Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

That just shows a misunderstanding on the part of the people. Science takes a reputation hit because the scientists and science organization are hampered by the political hacks put in charge of them. The changing, misleading guidance from the CDC - directly the result of Trumpers.

The lack of PPE falls on the Republican led Congress, who didn’t backfill the supplies after H1N1. No funding, stockpile languishes without attention.

As for a lack of a plan, that falls directly at the feet of President Trump, who threw out the plan left by the Obama administration.

Yes, there were failures by the CDC, but mostly due to incompetence in the political leadership, not the scientists.

I will grant you the early “you don’t need to wear masks” from the early days, when they were considering only N95 masks being effective, and needing those for health care workers. But they quickly did shift course when the science supported non-N95 mask use to limit spread.

Yep, which is what science does.

I’m with you completely on this one. Confusing the statements of the employees and scientists of the CDC with the word vomit that comes out of Atlas’ or Azar’s piehole is not the fault of the scientists.

Exactly. To add to that, scientists didn’t know how contagious people were before they started showing symptoms. They also didn’t know that some people were asymptomatic all together. Those data started coming in mid to late March. By the first of April, the Fauci and the CDC were telling everyone to wear masks for that reason. That was pretty early on in the epidemic and during a time when most states were in some sort of lockdown. If people wore masks and bars/restaurants remained closed during reopening, we would not have smaller surges in the summer.

No, it’s not. It’s really the responsibilty of the individual, or maybe the media to call out the Trump administration on putting a zero like Atlas in charge of anything, and in not reining in Azar when he spews nonsense.

And that’s been a problem all along; they’ve been more than willing to give air time and column inches to whatever mephitic misinformation is coming out of the nether regions of the Executive Branch, and not call it out for the bullshit that it is. Even if they give Drs. Fauci and Hotez equal time, they don’t have quite the same weight as a Cabinet member.

Case in point- Azar said this past week that by spring there will be enough vaccines for “all Americans”. Is that true? Is that even likely to be true? If not, the news media needs to call that out as bullshit forcefully, not let it stand on its own merits. He also said that science and data “do not support” lockdowns. Is that true? Biden’s guys seem to think it does, and so do people in other countries. The news media needs to be calling that out if there’s even a whiff of bullshit.

bump, I’ve noticed a marked shift in tone at CNN. Or maybe I’m just paying better attention. But the hosts at CNN have become much harsher towards Trump’s and his crony’s lies. They do seem to be calling the shit out more. Outright declaring statements lies.

I just wish the media would have stopped giving him air time months ago, when it was clear he had little connection to reality and was blathering nonsense to stir up his base. They didn’t need to cut into the evening national newscast for a special broadcast about the President going to the hospital to be treated for covid. Sure, tell us that’s happening, but I didn’t need to see a helicopter take off and fly for five minutes. They didn’t need to cater to his megalomania and interrupt the newscast for his 5:30 pm (central time) press conferences. Sure, send the reporters and record them for later, but stop feeding the beast.

ABC news also seems to be critiquing comments like that with strong statements about there not being any evidence of such and such, or Dr. Fauci saying something completely different, or other sources that refute the comments of the pie-holes.

It’s just a shame we find ourselves in such a predicament that the statements from the Executive Branch are worthless, and our trusted national agencies are undercut and hamstrung by said political hacks. But what is worse is that half the country doesn’t see all this as a problem. The still want Trump in charge. They still buy his bullshit about massive voter fraud, and are holding rallies and such in support. Sending him donations to pay his legal bills campaign debts.

Most news outlets seem to have got fed up about a month or so before the election. But they have years of treating outright lies as if they are actual news and worthy of consideration. That’s not right, and they should have been calling it out from the moment Trump announced his candidacy.

Part of me says that they didn’t want to do any of that until they could make sure he’d be safely out of office. OTOH, how much worse could he treat them. Since getting the name ‘lame stream media’ to catch on and convincing his base to treat them with about as much respect as Fox deserves, it might not have mattered if they pissed him off months or years earlier.

The only thing, I can think is that he could attempt to find ways, maybe via the FCC, to get them off the air. But I’d hope that even his own side would see that unlike blocking someone on twitter, this would be an actual form of censorship and understand that that’s a dangerous road to go down.

My position was and is a challenge to your statement that politicians promoted public gatherings because “reactionaries” were blaming Chinese Americans. This was done when there was a known crisis in China. I’m asking you to give examples of “reactionaries” harming Chinese Americans and how that weighs against public gatherings in light of a pandemic in China.

I just wanted to say that @bump started this thread 6 weeks ago because we were opening bars despite the fact that Dallas County was creeping back up to several hundred cases a day, and that seemed crazy.

