Amateur Campaign Consultants:What does Sanders need next Tuesday

So does Sanders need to get out more of the young white vote or change some old or black Dems minds? He’s polling way behind in Florida, but no worse than he was in Michigan. Is it remotely possible he can get his vote out there and cause a similar upset? As far as the standard thought on the demographic split goes, it doesn’t seem super ugly for him in the next Tuesday states though he is mostly polling behind.

I have not much faith he can win the nom, but what can he get done next Tuesday that will keep the dream alive?

An endorsement from Obama, the pope, Oprah, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and the cast and crew of Walking Dead might do it if Hillary gets indicted before next Tuesday.

he needs to leave the race and realize the role of token opposition is getting old, and communism is lame.

I said amateur campaign consultants not amateur comedians. I’m sure you geniuses would have said the same thing two days ago if I asked “how can Sanders win Michigan?”.

He needs a gracious concession speech.

Sanders needs some blowout wins. Even if he won all of the Tuesday primaries by 5%, the delegates would only shift over a minor amount. He has to make up a 200+ Clinton delegate lead. Now that press may cause some blowouts later in the cycle, but victories like Clinton received in the South is necessary for Sanders to prevail.

Though there is the problem that Florida is much more like Georgia, South Carolina, etc. than it is like Michigan… even with the more northerner influenced Southern part of the state.

The super-black Southern states are mostly done. Wouldn’t be so cocky.

I don’t know ISiddiqui. Parts of Florida are Georgia-like but there is still a significantly lower African American percentage. On the other hand, it has a higher retiree population. Then on the gripping hand, a lot of those are northern transplants.

Clinton won white Democratic Georgians, who are more moderate, by a high number as well. Also, North Carolina’s percentage of African-Americans in not that far from Alabama, and more than Virginia. Both states have a higher percentage of African-Americans than Texas.

I think it’s hard to say, he needs to do well 3/15 to avoid being “mathematically squeezed” into impossibility. I think North Carolina/Ohio should receive the lion’s share of his attention, but he needs to get better at realizing every campaign counts. Doubly so for his legion of young reddit supporters who focused insanely on Michigan.

Not saying it was dumb to care about Michigan, but if he had done 10% better in Mississippi that would’ve been almost as important delegate wise.

So while I think NC/Ohio should be where he puts all his effort, make sure he’s at least contesting in Florida and Illinois.

In terms of allocating limited resources I’d hit NC/Ohio hard, equally (relative to their size) and then Illinois prioritized a little less. Florida still work to get awareness and do more than he did in places like Mississippi–really in a long proportional delegate race there should be no state you just “concede.” These aren’t FPTP WTA contests, conceding a state makes no sense, ever. But Florida should attract less money/time than the other three because it’s likely his efforts will be the least rewarded there since Florida has a closed primary and you have to switch something like 23 days ago (29 before the primary), and given Bernie’s large number of young and independent voters the likelihood enough of them have bothered to pre-update their registration means this is a state where late gains are probably going to be less likely/muted.

@Martin Hyde:
Yeah I just noticed earlier that today that Florida is a state that requires a 30 day advance registration as a Dem. So that’s a little tough since I am under the impression he gets a lot of support from independents.

He does have a solid war chest so he shouldn’t necessarily think about “limited resources” too much. It’s build or die at this point, istm. I am curious what issues he could play up to help him, outside of pure cash media blitz. Is there some line of attack he could use besides "Wall street owns Washington! "?

Well he has to manage his resources to a degree, the proportional race means for example he can’t “blow his wad” on 4 races, he doesn’t have unlimited funds–no candidate does.

But even moreso there are tight campaign schedules with only so many slots in a day for doing various activities with the candidate, you have to decide which to prioritize and to which degree.

I’m far from a Sanders supporter but I’d focus on Illinois. His anti establishment message might sell here with the frustration over the state budget. Try to energize the black lives matter/Chuy Garcia/Chicago Teachers Union activists.

Same day registration is allowed in Illinois.

Working against Sanders is that early voting has already been going on for a while.

Yep, he might have “won” Michigan, but he can’t win a small margins in a proportional distribution of delegates and catch up. And in the states he does lose, he has got to keep the margin small. On Tuesday he got eight more delegates than Clinton in Michigan, she got 28 more delegates than he did in Mississippi. She went from being 199 delegates ahead to being 219 - that isn’t a winning day - that’s a beating expectations but still losing day.

Clinton is from Illinois. People who like Obama more tend to vote Clinton over Sanders. Obama is from Illinois.

Bernie needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates to get a majority of the pledged delegates. Roughly this means he needs to win the remaining contests by a population weighted average of 8 points. So even if he pulls of Michigan sized wins in all five states on 3/15 he’ll fall behind where he needs to be.

To pull this off he’ll need a major issue that resonates across the entire Democratic party. I would be very surprised if he has such an issue in his back pocket and has been waiting to roll it out until now.

Also, North Carolina is bordered by four states (GA, SC, TN, VA) and all four states have voted already. The average margin is Clinton +38.4. The closest was VA at Clinton +29.1. I don’t think can get to +8 in NC like he needs to.

His best bets are Ohio and Missouri.

I don’t know if many will agree but I also think he has a shot at Illinois as well. At the least he could close the gap enough to make it closer than anyone expects.

And, I fully understand a close loss in IL wouldn’t do anything in his march to lock up the nomination but it would continue helping him build momentum before the west coast and remaining northeastern primaries. I still expect Hillary to get the nomination but I’ve thought all along the easy dismissal of Bernie by so many Hillary supporters isn’t very smart.

Already addressed.

Yes but North Carolina also is a place where he’s not polling that badly, and has a lot of young educated whites. I had forgotten Missouri was even voting on 3/15, but it does award the fewest delegates of the five.

I will say there is actually a strong argument to weight his resources strictly based on which states can help him win the most delegates. Winning Missouri by 2% and being able to clam a win is probably less important than keeping Florida close to minimize Clinton’s margin gain.

:rolleyes: No doubt, but that has fuck-all to do with social democracy or with democratic socialism or with Sanders.