I wonder how long people do typically spend on a bus or subway, versus in a restaurant. Makes me wonder what kinds of commutes the people who wrote that are used to. I guess I also wonder what kinds of restaurants feature lots of singing and shouting. They should have said laughing. People get together and laugh with each other at restaurants. Or at least they used to!
I don’t know what to tell you, man. I can only point you to the data.
You’re using the data about hospital capacity to make an inference that doesn’t have any meaning. Your inference is that there’s nothing different about Covid-19 because the hospital was at the same rate of usage last year and this year. I don’t believe that’s true. But even if is, it’s because hospitals can’t go past capacity. Your inference is obfuscating and misleading.
Well, ok. Not sure what that really means but I won’t argue that stuff in the air is spread around.
I’d like to hear more about what you mean by ‘hospitals can’t go past capacity’. We seem to have established that LA County was using a couple thousand more staffed beds in the summer than they were a week or so ago, which I think establishes clearly enough that the physical infrastructure, at least, appears to be in place. If they don’t have the same amount of staff at the moment – perhaps in part because schools are closed, though let’s leave that aside – then I don’t see that as the same thing as not having the space or the equipment.
When it comes to ICU beds, I’m told that hospitals have the ability to ‘flex’ and create more as needed, that they do it somewhat regularly, and they may even be required to by regulating bodies. I am not well versed on the healthcare industry, so I’d like to hear more about what you mean.
What I believe, and am not trying to obfuscate, is that anecdotal stories are being used by the media to instill fear. Bodies piling up in the corridors, makeshift trucks for morgues, mass graves. I’m not sure we’re supposed to believe every single thing we hear.
EDIT: Here’s an article that addresses surge capacity:
That is saying a lot to tell really nothing against the studies and the realization that your last point was indeed just FUD.
Again, people in trains and buses do usually keep to themselves and use masks, in restaurants people are involved in conversation and they also do shout and sing at times. While also removing masks to eat. More locally, I can report that I did insist while on a rare going out with my wife and brother to have the food in the outdoor section a week ago, (pole heathers outside) but sadly, I noticed that people sitting in the indoor area with about 2/3s of them with no masks and chatting…
Not bothered to go to the restroom through that minefield.
You also just talk louder, because it’s loud. You project. I feel like if you must have restaurants and bars open, two things would help–no music, and a time limit per table (like, 45 min or an hour).
Has this Wapo video of mouth/nose droplets been shared yet? It should be free for everyone since it’s about Covid-19.
That is a very good video for giving us some kind of visual representation of aerosol spread.
Thought I would check your take on the latest update for the HHS Protect Public Data Hub for hospital capacity. Here’s a look at their ‘Estimated Hospital Utilization’ for a few selected states for the past month or so. I included the big ones you hear a lot about, plus the Dakotas since I heard they are in disaster mode too, and Maine as something of a point of reference since I heard they aren’t having too much virus trouble. These are estimates for percent of beds being used.
| Date | CA | FL | IL | ME | ND | NJ | NY | SD | TX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/28/2020 | 70 | 71 | 64 | 63 | 76 | 70 | 66 | 60 | 71 |
| 11/29/2020 | 70 | 72 | 65 | 63 | 76 | 71 | 67 | 60 | 71 |
| 11/30/2020 | 71 | 74 | 66 | 64 | 75 | 74 | 70 | 61 | 72 |
| 12/1/2020 | 74 | 79 | 69 | 68 | 76 | 78 | 74 | 66 | 75 |
| 12/2/2020 | 76 | 80 | 70 | 69 | 78 | 79 | 75 | 66 | 76 |
| 12/3/2020 | 76 | 80 | 70 | 70 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 63 | 76 |
| 12/4/2020 | 77 | 79 | 70 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 75 | 62 | 76 |
| 12/5/2020 | 75 | 78 | 68 | 67 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 60 | 74 |
| 12/6/2020 | 75 | 76 | 67 | 65 | 73 | 75 | 71 | 59 | 73 |
| 12/7/2020 | 75 | 77 | 67 | 66 | 72 | 76 | 73 | 61 | 73 |
| 12/8/2020 | 77 | 80 | 70 | 69 | 73 | 79 | 75 | 65 | 76 |
| 12/9/2020 | 78 | 80 | 71 | 69 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 65 | 78 |
| 12/10/2020 | 78 | 80 | 70 | 70 | 76 | 78 | 75 | 65 | 78 |
| 12/11/2020 | 77 | 80 | 70 | 69 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 61 | 78 |
| 12/12/2020 | 77 | 78 | 68 | 66 | 73 | 74 | 72 | 59 | 77 |
