It’s not “break with reality” so much as “winning the election is the highest level of reality.” At this point, it’s “screw Iraq (OK, it always has been ‘screw Iraq’; that’s nothing new), screw Putin; the election’s five days away, and we’re desperate.” They figure that if they can pull it out, they can figure out how to make it up to Putin later; if they lose, then Putin’s not their problem anymore.
These countries undoubtedly could acquire these dual use explosives on their own. However, acquisition via black market does lend itself to plausible deniability. Of couse, it may well be simpler for a country to divert such explosives from either indigenous production sites or from orders for legitimate uses [such as in oil drilling]. I have no idea what would be easier. Of course, if the price were right. . .
I suspect that no matter when the stuff went missing and no matter whether the stuf was sold first or used directly by those who ‘liberated’ it from where it was kept, it was a knowledgeable member of the former military. Not only would it’ve taken the coordinated cooperation of a number of people, it would’ve taken someone who knew it was there in the first place. A member of the former military could’ve already had people in place and had a distribution/storage arrangement established, and thus seems more likely to’ve been able to pull this off quickly and surreptitiously than an unassissted operation of an outside agency.
Given that this stuff is apparently da bomb of bomb making materials it undoubtedly has an appreciable resale value. So, the parties with the sticky fingers may’ve retrieved the goods with merely an eye on their nest egg.
Another option to toss around -freelancers.
Possibly a former officer freelanced and decided to hedge his bets. He decided he’d better acquire some stock for a post invasion arms dealership. Maybe make enough to buy a new life in a foreign country. He came and filled a couple of pick up trucks at a time, (or even used military vehicles). Maybe he told his buddies who came and got some of their own. Maybe they all worked together. Given the notorious level of corruption in Iraq, this could’ve started after the IAEA inspection and before American troops arrived. Or, it just as easily could’ve happened after American troops had been there. Other sensitive sites were looted to the foundations. It’s not like this was the only non-secure site.
indigenous production sites
e. Warheads, Explosives, and Rocket/Missile Propulsion
A number of countries (including certain developing countries) have some capability of producing standard explosives such as TNT, RDX, nitroglycerin, ammonium perchlorate, metal fuels, hydrazine, and related compounds for military use. The U.S., France, the U.K., and Japan are the world leaders in formulation and production of advanced explosives and propellants.)
oil drilling
ISLAND PYROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES (IPI)
… a specific grade of RDX containing 1% desensitizing wax and 0.5% graphite for the oil drilling industry. This grade of RDX is used to produce shaped charges such as open-faced perforators and encapsulated perforators.
Of course they’re not. But their denial could be expected if they were involved.
Very true. Either way, scary.
Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the Director of Central Intelligence on Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (huge .pdf)
Vol2 p 72 (79)
• Through a series of interviews with former MIC and NMD officials, ISG has discovered that Iraq since 1991 did not disclose the IRFNA production capability at Al Qa’qa’a to the UN. One NMD official claimed that Husayn Kamil had passed an order not to declare this capability to the UN and this order was observed even after Husayn Kamil’s death. Other officials claim that Iraq decided to withhold the IRFNA production capability of Al Qa’qa’a for fear that the UN would destroy the plant, virtually closing Iraq’s extensive munitions industries.
Al Qa’qa’a was the heart of "Iraq’s extensive munitions industries."
I hate to interrupt the fun, but there’s one thing that’s gotten lost among all the Bush apologists trying to spin when the explosives disappeared from Al Qaqaa that I feel should be reiterated.
We (meaning the United States) knew the explosives gone by mid-2003, so why did it take so long for this news to come out?
I mean, last I checked, we’re still supposed to be an open and democratic society, aren’t we? Which means we (the citizenry) should be kept informed of what’s going on in Iraq, even when it proves embarassing to the President. So why weren’t we? Or does Bush think we’re all mushrooms, who should be kept in the dark and fed whatever bovine ca-ca he wants to throw at us?
And no, I don’t buy the “We didn’t want the terrorists to know” excuse – that story only works if you think the folks who were smart enough to loot Al Qaqaa were also dumb enough to think it was a talcum powder factory.
