Al Qaqaa: where the roadside bombs come from

[PatriotX]

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/chemstry/chemstry.htm

Strength of Explosives

The determining factor in the conversion of the heat of explosion into mechanical work is the amount of product gases available for expansion. In the case of TNT, 10 moles of gas are produced for each mole of explosive. We can exploit this fact to make predictions about the actual explosive strength of other chemicals. This is known as the Berthelot approximation, which states that the relative explosive strength of a material (as compared to TNT on a mass basis) may be calculated on the basis of two factors:

the change in internal energy (DE) and

the amount of gas produced. If we combine these factors and put in values for our reference, TNT, we obtain:

Relative Strength (%) = 840 Dn DE /MW2

where:
Dn = the number of moles of gas per mole of explosive
DE = the heat of explosion in kJ/mol
MW = molecular weight of explosive in g/mol

The factor of 840 accounts for the units and values of DE and Dn for TNT.

Example- calculate the Berthelot relative strength for RDX

RDX: C3H6N6O6 3CO + 3H2O + 3N2

MW = 222 g/mol
Dn = 9 mol

DEf (before)= 83.82 kJ/mol

DEf (after) = 3(-111.8) + 3(-240.6) = -1057.2 kJ/mol

Therefore:
RS = 840 (9) (83.82 + 1057.2)/2222
RS = 175 %

The relative explosive strength calculated in this manner is of limited use. What is really important is the actual strength which can only be measured by experiment. There are a variety of standard tests, most of which involve a direct measurement of the work performed. Here are some example measurements for RDX:

Ballistic mortar test: 140 %
Trauzl block test: 186 %
Sand crush test: 136 %

all of which compare favorably with our Berthelot approximation.

[Squink]

@SimonX

What I mean is that maybe they were too busy…

OK, I’ve just seen the ‘didn’t know’ excuse so many times that it makes me a little touchy. Have you read McClellan’s performance in today’s press gaggle yet? He’s still not up to Fleischer’s standard for BS, but he’s making progress.

[elucidator]

@Left Hand of Dorkness

…Err…sorry. Having a Dylan moment…

Have another.

“But you and I have been through this
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now
The hour is getting late…”

[PatriotX]

The counter spin is that te stuff was already gone by the time we made it to Baghdad.

Roger L. Simon’s Blog entry, The Latest Salvo… points one to the Captain’s Quarters Blog entry 380 Tons Of Explosives Missing – But When?“The Administration acknowledged that it [the explosives] disappeared after the last IAEA inspection, which occurred before the invasion. After the US invaded Iraq and visited Al-Qaqaa, they checked for but saw no IAEA seals and bypassed the bunker for more critical missions.”

[Squink]

The counter spin is that the stuff was already gone by the time we made it to Baghdad

That won’t hold:

At the Pentagon, an official who monitors developments in Iraq said U.S.-led coalition troops had searched Al Qaqaa in the immediate aftermath of the March 2003 invasion and confirmed that the explosives were intact. Thereafter the site was not secured by U.S. forces, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Bush Says He’s The One To Keep America Safe

[Airblairxxx]

Let’s also keep in mind that even if the stuff was gone by the time troops got there, that still doesn’t exonerate GWB:

@New York Times

I.A.E.A. experts say they assume that just before the invasion the Iraqis followed their standard practice of moving crucial explosives out of buildings, so they would not be tempting targets. If so, the experts say, the Iraqi must have broken seals from the arms agency on bunker doors and moved most of the HMX to nearby fields, where it would have been lightly camouflaged - and ripe for looting.

But the Bush administration would not allow the agency back into the country to verify the status of the stockpile.** In May 2004, Iraqi officials say in interviews, they warned L. Paul Bremer III, the American head of the occupation authority, that Al Qaqaa had probably been looted. It is unclear if that warning was passed anywhere.**

Any idea on why Mr Bremer can’t show his face to refute this, anyone? Besides the fact it’s being held underneath a White House pillow ever since his comments about needing more troops in Iraq on October 5?

