An Ode to Bobby Cox

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

Bobby Cox just keeps on rolling, doesn’t he? I thought that, before the postseason comes along to burst my bubble, I’d mention where he currently stacks up on a number of indices of managerial success:

  • Ninth in lifetime wins with 1906
  • Thirteenth in all-time winning percentage, at .565
  • Third in wins over .500, at 441

Bill James, in The Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers, came up with two other useful indices of managerial success.

The first is a somewhat arbitrary, rule-of-thumb (by his own admission) sort of measure: for each season, a manager gets one point for each of the six following achievements his team attains: having a winning record, having a record of 20 or more games over .500, winning 100 or more games, winning its division, winning the AL/NL championship, and winning the World Series.

On this index, Bobby Cox is fourth with 55 points, behind only all-time greats John McGraw, Connie Mack, and Joe McCarthy, all of whom score in the 70s.

A second measures how a manager does each year, compared to his expected wins. It derives from a reasonably battle-tested formula of James’ that computes a team’s expected wins for an upcoming season. It basically says a team’s win expectation in a given year is the average of four seasons like last year, one like the year before last, one like the year before that, and two .500 seasons. So the formula looks like:

[4*(last year’s wins) + (wins 2 years ago) + (wins 3 years ago) + 2*81]/8

with adjustment for differing lengths of season where necessary.

This gauge is obviously limited to the regular season, where Cox is at his best, and in fact, he’s #1 by a good margin when rated this way, with 149 wins above expectation. (Marse Joe is second with 126 wins more than expected.)

Obviously, there are a lot of different legitimate ways to rate managers, if we’re going to rate them. None of them is the perfect measure, and all of them have different strengths and weaknesses. I’m not here to argue that Bobby Cox is the best manager ever (not with only one World Series ring), nor even that he’s the best regular-season manager ever (though an argument could be made, I’m sure).

But he’s clearly established himself as one of the all-time greats. He’s not Mack or McCarthy or McGraw (what’s with all the initial M’s here, anyway?). I’d even make an argument that the Earl of Baltimore was a better manager than Cox; the difference between the two seems to me to have a lot to do with Cox’ having spent most of his baseball life with prosperous organizations, and Weaver having managed the Orioles when they were definitely second-tier, resource-wise.

But this isn’t about where he stands on that list; it’s simply an appreciation that he’s most definitely on the list, and he manages to keep on doing what he’s doing.

2

Couldn’t agree more, and it’s great to hear someone who recognizes the magnitude of Cox’s achievements speak up, instead of having to listen to all the football-brained yahoos complaining about how he “can’t win the big ones”.

The things that impress me most about Bobby Cox are the things that aren’t obvious at first glance, but I believe they’re the things that keep him at or near the top of the list of managers that most players want to play for: [ul]
[li]He never criticizes a player in public[/li][li]He knows what role he’s expecting each player to fill[/li][li]He communicates each player’s role to them clearly[/li][li]He emphasizes what a player can do to help the team, not what they can’t do[/li][li]He expects players to respect themselves, their teammates, their opponents, and the game[/li][li]He’s loyal to his players, almost to a fault, until a player demonstrates that he doesn’t deserve it[/li][/ul]

Bill James touches on most of these in the tome you mention, and attributes Cox’s approach to lessons he learned from Ralph Houk in the Yankee organization. Whatever the source, he’s internalized these characteristics so completely that (for example) I can’t recall a single instance of Cox bad-mouthing any player, for the Braves or otherwise, in the press. His mid-inning benching of Andruw Jones for a perceived failure to hustle a couple of years ago drew the attention it did because it was so unusual.

You might be right that Earl Weaver was a better manager; I’d certainly entertain arguments that he was among the greatest game tacticians ever. Cox isn’t going to entertain or surprise you that often with his game decisions. But as James also points out, the number of game situations where managerial decisions swing the result one way or the other just isn’t that great. A perfect baseball mind would probably only result in an extra ten or twelve wins a season for most teams, and probably fewer for strongly talented teams. What Cox excels in, and what he’s done consistently over the last dozen years with the Braves, is ensuring that his teams are as well prepared as possible to play the game day in and day out, that everyone on those teams knows what they’re expected to do, and that everyone on those teams knows that they’re not going to be publicly ripped for not doing things that they’re not able or expected to do.