| 12/13/2020 | 76 | 76 | 68 | 65 | 68 | 73 | 70 | 57 | 75 |
| 12/14/2020 | 77 | 78 | 68 | 66 | 68 | 74 | 69 | 59 | 75 |
| 12/15/2020 | 79 | 81 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 61 | 76 |
| 12/16/2020 | 78 | 82 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 76 | 70 | 64 | 77 |
| 12/17/2020 | 79 | 82 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 75 | 69 | 62 | 77 |
| 12/18/2020 | 79 | 82 | 71 | 70 | 72 | 75 | 69 | 61 | 77 |
| 12/19/2020 | 78 | 78 | 69 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 66 | 55 | 75 |
| 12/20/2020 | 78 | 76 | 66 | 65 | 67 | 71 | 66 | 55 | 74 |
| 12/21/2020 | 78 | 77 | 66 | 65 | 66 | 73 | 67 | 56 | 74 |
| 12/22/2020 | 79 | 79 | 69 | 66 | 68 | 76 | 69 | 59 | 75 |
| 12/23/2020 | 79 | 78 | 69 | 67 | 68 | 75 | 68 | 58 | 75 |
| 12/24/2020 | 78 | 76 | 65 | 64 | 67 | 72 | 66 | 56 | 72 |
| 12/25/2020 | 76 | 69 | 59 | 59 | 61 | 66 | 61 | 52 | 68 |
| 12/26/2020 | 76 | 69 | 59 | 61 | 61 | 66 | 61 | 51 | 67 |
| 12/27/2020 | 77 | 72 | 61 | 64 | 65 | 69 | 64 | 53 | 69 |
| 12/28/2020 | 78 | 75 | 64 | 65 | 67 | 71 | 67 | 55 | 69 |
These numbers don’t appear to fit the narrative. What I take from that is either the numbers or wrong (and by that I mean that they don’t match the reality, not that they are fraudulent) or that the narrative is wrong (and by that I mean that it doesn’t match the reality, not that it doesn’t match some anecdotal cases).
From the same page, national estimates:
- Inpatient Beds Occupied (All Patients): 473,542 (66.45%)
- Inpatient Beds Occupied (COVID-19 Patients): 123,173 (17.29%)
- ICU Beds Occupied (All Patients): 65,089 (61.15 %)
I know you think I’m a conspiracy theorist. I want to know what a unbiased person is supposed to observe from this data. Or I guess I should say from this government website, as I guess one of the observations could be that the government is rigging the data. (Certainly wouldn’t be the first time I’ve heard that on this board.) Though, on reflection, that itself sounds a bit CT. It does get confusing to keep track of which side the truth is on.
The quote of mine that you’re quoting is about the overcapacity of LA County hospitals, which is the graph you were providing and that I was discussing in that quote.
You’re now showing the hospital capacity rates for all of California. They don’t match because California is a huge state and what is happening in LA County may not be happening to the same degree in every hospital in the state. Some of the larger urban centers are getting hit hard right now in California. Some of the other area hospitals might have a bit more leeway. It could also still be true that California as a whole is getting hard hit. You can see that in the state comparison. It doesn’t mean that every single hospital in California and every area in California is getting affected in the same way.
I disagree. I think the numbers fit the narrative quite well, or at least the narrative I’m been reading. I’m not sure what narrative you’ve been reading. If you look at the colors on the map, CA is purple with more than 25% of hospital capacity of covid patients. Since the numbers are lower in some other areas of the country, the total numbers even out.
I don’t know which numbers you’re questioning, but on first glance, they look like they represent most of what I’ve been reading.
Wait, what? Where are you hearing either of these things? The 7-day average of cases peaked in North and South Dakota on November 18, and has been falling ever since (dramatically so in ND, where it is currently about 1/6 of what it is then), and while Maine has fairly low incidence overall, it has been rising sharply for much of the last month, particularly from around 12/3 to 12/18 or so. The numbers you’ve posted look consistent with both of these trends.
I haven’t watched that yet, but The Slow Mo Guys (well, one of them) shot some high speed footage of himself sneezing and coughing to show how much comes out. At one point, he noticed that there was a lot of saliva coming out of his mouth even while he was just talking.
I pulled some data from the CDC page. Just picked some dates and numbers. I tried to pull dates to show the different levels of change and pick comparative numbers.
CASES
Date Count Num Increase
Mar 27 103,563
Apr 1 213,035 109,472
6 days
Jun 12 2,037,585
Jun 17 2,155,303 117,718
5 days
Dec 20 17,790,376
Dec 21 17,794,303 183,927
1 Day!
DEATHS
Apr 6 12,064
Apr 14 24,582 12,518
8 days
Sep 9 190,262
Sep 24 202,352 12,090
15 days
Dec 18 312,636
Dec 23 325,096 12,460
5 daysOn Mar 27, the Case count took 6 days to increase from ~100,000 to ~200,000. Just under 110,000 case increase. (109,472)
Jun 12 took 5 days to increase a bit over 110,000 cases (117,718).
Dec 20 it jumped well over 100,000 cases IN 1 DAY. (183,927).
