Gobear:
All things happen context.
Without the 11 September events do you seriously think there would have been any commitment for this?
Tamerlane has aleady hit on the main points but let me expand.
Nothing happens in a vacuum. If you think that the Islamic world or Russia or even the Central Asian Republics or even the Afghans would have had the same reaction pre-9/11 then you don’t know jack about history or international relations. I am reminded of the academics who argue that England and the West should have gone to war against Hitler in 1937. All this abstracts away from reality. You will recall Pakistani support for the Taleban, among others.
For my part, I have no regrets about my pre 11 September comments and I stand by them, every motherfucking word. And I will add that if America tries social-engineering in those areas of Afghanistan where Taleban social rules have a real echo, it will get itself in a world of shit.
The real world pre-11 September was one in which the USA had little to no leverage in the region, where our actual on the ground intelligence was shit and where we did not understand or “care” about the problem in the region. Look at the god damn motherfucking pre 11 September threads. “Why should we care about the Mid East” Suspended motherfucking peanut particles and so forth…
Attack Taleban pre 11 September and what casus belli do you have? They don’t have the culture you want? Their women don’t dress how you think they should? Well that’s Well that ain’t no fucking casus belli, that’s called motherfucking imperialism and it already failed.
I don’t even agree with Tamerlane that the US made a mistake disengaging from Afghanistan in 1990/1. Actions happen within their motherfucking context. There is no way that I see that anyone could have ensured a good outcome to Afghanistan circa 1990. (a) American involvement in Afghanistan doesn’t happen in a goddamn motherfucking vacuum. It happens in the context of the Soviet Union falling apart. Does agitating the Soviets circa 1990-1991 payoff in terms of 1990-1991? Do we have either the home political or abroad political cover for it? Nothing happens in a vacuum. Maybe our ignorant fucking isolationists will learn a lesson. (b) It ignores that we worked almost 100% through the Pakis. They, with close connections couldn’t keep things together. Why the fuck does anyone think that the magical involvement of the USA solves fucking problems? Good fucking lord. I know fucking personally I would say most the fucking US folks who know the fucking situation. I don’t know one motherfucker who could have made the right call. Face it. One can’t predict things. The world is one fucked up place. © al-Qaeda. Here is a genuine fuck up. We should have and perhaps could have taken better measures. However better measures requires real intelligence. The cock-up with Clinton reflected not some motherfucking stupid fucking dumbshit wag-the-dog incident (a dumb fucking movie if you ask me) but bad motherfucking intelligence. I know some of our folks on the ground there (there’s only so many embassy “commercial officers” or whatever whose knowledge of business (or subject X) and econ is slim but can talk about security like there’s no fucking tomorrow one can meet before one starts to get a sense of things) and I say straight up our assets are slim. I don’t want to bust on good people working with little support or attention from their home base. But I am convinced we need to invest massively (and well) in people who know the languages and terrain. And the fucking culture. Was that possible circa 1999?
No it absolutely was not.
Look at me. Who was better to me, who thought, man this dude’s language skills are actually useful? The Europeans Americans? Nobody was offering me, several years back, the $$. It is no accident I have Euro employment experience cause frankly the US has been fucking fooling itself.