An idea on how to defeat ISIS. Simple or simple minded?

[Salvor]

I think the problem with this plan is that I’ve come to the opinion that the efficacy of these sorts of external interventions relies in large part on the nature of the occupied population. I don’t know the details of shintoism, but how does that compare to the gutter swamp of Islam as a set of ideas and its impact on the population?
The attitudes of the locals matter, I still think it’s possible but the amount of time it would take to FORCE a change could take decades. I wish we were dealing with a population of kurds, but we’re not and there does not seem to be the same critical mass of decent people to treat with to speed the process towards modernity along, so it will be a slog.

[Sam_Stone]

Don’t worry about it. ISIS is just the JV team, remember?

[coremelt]

@Salvor

I think the problem with this plan is that I’ve come to the opinion that the efficacy of these sorts of external interventions relies in large part on the nature of the occupied population. I don’t know the details of shintoism, but how does that compare to the gutter swamp of Islam as a set of ideas and its impact on the population?

Absolutely, in Japan’s case the Emperor made an audio broadcast confirming his decision for the government of Japan accepting the Potsdam declaration (unconditional surrender). This was opposed by many in the military who tried to stop the broadcast. If the Emperor had instead broadcast a message urging people to resist the occupation to the end, then Japan’s post war history would have been very very different.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Bryan_Ekers

Here’s a better idea: flood the disputed areas with cheap satellite dishes that can pick up unscrambled (and subtitled) James Bond movies, Baywatch episodes and soft core porn. ISIS will naturally try to confiscate these, cementing in the minds of the average citizen types that they are a bunch of killjoys and nuisances. This should undercut their support.

Also known as “Defeating the Warsaw pact with Levis and Bruce Springsteen”, which, if you talk to Soviet-era citizens of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR, was a far more influential strategy than boycotting thr Olympics, transmitting VOA propaganda, or building nuclear arsenals. Nothing gets a populate more upset and the governing clowns than restricting and repressing their pleasures and casual vices.

Stranger

[octopus]

@WF_Tomba

To be honest, I still don’t understand why the occupation of Germany and Japan did work.

Total war has that effect.

[Horatio_Hellpop]

You know how we tune out Israel every time they want us to attack Iran? That’s how the allies feel every time an American president uses the word “coalition.”

[DWMarch]

@FlikTheBlue

I think we can all agree that ISIS is a threat to the world that needs to be dealt with. The main question is what is the best way of doing so. What do you all think of the idea of massive amounts of boots on the ground? My thinking is that a large invasion force of multinational troops to both invade and truly occupy the ISIS territory would be successful. I’m thinking a huge number, say 500,000 to 1,000,000. The troops would come from multiple nations in addition to the USA. I’m picturing a contribution from all the developed world, including the UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, South Korea, and maybe even Japan after the invasion part is complete. The supply line would be via Turkey. Once the area has been invaded, we would disarm the populace by force. All tenets of Radical Islam would be banned by law, the same way that Nazism and State Shinto were banned (successfully I might add) by law in post WWII Germany and Japan. The newly conquered territory would have troops patrolling the streets, not hunkered down in bases in the countryside. A western style constitution would be imposed by law, similar to how MacArthur imposed his constitution in Japan. Administration could be a multinational effort, but to avoid the perception of Western imperialism by Iran and Saudi Arabia, I would suggest maybe South Korea take the lead role. Yes, this is imperialism, but the main idea is not to avoid the idea of imperialism in general, but that of Western imperialism in particular so that interference by regional neighbors is kept to a minimum. Once the area has been pacified by force of arms, the rest of the world could then help in rebuilding the economy of the area, just like the economies of Germany and Japan were rebuilt after WWII.

I may have posted somethings similar to this in the past, so please forgive me if I have. Other than lack of political will, what would be the main obstacles to the success of such a plan? My guess is that this would probably succeed, and that the only reason it hasn’t been done yet is the aforementioned lack of political will from developed nations.

I also think that assuming the Iraq invasion was going to be done, this is how the the occupation should have been handled, rather than the way Bush did. If it had been done this way, I think the region would not be experiencing the problems it is currently experiencing.

Your plan is to replace ISIS with an American version of ISIS. Put the shoe on the other foot. If the rest of the world decided the Western world was the source of all its problems and decided to invade the USA with millions of troops, would you say to yourself “You know, our cultural values really are fucked up. I should do as these invaders say.” Or would you fight them to the last breath?

[AK84]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

Also known as “Defeating the Warsaw pact with Levis and Bruce Springsteen”, which, if you talk to Soviet-era citizens of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR, was a far more influential strategy than boycotting thr Olympics, transmitting VOA propaganda, or building nuclear arsenals. Nothing gets a populate more upset and the governing clowns than restricting and repressing their pleasures and casual vices.

Stranger

You think they don’t have access to all that in Syria or Iraq? It’s extremely simple minded to think that people are going to change their world views based upon popular culture.

[coremelt]

@DWMarch

Your plan is to replace ISIS with an American version of ISIS.

So America and the Allies became Nazified when they occupied Germany and Japan? No they didn’t.

At the moment ISIS is not an existential threat to anyone other than their surrounding countries but their stated aim is a world wide caliphate with only their interpretation of Islam as valid and everyone else either killed or forced to pay tribute. This in their public statements and can be independently verified. Declaring war on them in return is valid and justified.

[CoolHandCox]

What’s wrong with the al Qaeda strategy? Haven’t heard much from them in awhile.

[DWMarch]

@coremelt

So America and the Allies became Nazified when they occupied Germany and Japan? No they didn’t.