That’s not a significant difference to you?
How about deaths?
Apr 6 went from 12,000 deaths to 24,000 deaths in 8 days. (12,518 deaths)
Sep 9 went from 190,000 to 202,000 in 15 days. (12,090).
Dec 18 jumped 312,000 to 325,000 deaths in 5 days. (12,468)
A different comparison…
From Apr 1 to May 4, deaths increased from 4,506 to 68,362, an increase of 63,856. That’s 34 days.
From Oct 1, it took 62 days to increase 62,461 cases (207,302 to 269,763).
From Dec 1 to Dec 28, there were 64,266 deaths - in 28 days. That’s above the rate of the first wave of the pandemic.
(I’m having trouble getting time to keep pace with the thread.)
What you noticed here does sound a lot like climate change contrarians that, if not cherry-picking, they also like to do the reverse when convenient, like when they declare that "there was a drop in global temperatures, therefore, climate change is not happening.” Forgetting that looking at a few years or looking for general data to dismiss the increase in damage from specific weather events, is not how climate scientists look at the problem of global warming.
Here the specific point made by posters like you concerns what is happening in specific cities, not the big state. As noted, contrarians (many times unwillingly) can also cite proper science but in a way that incites fear, uncertainty and doubt that percolates from dubious sources of information.
The fossil fuel industry found ways to use the FUD tactics used by the tobacco industry and others in the past, it is not good when some forget that other industries know already about how effective contrarian tactics were/are.
Kaiser in the Bay Area (where things are much better than in LA) is canceling or postponing all elective procedures. That will reduce hospital usage, and will the reluctance of people to go to the hospital due to fears of getting infected. I assume even more elective procedures have been delayed in LA.
I only see ICU usage in reports on California county by county, and that seems like the right metric. I’d bet that counties with 0 ICU beds left have plenty of regular beds.
For what it’s worth, here’s San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond saying that you may have seen headlines that don’t accurately reflect what’s going on in his county:
Not worth much as he is a politician and not a doctor working in the hospitals.
But how do those percentages, ranging from zero to nearly 30, add up to a statewide ICU capacity of 0%?
To add to the confusion, the California Department of Public Health also reports that as of Sunday there were 1,385 available ICU beds in the state.
We’ve been asking the CDPH to clarify how these seemingly contradictory figures add up, and late last week they provided an email with an answer: The ICU capacity measure “is standardized to reflect effective capacity in ICUs by looking at the percentage of COVID-19 positive patients in the ICU,” the department wrote.
Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s Health and Human Services secretary, addressed the adjustment during Tuesday’s COVID update. “When we have seen hospitals with ICU capacity used up for COVID above 30% we consider… that region’s ICU capacity really ill-prepared to serve and support individuals with other sorts of urgent and emergent needs, like heart attacks, strokes, other trauma.”
CDPH has still not responded to a request for the actual and adjusted ICU capacity measures for each of the state’s five regions. But figures reported by Orange County’s public health department provided a hint of how it works. As of Monday, the county reported that the hard-hit Southern California region’s ICU bed availability was 0.0%, adjusted, and 11.1% unadjusted . That suggests Southern California’s ICU’s have more than 50% COVID patients, according to the state’s formula for adjusting capacity.
CDPH said it adjusts the capacity measure “to preserve the capacity of the ICU to also treat non-COVID-19 conditions.”
Adjusted or unadjusted, health experts say ICU capacity is a highly fluid number that also factors in the availability of ICU nurses, necessary equipment, and suitable space — not simply beds.
Yep, I have seen this before, people that come from a business setting that gain power do try to spin data in a way that ignores important details that in reality they don’t understand. It usually happens when their bottom line will be affected. The sad thing is that they are wrong also regarding how the bottom line is affected:
Spin data? They are using some kind of formula that counts virus patients as more than one patient, and you think it’s someone else who is spinning data? After their formula counts unused beds as used and the press runs with stories that they say they are out of beds?
I think all anyone wants to know is whether what they say, when ‘they’ say that the place is out of beds, means people will now get turned away. Not some output of their formula.
It is clear that you do want to ignore that nurses and doctors are a finite quantity. Yeah this is very similar to climate contrarians that wanted to say the same to paleo climate scientists that they were spinning people by hiding temperature increases, a wrong accusation when what what happened was that non experts misinterpreted the reason why.
Read it again, it is clear that just like contrarians of climate science deny that temperatures increased regardless of the divergence problem, contrarians now deny that hospitals do things by not ignoring that people still will get to the ICU for other reasons and clearly prepare for eventualities that are very likely to come. That non hospital business men with some power in government broadcast unfair opinions does not mean that they are correct about how hospitals do things.
I rather listen to the experts on the field rather than an elected dunderhead that was put there by laymen. People that ignore safety valves could make something work for awhile but eventually the few that advice that usually will get the system to blow up in their faces.