You cannot realistically invent a scenario in which the entire would simultaneously stops investing the United States. It is less likely than the everyone in China jumping up and down at the same time.
The US is not in the same position as it was in 1973. the Military straddles some of the OPEC nations, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the threat of USSR intervention in a military response to an oil embargo is gone.
the Blackout earlier this earlier this year affected a third of the country yet barely registered as a hiccup. The electrical grid is not invulnerable, but easily repairable.
True or False? A growth in income disparities is irreversible and no economist in washington would realize that it could potentially be a problem.
As eponymous mentioned, there’s enduring and there’s enduring. If we’re around recognizably as what we call the USA today in two thousand years, we’ll compare notes with the Chinese on how we’re doing.
Barring something so cataclysmic it would also sock it to a lot of other parts of the world(*), it’s hard to imagine the USA being displaced as one of the essential major players in the world scene in the lifetime of those reading this board. HOWEVER… that someone else may come up that can play in the same league (for real, not faking it like the Soviet bloc) is not intrinsecally impossible, it just would take a lot of very hard work and time and the Powers That Be would try to trip them up at every turn. Again: “Very difficult” does not equal “impossible”, “foreseeable future” does not equal “forever”. Specially if the Hegemon gets complacent and lazy, as Hegemons sometimes do.
ANYWAY, the OP is severely flawed right at the end. If the proposition is “the US will endure forever”, the counterposition IS NOT “America is on the verge of collapse”, and vice-versa.
If you will forgive an IMHO-style reply in GD…I think the US is like one of Tolkien’s Elves, in this regard; a nasty enough trauma could kill it, but it won’t die of old age.
You know, it’s not like in the movies where if you blow up the super-battlefortress or punch the president in the face on national TV, the entire society collapses. The US has survived wars, 2 World Wars, a Great depression, natural disasters and a great big Civil War. The events you describe are tiny, if somewhat sensational, by comparison. We are a very adaptable society. That is one of our great strengths.
"Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? …All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth…in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. "
-Abraham Lincoln
"The continent of Atlantis was an island
Long before the great flood
and from it came forth the 12
the poet, the philospher, the magician
etc. . .
Refrain:
Way Down, Below the Ocean
Way Down, Benath the sea
Where I want to Be. . ."
[hijack]
Every time I read quotes by Lincoln and Jefferson, I am reminded of how far political discourse has fallen in this country. They were eloquent, and they wrote their own speeches!
As to the OP, I think something called “The United States of America” will be around for a very, very long time, but I have my doubts as to whether we would recognize it. After all, the “Holy Roman Empire” was around for–how many years? 1000?–but it wasn’t Rome.
Read Paul Kennedy “Rise and Fall of the Great Nations”. That should give you a good idea of how power come and go… how small things like legal or political changes spell the end or rise of mighty powers in time. Some powers like Prussia rose in very little time for example… some big ones crashed just as quick.
The US is economically more or less equal to europe... maybe a bit less. Now lets say the US falls 1% behind Europe every year. Not much of a decline is it ? Well in 50 years thats 50%. The US wouldn't be a superpower anymore... that's with only a 1% decline. They would be comparable to Germany ? In 100 years... 100%. Secondary power by then ? You don't need a mega catastrophe to take the US off the first spot... just constant and structural decline.
In a Newsweek article Paul Kennedy put it in a 3 tier example of power. The first is military. In that the US dominates… Second is soft power. Cultural dominance… power related to diplomacy and leadership. The US clearly losing in this now… and lastly economic. The share the US has of the world economy has steadily declined since WWII. Big ? Yes. Still its getting smaller comparatively to the world economy steadily. Internet use is bigger in Asia now than in the US. Other countries share are growing faster. If the world currency changes to the Euro that should set back the US economies capacity to lend so much, which means higher interest rates… less investment and consumers.
Xtisme talked about self correction in another thread... and that is what I consider the USA's strong point. The more or less free and over competitive economy means a much greater chance of adapting to economic changes. Unbogged by European style social spending for example... or Asian dubious government and business alliances. Take away that self correcting ability somehow... and the US economy will stop being so darn efficient. Be it government overspending or meddling... or lack of enough education...
No society endures for all time.
The United States will fall just like every other world power has. It won’t go out in nuclear attack, or in economic failure because those things have been planned for. The American people can endure that. USA will drift away from status as the most prosperous country slowly over a period of decades. There will be no great event, it will simple fade. Some other country will take up the reigns, and they will fall as well.
The fact that some are starting to believe their is no end to their success is the first sign that the success is nearing its end.
greece is still here, england too. they are hardly gone for good, even the city of rome still is hanging around. so its quite possible we will last for all time more or less. maybe not as king of the world, but in 2500 I suspect no one will fail to be able to point to america on a map, even if we aren’t the hottest kid on the block anymore.
How can America fade from its position of preeminent power? Let me count the ways.
A true EU. If the EU really becomes a single functional economic and military unit, maintaining the cultural riches of their member states while intermingling its members even more in a free flow and exchange of ideas and approaches, then they would eclipse American power and ingenuity in a historically short period of time. This may be hastened by American abuse of its power driving the EU to cohesion as an effective response. Driving the EU to out-America America, essentially.