I’ll also say that a Bobby Cox can only be as effective as he’s been in an environment where the whole organization is geared toward developing or acquiring players who’re able to fill the roles that are defined for them; there’s always an element of luck or happenstance in which players develop into stars and which ones get injured or have bad seasons, but from John Schuerholz on down, the Braves organization has consistently put teams on the field that are capable of winning 95-100 games a season; with the exception of Fred McGriff in 1993 and maybe one or two others, the Braves’ in-season acquisitions have been focused on filling specific roles rather than picking up an alleged “impact player” in the hopes that they’ll work some kind of magic. Obviously, Cox has a big say in who gets acquired and retained and who doesn’t, but he doesn’t do it alone.

3

Wholehearted agreement here. People don’t like him, which is fine, but you can’t deny the man’s credentials. 12 division titles in a row? Absurdly good. You can’t be much more consistently great than that. Yes, he’s only got one World Series ring. Bill Parcells only won the Super Bowl once (15 years ago), and everybody around football thinks he’s Jesus.
Not that winning big games isn’t important, but a lot of people now seem to think you can’t be great without a championship. Tell that to Dan Marino and Barry Bonds. Of course, these days, most of the great players wrangle trades to winning teams for the express purpose of winning the big one. (I have no problem with that either, but perhaps you get the idea.)

4

It’s been an amazing run … one unparalleled in all of American mainstream sports (The St. Louis Blues have more consecutive years of being in the playoffs, but not of winning their division). I doubt anything like it will ever happen again.

But it isn’t just Cox.

Ask the present pitching staff, or past Braves pitchers, about Leo Mazzone. John Smoltz (and has said as much) would be a baseball coach in the Detroit school system if not for Mazzone. Maddux might well have been traded or have been doing poorly the past few years. Had Glavine been with the team this year he would probably have won 15+ games, instead of the rather trying year he had with the Mets.

Given the sub-par year (compared to others in their run), another manager might have fired Mazzone. Coz didn’t. He knows Mazzone knows what he’s doing.

Ask, for example, Andruw Jones about Terry Pendleton 's hitting advice. Jones routinely goes into slumps. This is fairly common to most players (aside from Gary Sheffield), but another manager might make a “statement” by firing the hometown favorite Pendleton and bringing in a big-name coach for hitting.

Cox knows Pendleton and trusts him. And given their past history together I’d trust Pendleton too. Remember who one of the fireplugs was for that first team that won the NL West pennant? And what other HOF manager has Pendleton played for … and while some of the best for that team, ever, were there?

Larussa and his Cardinals.

Pendleton knows his stuff, and Cox knows it.
There is a certain amount of fate/luck involved. Who knew, back in 1991, that Larry Jones would turn out better than Todd van Poppel? Fred McGriff would bring a boon to the Braves, true, but who could tell they’d be THAT good after getting him?

Look, too, at the talent they’ve traded away. Millwood. Jermaine Dye. Ryan Klesko. David Justice. Neagle (whom they only had for a season or two, to be honest). Tony Tarasco. Wes Helms (who is not in the news a lot, but from what I gather is a fan favorite in Milwaukee). When you can trade away those kind of players, you can get back pretty much whatever you need to fill the holes in your team.

Ultimately, though, Cox has two factors to thank above all: money and John Schuerholz. Without John’s baseball expertise Cox would probably have pulled his hair out a long time ago. And without the money to keep those players they traded for (or drafted, then put in their farm system), they wouldn’t be nearly as good.
I was nine for the 1991 summer, when we were 9.5 games behind the LA Dodgers at the all-star break. Pete van Wieren and Don Sutton had hope, but they didn’t know if it could be done.

I knew. I haven’t known many things before in my life, but I knew that team would do it. They had indefatigable heart, uncharted talent and a group of coaches who just wouldn’t let them lose.

And on the second to last day of the 1991 season, they did what had been thought unthinkable … come from almost a ten game deficit to beat Tommy Lasorda’s Dodgers. I knew it would happen. I can’t explain it, and I barely remember that second half of the season, but I … knew.

I knew they’d go to the World Series, too. Just … knew.

Unfortunately, I also knew they’d lose to the Twins. When they lost the first two games in the Metrodome, I was pretty sure. When they won the next 3 games at Atlanta Fulton County Stadium, I had some hope. But as my father put it, “The sportswriters are saying that if they don’t win game 6, they won’t win Game 7.”

You didn’t need to tell me that. I had a feeling. They wouldn’t win it all. It just … wasn’t going to happen.

In 1995, though … there wasn’t much of anything standing in their way. The Reds had a very good team, but the Braves had a magic about them that wouldn’t be defeated. The Indians had one of several very good teams they’d take to the World Series in the middle of that decade, but … again it was that magic. The Braves just wouldn’t lose.