At the moment ISIS is not an existential threat to anyone other than their surrounding countries but their stated aim is a world wide caliphate with only their interpretation of Islam as valid and everyone else either killed or forced to pay tribute. This in their public statements and can be independently verified. Declaring war on them in return is valid and justified.

What are the million troops for in your scenario? Are they going to just stand around and smile and wave until they win over the hearts and minds of the people they are conquering? No, the purpose of the million troops is to kill people. To offer violence so readily and so close to home that the conquered population will have no choice but to submit. And that is exactly what ISIS is doing right now.

[Rune]

@even_sven

Ah yes, the old “colonialism, but this time it’s different I promise” plan. It seems to get posted here once a month as a solution to some problem or another.

Is allied occupation of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan considered colonialism these days? Whatever, it’s not like a word makes a difference. Those occupations/colonialisations certainly were required and beneficial.

[Rune]

@CoolHandCox

What’s wrong with the al Qaeda strategy? Haven’t heard much from them in awhile.

al Qaeda is busy in Syria, Yemen and in Libya, and one of the terrorists of the Charlie Hebdo attack claimed to be a trained al Qaeda operative from Yemen.

[Morgenstern]

I’m watching Putin carefully right now. Assume that the proof comes in that ISIS downed their airliner, I suspect we’ll see a long line of Russian tanks driving through ISIS lines and leaving smoldering decay where they once stood. That may be enough for ISIS to decide that burning the ISIS candle on both ends isn’t really wise.

[Rune]

@DWMarch

Your plan is to replace ISIS with an American version of ISIS. Put the shoe on the other foot. If the rest of the world decided the Western world was the source of all its problems and decided to invade the USA with millions of troops, would you say to yourself “You know, our cultural values really are fucked up. I should do as these invaders say.” Or would you fight them to the last breath?

Is this some kind of cultural relativism? The shoe on the other foot, is that putting yourself in ISIS place? I feel no trepidation saying that ISIS and Islamists in general are fucked up, and Western culture is superior. Not sure I want the West to assume the massive job of such occupation, but it would absolutely be a net benefit to replace ISIS with some version of US culture.

[coremelt]

@DWMarch

What are the million troops for in your scenario? Are they going to just stand around and smile and wave until they win over the hearts and minds of the people they are conquering? No, the purpose of the million troops is to kill people. To offer violence so readily and so close to home that the conquered population will have no choice but to submit. And that is exactly what ISIS is doing right now.

Read my post #17. I do not advocate the US putting ground troops to occupy ISIS territory. They should be beaten back and their territory taken by the Kurds and Iraqi army with US help and by Assad’s forces in Syria with Russian help.

ISIS is estimated to have between 30,000-100,000 fighters depending on who you believe. Its doubtful that they have majority support of the populations of the towns they occupy, read the reports of life under ISIS rule.

[Morgenstern]

CIA in the fall suggested ISIS had between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters. An educated guess I’m sure.

The US claims that as many as 10,000 have been killed to date. Any way you look a that, ISIS has suffered pretty extensive losses and certainly maintaining that rate of loss will not be possible for long.

[Novelty_Bobble]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

Also known as “Defeating the Warsaw pact with Levis and Bruce Springsteen”, which, if you talk to Soviet-era citizens of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR, was a far more influential strategy than boycotting thr Olympics, transmitting VOA propaganda, or building nuclear arsenals. Nothing gets a populate more upset and the governing clowns than restricting and repressing their pleasures and casual vices.

Stranger

Absolutely, Brian Ekers was perhaps tongue-in-cheek but it hits far closer to the solution than boots on the ground.
This is why fascist and totalitarian regimes fear any sort of external democratisation or western influences. It is addictive. You give a little and it is a hard thing to roll it back.

You can’t defeat ISIS militarily, not unless you are willing to occupy and control the danger areas permanently. This is not analogous to any major western conflict seen so far.
I’m afraid that these attacks are the price we will have to pay for living the way we do until this particular brand of terrorism runs it’s course. It could be years and in the meantime we should step up the vigilance and counter-terrorism, disrupt ISIS where we can, all the while ensuring we don’t slip into a police-state mentality. Living free is the best “fuck-you” to those that would kill us and the best advertisement for those who may otherwise fall into their clutches.
So I’m afraid the solution is not perfect, glamorous or aesthetically awesome, nor is it quick or even guaranteed…sorry.

[Ramira]

@Bryan_Ekers

Here’s a better idea: flood the disputed areas with cheap satellite dishes that can pick up unscrambled (and subtitled) James Bond movies, Baywatch episodes and soft core porn. ISIS will naturally try to confiscate these, cementing in the minds of the average citizen types that they are a bunch of killjoys and nuisances. This should undercut their support.

What can one say about suggestions that show the person knows literally nothing about the situation and understands literally nothing about the area?

of course cheap satellite dishes have been easily available for more than 20 years throughout the region and the free-to-air satellite stations are in the hundreds on the arabsat, the nilesat, the eursat. and yes you can if you want find the pornography and even the western movies - subtitled or dubbed or not - freely and easily…

Why one thinks this is new…

[DWMarch]

@Rune

Is this some kind of cultural relativism? The shoe on the other foot, is that putting yourself in ISIS place? I feel no trepidation saying that ISIS and Islamists in general are fucked up, and Western culture is superior. Not sure I want the West to assume the massive job of such occupation, but it would absolutely be a net benefit to replace ISIS with some version of US culture.

I am saying that no matter who and where you are, when a million soldiers from the other side of the world show up and tell you your culture is unacceptable and you will change it or else… you might not be so inclined to agree. Germany and Japan agreed after WWII, sure. But how much suffering did they have to go through first?