would then leave Taiwan as radioactive dust. It doesn’t exactly make me happy to think I probably live in the number 1 or number 2 target city. Nukes make the whole invasion scenario moot.
I think one important aspect concerning the number of Taiwanese living/working/studying in China has been overlooked. A very large percentage of these Taiwanese live very segregated lives from the Mainlanders. They thrive in tiny little Taibei's, which have a very distinct feeling from other areas. This is a subtle, but very important point--i.e. the vast majority of Taiwanese have a separate identity from the Mainland and have very little compuction or desire to deny themselves this unique identity. I have yet to meet a substantial number of Taiwanese who identify themselves as Chinese. In my experience the Taiwanese act, think, dress, and speak as different from the mainland as the Chinese disapora that can be found elsewhere in Asia.
My prediction: no unification based on economic ties as there is very little for the mainland to offer above and beyond this. If the business conditions in the Mainland soured tomorrow, the Taiwanese would have no compunction about picking up and investing in say Thailand.
As for the "Da Lu'ers" being blindly fanatic about the Taiwan issue--I agree. The Chinese government has painted itself into such a corner concerning reunification that there is very little room for compromise. Beijing has stated previously that it has hinged its very legitimacy on this very issue. Hopefully, the economic costs associated with any cross-strait adventures will triumph blind nationalism.And oh boy, what a proud history that is.
Frankly, this is one of the absolute ugliest sides of China’s history and people. And I hope it’s one that fades, not grows, as time goes on. Unfortunately, hard core, psychologically tailored indoctrination begins from day one, and threats of detainment for dissent last for life.
Taiwan was only ever briefly a part of China.
Sure, they’d be thrown in prison if they announced support for it.
Well, that separate identity works in their favor as they have the image of being richer and more powerful. I have read there are very large numbers of Taiwanese businessmen who spend enough time on the mainland to have revived the custom of the second wife / concubine. A middle manager in Taiwan with an average salary is a rich man in China and he would want to cultivate that image.
I do not think the process will be quick but the ties are there and growing and they represent the best hope that the issue will not turn violent.
Yes, it is often the case that country leaders use nationalism as a tool and then it becomes uncontrollable and the only escape is forward. Argentina and the Falklands come to mind. I am reminded of what Churchill said about Hitler and Mussolini: “They are riding tigers they dare not dismount”. Once you excite nationalistic fervor it can be very tricky to turn around and not be devoured by the masses yourself.
This is just nonsense. The Chinese people may not have the freedom to publish freely in the media but to believe they live in constant fear of the police knocing on their door for expressing some political thought is just ludicrous and shows a stereotype which is no less propaganda.
Anyone who has spent any time in China knows once you know people they will talk freely about their views and they are not afraid the police will come knocking. The notion that they support the notion of one China just because they are afraid to say anything else is ludicrous and shows deep ignornce of what China is like today.
I suppose there are times of chaos and revolution when people are afraid to speak up even in private but there is no country in the world with a stable economy and relative order where people live scared for their lives. It just doesn’t happen and the notion that it does is just plain silly.
The notion that all the Chinese people live in constant fear of their government is just silly. People in china live no more afraid than people in any other country. As long as they refrain from very public expressions against the government I have not seen anyone who was afraid to tell me what they thought. And the fact is they feel strongly about Taiwan.
By “native Taiwanese,” do you mean all people born in Taiwan; or the non-Chinese aborigines; or Han-Chinese whose ancestors were living in Taiwan before the Kuomintang fled across the sea?
From the Encarta:
There is some truth in what you say, but I think you’re talking about a relatively small minority rather than the majority. The Taiwanese in China are largely integrated. Do they go native? No. The Taiwanese live like most of the non PRC natives - that is, live in nicer areas, send kids to either local schools or to Taiwanese/overseas Chinese schools, etc. They don’t live in isolated enclaves. No differnet from myself.
I know quite a few Taiwanese, and rented my condo to 3 of them last year.
Those who speak Meinanhua tend to stick with other Meinanhua speakers. Not at all unusual to see a Taiwanese, Singaporean, Malaysian and Mainlander from Fujian hanging out together.
The days have long since passed when you could identify a Hong Kongese, Taiwanese, Overseas Chinese by their dress and language. It was true in the 1980’s but certainly not now.
In my experience and awful lot of people in Taiwan identify themselves as culturally Chinese. Very few identify as Chinese as we should all be one political entity.
Mainland press is reporting that the big issue with the election is that owing to the shooting of Chen Shui-bian, that the military and police were mobilized against unrest. As a result, a very large and significant number of the police and military were unable to vote. Futher alledged that these people tend to vote KMT rather than DPP.
I haven’t seen anything about this in the international press.
Can anyone in Taiwan comment on this?
This nearly always refers to the latter. The aborigines are a very, very small population. For that matter, their views are probably the same as the “Taiwanese.”
Yep, that is what I had in mind.
I would also put forward that since the KMT (and most mainlanders that came with CKS) were and kept power for many years in the capital, Taipei, that is also their power base for the party. That is also were people who benefited the most from the dictatorship were. So woudn’t surprise me if the only significant pro-KMT protests were in Taipei!
Personnally, even with those economic and social justification for some, I just don’t understand Taiwanese that would support a party that is derived from that dictatorship, a party that would go as far as accusing the opposing side of being fascists (oh the irony! too bad Godwin’s law cannot be invoke in public life) and that was completly corrupt when it was in power. A party that would rather “shoot the country in the foot” by undermining it’s democracy publically… It can only be blindness to their own history, stupidity, cronyism and inertia!!
Anyway, would be nice if some pro-KMT guy could offer his views on this to help me understand…