I was speaking with some friends at university today about alternate histories and timelines. The discussion moved onto the world wars and the inevitable “what if” of Germany winning the second world war.
What was of interest in the discussion was the theory that if Israel had not been founded in 1948 then the Middle East as a whole would have become over time a centralised political and economic power similar to a new Persia that juxtaposed the two remaining superpowers of North America and a greater Germany spanning most of Europe.
Personally, I have a hard time seeing that. If anything, the foundation of Israel was a unifying factor in other Middle Eastern countries, so if Israel hadn’t existed they would have been more likely to remain distinct nations.
One of the factors that might have led to Germany winning WWII was control of the Middle East and the oil there. I can’t imagine them giving up access to the Middle East after they won the war. IMHO, I can’t see a Persian state asserting any sort of independence from a victorious Germany.
I think the Germans were primarily interested in the already developed oil reserves of the Caucasian region more than they were interested in the oil of the Middle East. The strategic considerations for that area seem to have been more centralized on denying the Allies the use of the Suez canal.
However, I did find that somewhere around p. 655 of Mein Kampf, Hitler does say, “the Persian Empire is ripe for collapse.” I can’t tell if this is some sort of Alexandrian metaphor regarding the fall of the Soviet Union, or if he really meant it.