I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins Ohio AND Illinois, I mean I’ve already crunched the numbers on him winning 4/5 states and that’s still bad enough that it likely dooms his candidacy (actually I think it’s already doomed, but it just gets worse in the 4/5 scenario.)
Part of the issue with Sanders campaign in general is he’s done well by targeting specific states heavily, but as he does so he writes entire states off. This is confusing to me because it’s a strategy that simply doesn’t work in an all-proportional primary. It suggests his campaign managers don’t really understand how bad it is to get behind on delegates, or his real goal here isn’t to win in pledged delegates–in fact he suspects he can’t. He either wants to win enough “important states” and enough votes that he can make the argument to superdelegates “switch to me to swing it from Hillary, even though she clinched the pledged delegates” or he just has entered full “protest/message candidate” mode and feels the most effective way to fulfill that role is by targeting key states to win that will get more media attention.
Clinton is and has been running a 50+ state campaign, and Sanders hasn’t. That’s like trying to win an auto race while running on a track 50% longer than your opponent’s.