They’ve had that magic a few other times since. They had it against the Mets a few years back, when they went six games and beat them (I think) on a walk by Andruw Jones in the last of the ninth with the bases loaded. Full count and the pitch was thrown … it was meant to induce a strikeout, but not looking. Andruw didn’t swing, and the Mets didn’t celebrate.

I feel that magic again. I’ll put up Furcal and Giles against the 1-2 of any lineup. Some of them are as fast, others have as much (or more) power, some hit for contact as well, but I defy anyone to come up with a 1-2 combo in use by any current team that could (and would) perform as Furcal and Giles could.

Sheffield, for all the talk he’s gotten for MVP, is really doing what five or six others on the Braves club could do in his spot. Javy Lopez, given the chance, could have had about 160 RBI in Shef’s spot. Chipper Jones didn’t have 160 RBI for the same reason: if there were men on base, Shef probably got them home.

And he was still over 100 RBI for the 8th consecutive year. I must be spoiled … I’ve come to expect there to be at least 2 or 3 Braves every year who knock in 100 RBI.

I am not disappointed.

Andruw Jones has been progressing every year since he announced his presence with authority (and didn’t get taken yard). Two home runs in his first two World Series at-bats. It doesn’t get a lot more authoritative than that. And even with his current numbers I still see him getting better. It’s not that he’s bad … a guy with 36/116 is doing pretty well. True, he hit only .277, but he struck out a LOT. And he’s going to get better. The man is only 26 years old and already has over a thousand hits. He’ll get HR 250 and RBI 700 next year, barring a collapse (he’s currently at 221/675). And to quote countless sports broadcasters, he’s better at defense than offense.

That, friends, is scary. He has five Gold Gloves so far, and barring the unforeseen, he’ll have 15, easy, before he retires. Assuming he hits 30 HR each year after this until he gets his 15th Gold Glove, he’ll have over 500 homers. And he’ll be 36.

Javy Lopez had an MVP season, if you ask me. Rather than trying to dramatize his year, here are the numbers. And bear in mind he’s hitting number 6, after three Ceritified Ball Bashers:



Runs Hits 2B 3B  HR  TB  RBI BB SO BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
89   150  29 3   43  314 109 33 90 .328 .378  .687  1.065

That, friends, is a monster year for a lot of players, and this man hit 6th and played arguably the most defense-intensive position on the diamond.

Robert Fick came from out of nowhere to play first base. My sister tells me he was in Detroit last year. What a change of scenery that must be. I know there are 1Bers with more power, and with more speed, and with greater baseball acumen, but really, with Giles (tremendous power for his size and position), Shef and Chipper (68 HR and 238 RBI between them) hitting all in a row, you don’t need someone to blast the ball over the fence.

Having someone in there who can make the defense shift up a bit is nice, though. Fick seems to be a natural pull hitter. I see 1Bers practically straddling the line all the time when he’s up and he still rifles the ball past them, or he puts it where they’d be for just about any other hitter instead. You don’t want a defense to get comfortable playing in the same ten-foot patch of grass for innings at a time, and Fick definitely safeguards against that.

Vinny Castilla is the only position player “remaining” from that 1991 team, and I put that word in quotes because he played with some other teams before coming back. During a game in the past month, Vinny came up with men on base (shocking, I know). IIRC, first base ssa open. The gme was on TBS and one of the announcers (Chip or Don) recalled the words of one coach, who said he never intentionally walked men hitting number 8 “because there’s a reason he’s hitting number 8.” Whoever recalled those words noted that on most lineups that was accurate, but Vinny was hitting number 8 not because he was bad but because he was hitting ahead of a former MVP, a possible MVP, another possible MVP and two other fantastic players.

An amazing lineup. We’re spoiled, really … we aren’t used to putting up this many runs. We scored the most runs of anyone in the NL, and only ONE team in the AL scored more (let’s remember who has the DH). And if we had a DH and he drove in even 60 runs, we’d have Boston (and we’d have a horrid DH).

One of the most difficult races in recent history (compared with the cakewalks we’ve also had). Not quite as nail-biting as 1993 or … was in '98 when we beat the Mets by one game? But still … the Marlins and Phillies kept us honest, and got a 15-game lead down to 8.5 before things returned to normalcy.

Hell of a year. Here’s to another.

5

Chipper Jones’ real name is Larry, huh?

6

Larry Wayne Jones.

Back in the '98 Season (I think), when Chipper had his way with the Mets and got taunted accordingly, they used to chant “Larry! Larry!” when he came up to bat. They made 3 stooges jokes, the whole works.