I’m not sure if it’s germane or not, but what’s “IRFNA”?
Still, that pretty much shuts the door on any remotely reasonable excuse for the Bush Administration’s failing to keep track of what was happening with Al Qaqaa.
In theory.
But with all they’ve been hiding from us, we’re going to need a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, like they had in Chile or South Africa, once we finally kick the Bushies out.
Inhibited Red Fuming Nitric Acid
Sounds nice. Quick, use it in a sentence!
For all it’s worth, there were ex-Soviet top military doing something secret in Iraq just before the invasion.
This article from Russian web media, first published April 2 2003, gives some information.
Oh my god. That directly contradicts the quote “…because all Russian military experts left Iraq when the international sanctions were introduced during the 1991 Gulf War” from my cite. Why why why would the Russians help Saddam, in any way?
That’s a helluva find. Where’d you get that?
Russian involvement or not, it’s starting to get chilly.
sigh I want to fast-forward and read the book.
I don’t know but whatever the reason, the fact that it came out now is all the Democrats and the UN’s fault. 
And, how has the Iraqi Ministry of Science and Technology become an organ for the UN or the Democrats? Don’t ask distracting questions.
“He said there had been no Russian special forces in Iraq, only civilian specialists working for foreign firms.”
As of April 15, 2004, per Paul Bremmer, al Qa Qaa was extensively looted and trashed. He estimated, according to a regulation he issued, that more than one third of the buildings were destroyed, and looting and destruction of machines was estimated to be 85%. What strikes me as odd is that this massive level of destruction and looting is not mentioned by either of the news crews, nor in any other reporting from April of 2003. It kind of sounds like it might have happened sometime after they were there.
Here’s a PDF of the regulation:
Here’s a link to where I found it:
According to that story, those were retired officers. Free-lance, mercenary military advisors, not agents of the Russian government. So, no, I don’t see any reason to believe they took the explosives with them back to Russia.
Bush says they weren’t bothering with that cache because they were looking for WMDs? Let’s see: 380 metric tonnes (1000 kg each) equals about 419 tons (2000 lbs each). If the explosive power of the material lost is rated at 1.75 times that of TNT, this gives us a yield of 733.25 tons or .73 kilotons if the whole pile were to be loaded on a ship and exploded at a dock in New York harbor. Little Boy had a yield of about 15 kilotons, so while we aren’t in Hiroshima territory, we are closing in on the explosive power of a one-kiloton suitcase nuke. But this wasn’t a weapon of mass destruction and thus not worth looking after. :rolleyes:
It’s 350 metric tonnes. 380 already been converted.
Apparently the total may be 100+ tons shy of this even as some of the RDX reported by the Iraqis is said to’ve been an old inaccurate tally.
Please excuse me if the following news article has already been addressed. I think that it adds to RT Firefly’s comment:
An excerpt from this Earthlink news story:
Why wasn’t securing the site part of their mission? I realize that the area is extremely large. Did we need more troops on the ground?
DtC, I have to disagree with you. Dodging the draft is honorable under certain circumstances, true. I also think that going AWOL is honorable under circumstances. It is not honorable to advocate war, use your Daddy’s power to jump line to secure a relatively safe situation while someone else takes your place in combat and then go AWOL.
Razorsharp, I don’t want you to misunderstand the peace movement. Most people who were against the war did not turn a “blind eye” to “draft dodgers.” Many were actively involved in helping young men to find ways to avoid the draft and are proud that they were able to make a contribution in that way. Whether you understand it or not, it was a matter of conscience.
Quite right. Pip, pip. Good show, that.
There is no indication that they have. In fact, there is no indication what they were doing in Iraq at all. As for retired, please note they came on the losing side of anti-Gorbachev putsch, which means they were hard-core Soviet military top brass. Such people have deep roots in Russia still. Of course they were not officially connected to Kremlin. Just like US advisors in Afghanistan in 1980-s didn’t know what ‘Pentagon’ is.
Here’s another vignette from April 6, 2003. It involves US troops shooting Russian diplomatic convoy speeding into Syria.