[Atticus_Finch]

The idea that there was a plan to give weapons to terrorists is ridiculous, as many people have pointed out. However, the truth may be fairly close to this.

We know that the theft occurred in April of last year, when there wasn’t really an organized insurgency yet. Squink’s 9:12 post makes it clear that the theft occurred after Saddam’s regime had crumbled. Yet this was a big operation - there were only a few groups around with the manpower and the hundred or so truckloads needed to ferry this stuff away. These groups were the US armed forces and Ahmed Chalabi’s Iraqi Free Forces militia. We can safely rule out the US forces, so all that’s left that would be capable of pulling off such an operation at that time would be Chalabi’s forces.

This is all supposition, but we do know that the US supplied the Chalabi forces with funding, arms, access to the war zone etc. We also know that Chalabi was allowed to take truckloads of records on dissidents etc from the Baathist intelligence agencies. What’s a few hundred tons of high explosives amongst friends?

[Airblairxxx]

@Atticus Finch

We know that the theft occurred in April of last year, when there wasn’t really an organized insurgency yet.

No, we don’t.

[Atticus_Finch]

@Airblairxxx

No, we don’t.

Sure we do.

From a NYT piece on the issue (registration may be required):

Earlier this month, in a letter to the I.A.E.A. in Vienna, a senior official from Iraq’s Ministry of Science and Technology wrote that the stockpile disappeared **after early April 2003 ** because of “the theft and looting of the governmental installations due to lack of security.”

<snip>

In May 2004, Iraqi officials say in interviews, they warned L. Paul Bremer III, the American head of the occupation authority, that Al Qaqaa had probably been looted. It is unclear if that warning was passed anywhere. Efforts to reach Mr. Bremer by telephone were unsuccessful.

This appears to be borne out by the official line from the White House. McClellan’s briefing on the issue, as reported by Talking Points Memo:

I think you’re taking this out of context of what was going on. This was reported missing after – when the interim government informed that** these munitions went missing some time after April 9th of 2003**, remember, that was when we were still involved in major military action at that point. And there were a number of important priorities at that point.

So they were they were there in March or early April, as Squink’s cite suggests. The White House briefing suggests that they were known to be there as late as 9 April 2003. They disappeared after this point, and were reported missing in May. So they were stolen between mid-April and May.

[laigle]

Guys, guys, relax. There’s no reason to expect this is being used against our troops in Iraq. It could be part of Iran/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia’s nuclear weapons program. And the target might not even be in Iraq, they might be planning to blow things up in Europe or America. This whole idea that they’re going to blow up our troops is just supposition.

[Cervaise]

*must

control

fist

of

death*
So instead I shall deploy the ballot of extremely pissed-off opposition.

And I wait for one of the Republican dittoheads to come in here and try to explain why this is not only not a problem but a glorious victory in a perfectly executed plan. It’ll probably be a while, because the official talking points they’ll be regurgitating haven’t been finalized yet.

How anybody can look at this gang and not see criminal incompetence is utterly beyond me.

And yeah, the thread title needs to be changed.

Fuck.

[jshore]

@Atticus Finch

So they were they were there in March or early April, as Squink’s cite suggests. The White House briefing suggests that they were known to be there as late as 9 April 2003. They disappeared after this point, and were reported missing in May. So they were stolen between mid-April and May.

As I read it, that is between April 2003 and May 2004.

[Squink]

@Atticus Finch

Yet this was a big operation - there were only a few groups around with the manpower and the hundred or so truckloads needed to ferry this stuff away. These groups were the US armed forces and Ahmed Chalabi’s Iraqi Free Forces militia. We can safely rule out the US forces, so all that’s left that would be capable of pulling off such an operation at that time would be Chalabi’s forces.

Here’s a couple other possibilities:
•The Fedayeen Saddam, which is apparently still active in one form or another.
•Disgruntled elements of the Iraqi army or police forces, which Bremer disbanded in May 2003.

[Atticus_Finch]

@jshore

As I read it, that is between April 2003 and May 2004.