Exccessive drive to become an empire. If America attempts to empire-build and overreaches its power, then it will run the course of other empires: it will spead itself too thin and wear itself down attempting to enforce its hegemony in too many venues at the same time.
Islamic fundamentalist extremism is alive and kicking … even without excessive empire-building, if moderate forces do not eventually prevail and integrate Islamic cultures into a cohesive world based on free flow of ideas and democratic values, then this extremism will continue to wear down American resources and American will as well. Current American policies seem unlikely to quickly help accomplish that goal and may be having somewhat of the opposite effect.
Transnational corporations may make nation states obsolete as units of power, or more as figureheads like the British royalty or the position of President in nations like Israel. In such a case this may be construed as an Americanization of the world, but such is a debatable POV.
We are young. The world is changing quickly, including in ways that cannot be foretold. There has been an American century, maybe there will be another, maybe not, but counting on forever is a bit premature.
Actually, I’d disagree with this statement. The Greeks, Arab states, China, and the British were all very widely known in their own domains and those they conquered, and in states that saw them as powerful. But America is the first culture that has eclipsed the globe, and perhaps the first that appeals so strongly to the layman as opposed to the elite. The latter fact may in part explain the former, along with the rise in telecommunications.
I thought Rome had this appeal to all of becoming something better of being a Citizen and for the soldiers of getting their Acres and becoming land owners. The Islamic wave that swept Northern Africa and the ME was surely based upon appealing to the common man... of following God's will.
I think America's "culture" isn't that strong actually. Its everywhere... but then its not that pervasive or strong. America's so called cultural dominance didn't change the fact that the absolute majority of the world hated Bush's action in Iraq... compared to former Empires whose cultural dominance was much stronger... its not much to look at. What is sometimes dubbed American culture is changed and adapted to local tastes pretty fast ...
If ANYONE suffers from Imperical overstretch it will be the EU. They plan to increase their market simply by tacking on more countries to the superstate? Imagine turkey and Britain being part of the same country. They are vastly different, where would the cohesion be? Turkey has the population of germany but would be one of the poorest countries in the EU. This year, the EU add such heavy hitters into their lineup as Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovenia, average GDP per person = $12,500. Europe’s time in the sun surely has come! (again).
As for European military, they cannot even handle an ethnic cleansing on their border, and European military spending levels have waned since 1990. They are still under NATO’s thumb, look how quickly Brussels fell into line when Rumsfeld threatened to move NATO headquarters away from them. link.
America’s population is growing actually, and not by annexxing territories. Europe’s population is in decline. By 2050, the american workforce will be large than Europe’s. link. If the American and EU economies are at parity now, where will the be when Europe’s working population continues to dwindle?
But is an economic downturn in the US or upswing in Europe that far-fetched that the US supremacy goes unchallenged?
Let’s take two large, fairly stable industries that the US has dominated in recent times, health care and pharmaceuticals.
Let’s say that the cure (and if not cure, most effective treatment) for AIDS, cancer, diabetes, etc. is just setting out there waiting to be discovered.
Let’s say that the answer is related to stem cell research. Since we have effectively banned this practice, aren’t we already behind the eight ball in that scenario? Even if one European country is opposed to it, that isn’t going to stop the rest of them.
Brandus, what you point out is why a true EU is currently unlikely in any near term, not the effects of one if it existed. The US is made up of a variety of very divergent groups. In its early days they had very different economic interests. The Civil War was as much about federalism as it was about slavery; as much about keeping states with divergent interests and POVs together as it was about human rights. But the US is today a cohesive entity made up of vastly different parts, whether you slice it by demographic group or states or whathaveyou. Pulling off that kind of cohesion is not impossible for the EU even if it is currently unlikely, but it would require a push; fear of the American empire could be part of that push. It does not exist today and is not likely in the foreseeable future, but who knows what a few decades can bring?
Let me float this idea: a politically unified Europe within the next fifty years is unlikely. However, Europe doesn’t have to be unified for them to challenge American economic dominance. If trade barriers within Europe continue falling, this benefits the European economies even if the national governments remain distinct. In contrast, if the results of recent trade talks are any indication, the US will not have much luck turning all of the Western hemisphere into a single free trade zone.
The bottom line is that economic policies will decide whether the US stays on top, or whether Europe eclipses it. When I look at the US, I see that many industries now seem more interested in scooping up government handouts rather than in innovating and expanding on their own. While the same thing happens in Europe, of course, it doesn’t seem to be as universal. Consider what’s happening right now:
Airbus is kicking Boeing’s ass.
American carmakers are losing market share to European and Japanese competitors.
The American steel industry can’t compete with Europe’s, hence the recent dispute over tariffs.
Hollywood is sending more and more film productions to Europe and elsewhere.
The biotech industry increasingly favors Europe because they find fewer restrictions there.
Looking at all this and many other warning signs, I see good reason to belive that Europe’s economic star may be rising within the next generation.