The experts in the US it seems, would like the quarantine to stay in place, and make it even tighter, probably until late summer or fall and possibly for a full year. I cant quote anyone but its out there. Which makes sense, they want this to go thru a couple of cycles and get to the point where there is enough testing to ensure who does and doesnt have it or maybe even wait for a vaccine.
What I see is the longer people are out, the looser they get with restrictions. For example I’m seeing neighbors getting together in driveways. At first they practice social distance. Then the chairs start slowly moving closer together along with the conversations. Kids are having play dates as long as they are outside. neighbors teens get together to walk, ride bikes, or play basketball.
All of these are prohibited by ordinance and law and technically the cops could be out writing tickets.
PS - check out this story where a town tried sounding a siren announcing the start of quarantine. It didnt end well.
So in general how long will people keep this up?
And with that, how strict of laws will people endure? Will people accept it if the cops start driving around breaking up groups and handing out tickets or even arresting people?
People need to be educated on social distancing, people who are especially vulnerable need to shelter in place and establish a support system. Other than that I hope they do rebel and go back to normal. Herd immunity is needed the sooner the better.
I would hope the authorities would realize it before it happened and ease up. Here in Ohio there’s less than 200 dead, out of how many , a million? It really is overkill.
Yes, you did. By stating that it’s overkill because there’s only 200 dead, you implied that there should be less restrictions. Either you want more dead or you don’t understand that there’s only 200 dead because of what we’re doing.
If your city went back to normal today, in a few weeks you might have 10,000 instead of 200.
You have to remember, the number’s are staying low because of what we’re doing, not in spite of it. This is causation, not correlation.
To go back to the Y2K example that keeps getting kicked around. A lot of people feel that we over reacted to Y2K because nothing ever really became of it. However, they don’t realize that nothing ever became of it because a lot of programmers spent a lot of time creating, testing and rolling out patches. If they didn’t nothing, no, airplanes wouldn’t drop out of the sky, but you might not have had access to your checking account and all your credit cards may have stopped working.
People don’t get exponential increase. Even with all the discussion, if the numbers are low, people just don’t make the connection between 10 today, 1000 in two weeks time. This is a big problem. Until the deaths get personal, some people refuse to believe there is an issue at all. By then you are so far into the catastrophe that it is basically all over, there is nothing to do but let it roll over you and then count the dead. That is a worst case. Not everyone is quite this stupid. People are also liable to get scared. Their entire perception may swap about on news from nearby disasters. But disasters in other countries are never personal.
How well a lockdown is coped with probably also depends upon the relationship between authority figures and the populace. If your police force has a poor relationship with the populace, and is wont to go around belligerently and arrogantly enforcing laws as they see them, it isn’t going to work well. One needs to be able feel everyone is in this together. Any city where people don’t feel they can approach a policeman in the street and ask for any sort of help is going to be in trouble.
First it was shelter for a couple weeks and social distancing. Just a little bit of a longer Spring Break for students, fine. Then 30 days and stay at home unless you have an essential job. Now all we hear is another month or two or maybe in the Fall.
Spring is here, Summer on the way, school is out for the rest of the year and there is no way that most people are going to just skip Summer and stay at home, none. People are willing to work together for the common good, if they can see it, but it is becoming the Boogie Man who might get you if you aren’t good. The administration, Dr Fauci, is now saying things may improve this fall, maybe.
My county is over 1000 square miles. There have been 5 confirmed positive tests for the Covid-19. Three of these have recovered and are no longer quarantined. The other two are self quarantined at home. No one is in the hospital. No one. But it has effectively been shut down waiting on the zombie hoards, or something.
Businesses are shut down, people are out of work, and nobody, is sick. And the scant few police are only able to advise you to go home, or tell you that the beach is closed.
The experts have been pretty consistent. Restrictions can be relaxed with relative safety once we get testing up and get the supply chains for medical providers up. It’s not binary: willy-nilly freedom or totally locked down.
“Too long” is a subjective thing but in any event the faster we get a big, coordinated response from medical professionals and all levels of government, the sooner it will be. Considering how late we were to the game, it will take a bit longer, but things are headed in the right direction at least. Hopefully we can accelerate testing and production of PPE and other medical supplies.
If left everything as it was a few months ago, maybe you’d have 5000 cases instead of 5. Keep in mind that if you only have 5 cases, you’re doing something right and you’re more likely to have this over with sooner.
Yes of course, but that is not the way the average person thinks. They do not see the positive results as being due to the precautions, they will tend to see the precautions as unneeded if they do not see the threat.
Not sure the experts are the right people to listen to on the issue of when the lockdown will end. Since everything I have read about epidemiologists and virologists on this issue is that a generalized global shutdown was the thing they most feared and wanted to avoid at all costs. Turns out they aren’t stupid and were all too aware of the deleterious effects it would have on the global economy.
Such a shutdown becoming necessary and turning into fact means they are just in the dark as we are as to when it can happen. When this question is asked from his expression this is the one thing Antony Fauci seems to genuinely have no idea about. After all, this is precisely what he always worked to avoid. Knew how to avoid too.
What would that look like more specifically? Say Dallas Jones and everyone else in his county are all good little boys and girls and 100% follow the stay in place order. Then restrictions are eased. Won’t infected people start coming into his county, infecting him and his fellow citizens, causing a spike in his county and starting the whole thing all over again?
Similar in Kansas. Kansas has 2.9 million people. So far there have been 900 cases and 27 deaths statewide. Many counties have had zero cases so far and in but about 8 counties (out of 105) have had less than 10. Moist of the cases are in just 3 counties. If you look at the map onthis linkbasically all of western Kansas is virus free.
I think the governor could start relaxing rules for areas showing no virus activity.
The experts have been warning, for years if we look into it, that to avoid these kinds of shutdowns, we need to have equipment and supplies ready, be ready to selectively lock down, and start screening people thoroughly as soon as we know one of these diseases is out there.
We didn’t do any of that this time. Or at least when we finally did, it was months too late.
So in light of that, the experts said the cat’s out of the bag, so here’s the next best thing. And we’re pushing back against that, too.
At some point, we have to admit to ourselves that our collective failure to listen to expertise is not the fault of the experts.
South Korea has had more success and other nations have had success by being aggressive and following expert guidelines better than we have. If we’re an outlier, it’s not due to exceptionalism. It’s because we tend to buck authority whenever we get a chance, whether warranted or not.