On a second reading, you’re right - May 2004 was the date of reporting. Sorry about that. However, we still have a number of people, including McClellan, stating that the theft occurred in the first month or two after the invasion.

Squink, we’d have to be talking about a large and well-organized group which is able to drive a large number of trucks right under the noses of US troops. I’m not sure the remnants of the Iraqi army / police would be capable of this a few weeks after the US arrived. I don’t know a great deal about the Fedayeen Saddam, but I thought that they largely acted as a paramilitary force during the “major combat operations” and had melted away to join various resistance groups by the time of the theft. Once again, I’m not sure they’d be capable of this. YMMV.

[flickster]

NBC News Report (per Drudge)

In an election week rush:

**ABCNEWS Mentioned The Iraq Explosives Depot At Least 4 Times
**CBSNEWS Mentioned The Iraq Explosives Depot At Least 7 Times
**MSNBC Mentioned The Iraq Explosives Depot At Least 37 Times
**CNN Mentioned The Iraq Explosives Depot At Least 50 Times

But tonight, NBCNEWS reported, once: The 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives were already missing back in April 10, 2003 – when U.S. troops arrived at the installation south of Baghdad! An NBCNEWS crew embedded with troops moved in to secure the Al-Qaqaa weapons facility on April 10, 2003, one day after the liberation of Iraq.

According to NBCNEWS, the HMX and RDX explosives were already missing when the American troops arrived.

It is not clear why the NYTIMES failed to report the cache had been missing for 18 months – and was reportedly missing before troops even arrived.

Apologies if this report has already been mentioned.

[Brutus]

Man, if it wasn’t for bad luck, the Lefty attack machine would have no luck. I wonder what their spin on this will be? Should have attacked sooner? Should have employed teleporters and/or time-travel to secure the site? And they were sooo gleeful in trying to pin this on Dubya…Ah well.

[elucidator]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62731-2004Oct25.html

…U.N. and Iraqi officials indicated the explosives were lost while the country was under U.S. occupation. But U.S. officials suggested that the munitions may have disappeared before the U.S.-led forces established full control over the country. They said a search of the facility by U.S. troops shortly after the fall of Baghdad last year turned up no evidence of the explosives…

…The letter from Mohammad J. Abbas, a senior official in the Iraqi Ministry of Science and Technology, said that nearly 215 tons of HMX, 156 tons of RDX and 6 tons of PETN had gone missing after* April 9, 2003, the day Baghdad fell to U.S. forces.* The letter blamed a “lack of security” for the loss…

(emphasis added)

Still, not to be too hasty. It would be a shame for GeeDubya’s spotless record for probity and candor to be needlessly besmirched. (insert neutron-density sarcasm smiley here…)

[Evil_Captor]

@Brutus

Man, if it wasn’t for bad luck, the Lefty attack machine would have no luck. I wonder what their spin on this will be? Should have attacked sooner? Should have employed teleporters and/or time-travel to secure the site? And they were sooo gleeful in trying to pin this on Dubya…Ah well.

Brutus, why do you hate America?

[Brutus]

@Evil Captor

Brutus, why do you hate America?

It was almost witty when you guys started with that schtick. Almost. Now? It just sounds amazingly stupid.

[Atticus_Finch]

@Brutus

Man, if it wasn’t for bad luck, the

Lefty attack machine would have no luck. I wonder what their spin on this will be? Should have attacked sooner? Should have employed teleporters and/or time-travel to secure the site? And they were sooo gleeful in trying to pin this on Dubya…Ah well
[/quote]

I think NBC has their story garbled. Scott McClellan, the Bush Administration press secretary (and noted member of the Lefty attack machine), in the most recent briefing (as cited by the White House website):

MR. McCLELLAN: You’re trying – I think you’re taking this out of context of what was going on. This was reported missing after – when the interim government informed that these munitions went missing some time after April 9th of 2003, remember, that was when we were still involved in major military action at that point. And there were a number of important priorities at that point.