The situation in Afghanistan is more complicated than that.
The case is in some ways surprisingly similar to Serbia under Milosevic, and I sincerely hope recent history is taken into account if and when this disgustingly media-hyped war breaks out.
In Serbia, Milosevic and his ministers engaged in a lengthy propaganda campaign of massive proportions to convince the Serbian people that A) the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo were invading Serbian land, destroying Orthodox churches, hurting Serbs, etc.; and B) NATO had declared an unjust war against Serbs for trying to defend themselves.
To an extent, both claims are true. Ethnic Albanian terrorists, the KLA, were invading Serbian land, stirring unrest, bombing Orthodox churches, targetting Kosovar Serbs, slaughtering policemen, etc. No doubt about it–but they were terrorists, NOT the general Albanian population, which has lived alongside the Serbs for hundreds of years. NATO’s war against Serbia was indeed unjust, because it targeted the infrastructure necessary to the well-being of innocents (not to mention various other irregularities discussed on these boards). Milosevic cunningly manipulated information (and thus people) in order to ensure his own place.
Over a period of time, and thanks to the efforts of Serbs (particularly the idealistic youth groups), the collective Serbian mentality grew to understand the effects of Milosevic’s misinformation, toppled his regime, and embraced democracy once more under the leadership of a reluctant but brilliant statesman (Kostunica).
It wasn’t the bombing that accomplished this. That was no more than a cruel incentive. What won the war against Milosevic was information in the hands of the Serbs. One of the first things Kostunica did was broadcast on television (previously controlled by Milosevic’s regime) evidence of Serbian military atrocities, which the Serb population watched in shock and even denial.
The KLA, that group of miserable and despicable cowards, hopped pover the border to Macedonia, changed its name, and attempted the same shit there.
Now, when it comes to history most people are happy to generalize about poorly understood major events, but Serbia is still fresh compared to most other cases. It is a question of learning from experience, something that doesn’t always happen when patriotism and calls for war emerge.
Afghanistan is under the grip of a terrorist regime, make no mistake about it. The Taliban, who style themselves as Moslem scholars, took over the country using brute force in September 1996. Since then, the Taliban have engaged in their own massive propaganda campaign, setting up the key messages, destroying communications infrastructure, outlawing television and most technology, and generally enforcing a strict fundamentalist Islamic school of thought that amounts to nothing more than population control.
The people of Aghanistan themselves are in a sorry position. On one hand their standard of existence today is among the worse in the world; on the other hand, they are the victims of strong Taliban conditioning that has been going on for five years now. When word reaches them that the USA will declare war against Afghanistan, what are they to think? The Taliban, which controls most of the information in the country, is not their government of choice, but at the same time they are very anxious about being attacked yet again. And, since they are followers of Islam, they are being fooled into thinking that this is an attack against Islam on the part of the “anti-Arab/ anti-Islam” Americans. Like the Serbs under Milosevic, the Afghans under the Taliban are the innocent victims of violence and misinformation.
Now, in my opinion a careful program combining surgincal military action and targeted education will be FAR more effective in this case than any war. It will be cheaper too, and much easier on the global economy. But if the US government and the idiotic US media insist on portraying this as all-out war before the enemy is even defined, I fear there will be a repeat of Serbia-- probably more severe-- and a very strong backlash too.
The Afghans in general do not support the Taliban, but they will probably have no choice but support it if they perceive their religion or what remains of their well-being come under threat. These are all factors to consider.
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