Not when he should, just a prediction of when he will, which includes “never”. No purpose other that the fun of guessing outcomes.
Poll includes major primary dates or “never - he’s going to be the nominee.” If you think it will be between dates listed then please choose the date closest to the date you think it will be and explain in your post.
he’ll go until March 15; getting out Super Tuesday would make him look like less of a “movement” than an also-ran. March 15 will show his chances of getting the nomination are near zero and his fundraising will dry up, unless the GOP/Rove start funnelling him, only to weaken the Clintons.
you do realize that at a certain point, there will be a critical mass at which the party begins to say openly what they’ve been subtle about in the last few months: no one is nominating an avowed socialist who wanted to abolish the CIA, wants 80% taxes, and surrounds himself with Israel-haters like Noam Trotsky, Cornel West, and Lawrence Wilkerson.
I went with April 26, not so much because of any particular primaries but because late April feels about right in terms of the Bernie “movement” more or less accomplishing whatever it is that it’s trying to accomplish.
My thoughts exactly - well, except for the bus, although the possibility that one rogue Bernie Backer getting a little too close to her can change things has crossed my mind.
Anyway, if he can get himself placed into nomination, he’ll probably give a “Here are my points again…” speech; he could end with, “That being said, I withdraw my nomination,” but I don’t think he would do that to his delegates.
Oh no question I am a Hillary supporter. And would enthusiastically support a Democratic candidate Sanders in the general if he was nominated. But honestly this part is just for the fun of trying to read the tea leaves before the media shoves it down us like pablum.
Those who have answered never, that he will win, are free to post a poll asking when Clinton will suspend hers. I suspect that with a sizable unpledged delegate lead coming out of Super Tuesday and her superdelegates (which she’s try to hold onto unless there was both a meaningful Sanders lead in unpledged delegates and a Sanders popular vote lead) that she’d hold out until June 7th, assuming some unprecedented comeback for Sanders after Super Tuesday.
My vote was that he will drop on 3/15. Yes, I do expect him to lose very badly on 3/1. But even if he loses all but Vermont and maybe one other state with an exceptionally poor Texas performance showing no inroads with Hispanics (and I expect he will do better than that) he will hang through to (hopefully) get good performances in KS, NE, and ME on the books in the hope that such will buoy him in MI and the 3/15 states. Losses there will get him pivoting to consolidating his supporters behind Hillary and to defeating (it seems increasingly likely) Trump with downticket successes. He will declare victory in having moved the conversation to more progressive causes before greater losses pile up, diluting the strength of his message.
Sanders’ original purpose was to get his message out to people not to actually get nominated. He can still do that. He can stay in the race, even knowing he will not win it, and as long as people are listening he’s accomplishing something. He can stay in it all the way to the convention, see Clinton get nominated, and then endorse her and tell his supporters to vote for her.
I don’t think Bernie will continue if his realistic chance of winning fades, and certainly not if Hillary has a mathematical victory. He won’t do it because he’ll be seen as weakening Hillary in the general. I think if he sees the writing on the wall he’ll make a deal with her to drop out and get a chance to speak at the convention, and have her incorporate some of the core from his message into her campaign. She won’t have a problem doing that, she’s already been stealing his issues. Bernie we are better off with a dishonest unprincipled Democrat as president than any of the GOP candidates.
Since we are only talking about the alternate universe where Hillary is the nominee that’s a pretty good guess. Bernie will not have the money to continue a realistic challenge past that point based on the current polling. He won’t be showing signs of catching up to Hillary and his support will wane.
BTW: Hillary is taking advantage of the purpose of Super Tuesday, to give the southern Red states the power to crown the candidate early in the process. It works great for a Democratic establishment candidate because the Democratic party is a minority in those states and it’s members will be heavy supporters of the party’s ‘unofficial’ candidate.
If the margins in the demographics that Hillary won in SC stay the same, then I do not see Sanders staying past March 15th. I recall reading somewhere that she can win a majority of delegates by then as well.
If Sanders loses in a state like Massachusetts or Colorado on March 1st, then he really should just drop out and let Hillary save her money for the general election.
I went with March 26th. It’s only 4 days after the delegates awarded top 50% so why not stick around for those contests. At that point he’ll likely be in a serious delegate hole that’s clearly insurmountable even though he’s not mathematically eliminated. I’m assuming he continues spending heftily through March to try and actually win instead of choosing to budget like he’s losing and keep his message going longer. Without a lot of money and only two debates currently scheduled after that he’ll have a hard time getting his message out. Tilting after windmills later risks tying his message to a continuing string of that message losing.
Of course he’s not usually accused of being pragmatic so there’s some should versus will conflict. Still I don’t expect to see him come out of March unless he clearly budgets to do that instead of winning…
What does this mean, “stealing his issues”? What specific issues are you talking about?
And why does it matter? When Sanders got into the race, he said he was trying to move the conversation further to the left. Certainly many of his supporters have said exactly this–I suspect you could find several dozen such comments right here on this board without breaking a sweat.
I would think he and his supporters would be pleased to hear Clinton talking more like a Sanders.
As for the question–I don;t see him winning Illinois, Michigan, or Oho, and it seems to me that an inability to win these states should make it clear thagt he can’t win. There just aren’t enough New Hampshires, Colorados, and Minnesotas where he does well if he can’t win the big industrial (and diverse) Northern states. So that would mean 3/15. But I’ll actually go for 4/1. I think it will take a little longer for it to sink in for him. Nothing wrong with that.
She can’t win that percentage. Only 49.7% of all pledged delegates are awarded by that date. They may have included super delegates who obviously could change their mind if Sanders went on a roll in the back half of the primary cycle. There’s 712 of them this cycle with a total of 2383 delegates needed to win the nomination. Even with every last superdelegate committing she’d need to win 70.6% of all pledged delegates awarded through March 15th.