Artificial Intelligence, is this truly a possibility or will man’s best friend always be canine? Could I be looking at 30 more years of tedium in the workplace, or will Rob the Robot take my place so that I might improve my golf swing??
Depends on what you do, natch.
Some jobs, a half-trained monkey could do tomorrow; other jobs, no computer might ever handle the subtle nuances.
Don’t confuse artificial intelligence with artificial consciousness. AI is in practice all around you, so not only is it a possibility, it’s a reality.
As for artificial consciousness, the experts seem to fall generally into two camps (a) those with a computational bent and (b) those with a biological bent. Many in the computational camp subscribe to a concept known as Strong AI. Strong AI suggests that if we build a computer powerful enough and sufficiently complex, it will eventually organize itself into a conscious entity. Most in the biological camp feel that we have yet to discover appropriate models and that perhaps we will never be able to comprehend and synthesize consciousness due to the way the human mind is abstracted.
Get real. Remember what they said in the 50’s? “By the year 2000, we will all be working 20 hour weeks, etc, because machines will do the work”, or some such blather. Are you?
No, under the capitalist system, AI will not be used in the interest of working people, but to maximize profits, just as all other scientific advances are. The robot will work along side of you and you will have to keep up and be paid what it costs to maintain a robot. Your dog will still be your best friend, but you will never see him because you will only work, eat, and sleep.
But you won’t sleep very much. Barely enough to function. Many people are already at that point.
If you have a curiosity upon this subject I highly recommend the following books:
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence by Ray Kurzweil
Robot : Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind
by Hans P. Moravec
(Both available at Amazon.com)
IMHO Artificial Intellects (Artilects) or Artificial Consciousness’ are possible and going to happen within the next 30 years baring societal disaster or stagnation in technological progress. I think it will turn life as we know it upside down, inside out and backwards. Hope I live to see it…whether ultimately it is good for humanity or not. It will certainly be interesting!
The predictions in the 50’s were inaccurate, because they miscalculated their estimates of the “computing” power of the human brain and the immense challenge of AI/AC. We have much better data now regarding the computing power necessary, as well as our rate of progress in computer technology.
IMO the human brain is a biological computer. We may not understand it any time soon, but within 30 years I expect we will be able to reverse engineer it, or copy all the data within it in order to create artificial consciousness within some other medium.
I realize that the OP was looking for a factual answer, and I’d love to see a factual answer myself, but we won’t get that until we actually build the durn things. For now, all we can do on the subject is debate it, so I’ll move it over to GD.
I am not sure if we could ever create a machine that was truly conscious and self-aware. I think it’s a possibility, but we don’t really know enough about how our minds work to truly create new ones yet.
On the other hand, I am 100% certain, if trends continue as they are, that we will be able to create SIMULATIONS of a conscious, self-aware mind that would be indistinguishable from a real one. One would simply need a large database that catalogues how a human mind would react to every possible stimuli the simulated intelligence would encounter. What’s the difference? Well, nothing as far as those who are interacting with the program would know.
Robbespiere:
Such a pessimist, and really… already proven wrong by practice. Here’s a few examples of AI in action for the common man… er… person… er… intelligent entity:
- So many computer games it would be futile to try and list them all
- Voice, character, and hand writing recognition
- Some spelling and grammar checkers
- Many internet search engines
- Some data file compressors
- Some home security systems
- Image comparison utilities
- Some financial and investment software
These are just a few I thought of off the top of my head.
Also, AI is being used extensively in industry for visual inspections. While you might argue that this is a purely profit motivated example, I suggest that it allows people who used to do these jobs to move on to more reqarding and less tedious jobs.
Beetle:
Of course, you probably feel that way because all of the books you quote (quite good books, really) have a strong AI bias. For a different opinion, try Roger Penrose. His books,
“The Emperor’s New Mind” and “Shadows of the Mind” try to take a different approach to answering this question. These are among some of the best books I’ve ever read and cover a lot more than just AI. I can give you a few other good books, as well, that don’t favor strong AI - if you’re interested.
Interesting theory, but I think you’ve underestimated the task. What you’re suggesting is that if we can build a brain it will have a consciousness. This is the same error as assuming that if aliens physically copied a personal computer that it would automatically have an operating system and applications. Even if we could build an artificial brain of sufficient complexity and proper architecture, what makes you think we’d know how to load in the software?
Badtz:
If it’s indistinguishable, then it’s consciousness… or rather, if you cannot demonstrate that it is not consciousness, you must assume that it is. Your certainty about the inevitability of simulated consciousness is not shared by many experts. Certainly few believe that consciousness could be simulated with a database/recall approach. The fact is, we do not have the slightest idea what a consciousness model looks like (though we do know quite well what it doesn’t look like). To disprove your point consider the following basic example. One of the characteristics of consciouness is output without input stimulii. In other words, self stimulation and innovation. A database would be incapable of this.