Well, apparently it was, because now, 6 weeks later, we are hitting over 1000 a day again, and today we had over 1800. It’s been 5000 in three days. So yes, reopening bars was crazy. And the exponential growth curve that started is getting really steep really fast.

In fact, this is what I said 5 weeks ago: I said it takes 5 weeks to really spike, and here we are. People think it’s two weeks, but it’s not. The first couple ripples stay under the radar. Late May spiked mid July. We pulled it back, loosened up in early October, and here we are again, just in time for the holidays.

Exponential growth curves will do that.

Wait, you seriously are unaware of the reaction against Chinese Americans in America due to coronavirus in China?

How about

That’s just through M, and I didn’t list everything at the wikipedia page.

Second, you started with the statement,

Flights were first shut down on Jan. 31 (actually, Feb. 2). On Feb. 13, Mayor de Blasio was encouraging supporting Asian American businesses because there were no known cases in New York yet, but business was down by 40 percent in Asian businesses, but not other businesses.

from

So, as stated by Pelosi and de Blasio, their motives were to support Asian Americans because they were being punished for China having a pandemic.

Whether they were justified with their encouragement of public activities, or misguided because the plague was on its way and we just weren’t aware it was spawning here, is maybe a valid question in some detail. But you seem overly concerned about their behavior then, before U.S. cases, while you are downplaying - no, rejecting taking actions now when the virus is ramping up to sky-high levels.

And I’m stymied why you brought up “politicians on both coasts” back when flights from China were first shut down as a response to Banquet_Bear talking about a potential nationwide lockdown now.

Thanks for doing that. I started out trying to craft an answer, but you have way more patience and came up with a much more complete answer than I would have.

That was my point when I started the thread. If we were expecting a dire winter, and a second surge of cases and deaths around Thanksgiving and Christmas, why in the world were we loosening restrictions in early October?

It seemed insane at the time, and doubly so now, with the unchecked and dramatic increase in cases we’re starting to see right now. In fact, we’re already higher than we were in the spike in July, and no politicians have made anything close to a move to restrict anything. I’m baffled, angered and saddened by that.

You’re comparing a handful of hysterics to the thousands of covid deaths in NYC? Seriously?

Yes, who could have predicted that Chinese people traveling to and from cities with large ethnic connections to China might spread a virus known to be out of control in China.

A rational person might look at the need to shut down flights to prevent the virus from spreading as an indication of what not to do.

I want to be really clear I understand what you are saying. (Or, perhaps more to the point, that you do.) Given potentially confounding factors, what percentage of the growth do you attribute to the opening of bars? Just ballpark. Even big chunks will do, like 25 or 50 or 75 or 100.

Here are some articles that include studies about the increased rates of infections from people having gone to bars, restaurants and hotels.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-study-says-restaurants-and-bars-are-high-risk-places-to-catch-covid-19/ar-BB1aVBQ0

What I dont get is why the early closing times? Does the disease suddenly get worse at 10 pm?

I would think that a bar or restaurant to serve the same number of patrons and still be profitable, given restrictions of fewer people inside, they would allow longer hours?

Here’s an article in Wired that touches on that question:

New Yorkers are still puzzling over a new, state-wide rule that bars, restaurants, and gyms must close at 10 pm to stop the spread of Covid. Was this based on some brand-new evidence that the virus mutates like a gremlin, getting worse at night? You wouldn’t know it from Governor Andrew Cuomo’s announcement, which did not cite any research whatsoever that might justify this policy. The announcement did claim, however, that New York uses “more science than any state in the nation.”

I’ve seen this happen again and again since the start of the pandemic: a new, “science-based” Covid-19 measure is prescribed, but the science in support of it is either vague or missing altogether. Just last week, for example, I was working on a story about the latest research into quarantine procedures. The best data to this point suggests that an eight-day stretch of quarantine, combined with a Covid test, provides the same level of protection as the traditional 14-day quarantine. But then I saw New York state’s new policy: Some people who arrived from out of state are allowed to quarantine for just four days. I asked New York’s Department of Health how they’d come to this decision, and they sent me another statement from Cuomo, in which he said only that he’d “worked with global health experts” on the plan. A formal guidance from the state health department gave no research citations, either, but it did find space to boast about New York’s record of “strict adherence to data-driven, evidence-based protocols.”

Lots of science-y stuff in there about the public policy that is masquerading as science-y ‘science’. Or, science-y ‘the science’.

I am not attributing it to bars in particular. Note the title of the thread is “bars, etc.” I am attributing it to a general relaxation of precautions about 5-6 weeks ago, which including reopening bars but also increasing the indoor capacities of restaurants to 75%, starting high school sports up again, etc.

Is your position that this spike would have occurred independent of mitigation measures?