So, I’m planning to fly from Tucson to Dallas around the end of March to go to a sci-fi convention some friends are doing in College Station (AggieCon, woo!). At the moment, if I fly out on Friday morning and come back Sunday, it’ll cost me a bit over $200, but I have yet to figure out who will be able to drive me to College Station and back.
So, the question is, if I wait until, say, Februrary, is the cost of airfare likely to be much higher for a run between Tucson and Dallas? Renting a car may be an option, but I’m only 22, so it would likely be an expensive option.
Also, if I wanted to know how much it cost to buy tickets in, say, March of 2005, for comparison, where could I find that information?
The cost of tickets in March of 2005 will probably have minimal correlation to the cost of tickets in March of 2007. Actually, I don’t even know how you would determine a price, since it seems everyone pays a different amount depending on when they purchase and the phase of the moon when they place the order.
Better might be to compare the price of a flight in a couple of weeks, say Dec 8-10, to your intended travel time to get an idea of how much the price goes up over time on that route. But who is to say what fare wars, route additions/deletions, airline bankruptcies, terrorist attacks, etc, might happen between now and March? A bit over $200 sounds pretty cheap for any flight these days.
Yeah, but like I said, the main concern is making arrangements with people on the other end. I’d hate to book a flight, only to find out it’ll be impossible for anyone to pick me up from the airport or to drop me off on time for my flight back.
The basic rule of thumb for air travel pricing is this:
“If the students are out the price goes up.”
Granted, this is affected in large part due to supply and demand (more people able to travel and therefore competing for space when students are on holiday) but the airlines know this and tend to price accordingly.
Rabbit - travel agent w/over 10 years experience in the biz. (Mind you I’m in Canada and the US market is actually fairly different).
I worked for IT and we helped design an system. How it works is they feed data in to they system. And then they feed “what ifs.” The system assumes that past behaviors repeat. Then the computer spits out different senerios. Then the analyst sets a price based on what he believes will happen. For instance if in 2005 there was a snow storm he can enter that data and the computer model recalculates weighting the year 2005 less then spits out data.
The point is NOT to make a profit but to make the MAXIMUM profit. But here is the killler. Analyst and Revenue Mangers get bonuses for “perfect sells” So if they can fill a plane (or hotel) up exaclty without bumping they get money. So they will often tweak the computer models.
Furthermore the computer models are designed to maximize profit, not sell out. The fact is if a plane leaves with one empty seat the reservation alnalyst then must feed into the model WHY he failed. He is not likely to tell the truth because his boss sees this. So there is a fudge factor.
That is how they systems should work.
The best thing to do is to set a maximum price and I call the airline direct and speak to the agents. A lot of them have been working 10 or more years. I say “I can spend $200.00” is there any chance of me getting a ticket in May for this. And if they start to half way laugh I know it’s hopeless. Of course you book it online, but agents help you more than you think.
Oh, I get it, the projections only go 3 months ahead. Anyhow, figured $198 (including fees) was gonna be hard to beat, so I went ahead and booked the flight with American, giving myself enough wiggle room on the other end so I can work around my friends’ schedules for picking me up and dropping me off.
Plus, at $198, it costs less than driving will, by my (somewhat pessimistic) estimates. Now I just have to figure in another $20 or so for parking for the weekend, and money to spend while in Texas (I have a list of resteraunts I have to hit while I’m in town: Freebirds, Taco Cabana, China King, and Shipley’s Donuts, not to mention spending money at the convention I’m going to).