There probably isn’t one. This partially feeds off of the anger/disgust/what have you in this thread. My irritation is a little more isolated purely on the idea that there is some great October surprise out there that someone evil (most likely Karl Rove according to this board) is just waiting to unleash so all heck can break loose and swing this election around.
But the secret? It’s not likely to happen. It was probably cute and kitschy for someone to predict it back when people paid less attention to this kind of thing. But now, most well-read people, which certainly constitutes a majority of this board, are well aware of the concept. Thusly, I’d be inclined to say that no campaign worth it’s salt is going to just sit back with secret “Kerry does midgets videotapes” or “Bush mangles his wife’s name in bed audio”. As soon as something of marginal magnitude happens the press, blogs, and people have a clue or even think they have a clue will immediately begin crowing that the big October surprise is happening. Sometimes, a thing is just a thing. No ulterior motive, no massive amounts of planning, hiding, and preparation. Just because the Swift Boat Vets release an ad or the UN releases a report or Karl Rove blows his nose and sees the outline of a Heinz ketchup bottle means nothing.
Really, how many October surprises have there been? Besides the supposed beast that started it all, what other instances of something occuring have mattered in such a way that an election was fundamentally changed? It’s just more stories blown wildly out of proportion by the media and people freakishly charged up over an election that is near the end. Much like shark attacks and flu shots, it’s not the story that matters. It’s the pundits, talking heads, reaction shots, and loud/angry prognosticating that is really driving everyone into a lather.
At this point we have 108 posts from the last 6 months saying something like here is the surprise, the surprise is coming, what might the surprise be. Just let it go. A story comes out? Just wait a little bit and see if it really fits the criteria of an election or life altering announcement. See if it is actually true. See if it really matters in a substantive enough way to make people turn their heads for even a second. The more this keeps up, the more it’s turning into Peter and the wolf.
Nice picking and choosing in your summary, World Eater. From the same article:
…
So, let’s see. The troops have found and have either destroyed or are in the process of destroying over 400,000 tons of munitions. Even if it is the fault of the administration (and it isn’t, but for sake of argument, we’ll say it is), that is 380 tons vs. 400,000 tons. That’s .000935 of the weapons so far. That’s less than a tenth of one percent of the weapons recovered so far.
I can’t argue with that. I would post a lengthier tirade on how tired I am of people whining about the campaigns, but it’s easier to take a cheap shot and move on. Especially when I teach in 20 minutes.
The campaigns are irrelevent. People should be pissed off about the PRESIDENT and his total incompetence, running up 2 trillion dollars in debt and killing thousands of people on a needless war. That’s not negative campaigning, it’s fact. If the truth is too ugly for your pretty little ears, then just turn off the TV and put on some Yanni music.
If people didn’t constantly talk about October surprises, they could still work, and would be used. The constant reminders to watch for an October surprise are specifically to (try to) keep them from happening.
No October surprise by the Evil Bush Company? Shucks.
The Evil Bush Company was going to lower gasoline prices right before the election. Didn’t happen. Rats.
But there’s still hope: The Evil Bush Company’s plot to cancel the election still could happen.
If the election does take place, then we’ll be reduced to this: If Kerry doesn’t win, it will be because the Evil Bush Company rigged the voting machines.
If Kerry does win, what will all of our resident conspiracy theorists do, jump off a building or somethin’?
Damn if I won’t be glad when this here 'lection gets done with!
Dagnabbit, that is what I meant to reference. And yet, Peter and the wolf sounded so correct. Maybe I’ll just put this post in the brain farts thread in MPSIMS.
I apologize if using what is an apt analogy qualifies as boring and predictable. Perhaps I should have referenced the Simpsons episode where Bart avoids a test by saying his ovaries hurt, gets attacked by a wolf in the hallway, and then gone into a witty rejoinder preceded by [Groundskeeper Willie]
Just so I don’t fall out of the boring and predictable mold you have put me in, perhaps the old “Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach” would fit in this part.
World Eater: How is this snippet of news any different from anything else that has come out of the middle east over the past year or so? What about this is so different that you think it qualifies as an “October Surprise”? What about this mundane tale constitutes grasping at straws?
To me it looks like just another ho-hum every day news release.