Then he hit 4 HR in 3 games against them, leading his team to another NL East pennant and forcing them to be satisfied with a wild card berth. And was rewarded handsomely as the NL MVP.

7

That’ll be the 1999 season, actually.

8

Pendleton never played for LaRussa in St. Louis – or anywhere else. Not even close. Whitey Herzog was the manager when he came up in 1984, and Whitey’s last partial season with the Cards in 1990 was also Pendleton’s last there; Red Schoendienst and Joe Torre also managed the Redbirds in 1990. LaRussa didn’t take the Cards’ managerial job until 1996. In Florida, Pendleton’s next stop after Atlanta, he played for a host of forgettables, including Rene Lachemann, Cookie Rojas, and John Boles. After another brief stop in Atlanta, he played for Ray Knight and Jack McKeon in Cincinnati and Tony Muser in Kansas City.

Nevertheless, I agree that Pendleton’s done an excellent job as batting coach; the players certainly speak highly of him, as do the Braves’ offensive numbers this year.

9

Knew it was one of them … my off-hand knowledge of 1980s baseball is hampered, in part, by the fact that I hever watched a game live (started watching baseball in the 1991 season). I did of course mean Herzog:)

10

Glad to see this one kicking about, still.

rackensack - I agree with you about the overall low effect of in-game managerial strategy on W/L records. While I think that Weaver was one of the best game tacticians ever, I doubt that even Weaver would have concluded that that was what made him a successful manager.

There were several strengths that Weaver and Cox had in common. Your second, third, and fourth bullets for Cox were Weaver’s strengths as well. And they both have/had a nearly preturnatural ability to keep their starting pitchers healthy and successful over many years. (I’ll let others argue about how much of this was due to them, and how much to their pitching coaches. Weaver had a few different pitching coaches in Baltimore; Cox has only had Rockin’ Leo on his current tour of duty in Atlanta.) Weaver did better with closers, though.

One of Weaver’s strengths was in making sure he had ‘deep depth’ on his roster - it was chosen with care so that he’d have the right combination of skills present, all the way down to the 25th man. His attention to the lower end of the roster - unusual back in the 1970s - gave him the flexibility to do a lot of those in-game moves for which he was famous. In Weaver’s case, it might have actually made a difference; in the 1982 Abstract, Bill James pointed out that Weaver’s teams finished a cumulative 25 games above their Pythagorean expectation over the preceding five seasons.

I’d also agree with you that having an organization that effectively supports Cox’ style of managing and provides him with the players he needs, is a significant factor in his success: no field manager can succeed for long if he and his front office aren’t on the same wavelength.

One thing people forget is that Cox was the Braves’ GM for, what, four or five years before he became their field manager in 1991. He was able to create the sort of organization that he would want to work within as manager, then got to be manager within the organization he created.

That’s no knock on Schuerholz - a dozen years is time to screw things up many times over if you’re not that good a GM. He’s held up his end of things quite well.

11

Schuerholz was also in the Royals’ system for many years, if I remember the bit ESPN did on him, and helped assemble their championship run. So he’s clearly got a few of those gray cells working well enough:)

12

Ok, I only got to skim most of this, because I have 15 minutes left at lunch, but I just have to say thank you RTFirefly. I’ve been a loyal Braves fan all my life (being born in GA) and over the past 6-8 years the Braves have gotten a lot of flack from the entire nation. People are tired of seeing them win? Why? Would they be complaining if it was their team?

I know that Bobby Cox’s personal life hasn’t been much to be proud of, but I can’t imagine the Braves being where they are today without him. He’s not afraid to fight for his players, and he’s not afraid to make unpopular decisions for the betterment of the team (re:Andruw Jones benching).

And imapunha, please…no Javy Lopez talk around me dear. I just don’t know if I can stand the excitement. I have a girlfriend that now watches the Braves because of MY infatuation with him. ~fans herself~

~J

13

Jaade - you’re welcome.

I’ll admit to being a Johnny-come-lately as a Braves fan; I didn’t have to deal with any of the bad times. My wife did; she’s always rooted for them. Just after we got married in 1991, we got cable, and started watching the Braves’ games together; that’s when I got sucked in. I can still remember everybody dogpiling on Sid Bream at home plate when he scored on Cabrera’s single to beat the Pirates in the '92 NLCS. And then their edging the Giants by a single game, 104 wins to 103, in the Last Pennant Race Ever, the following year…<sigh>…I miss real pennant races. But I digress.

punha - I remember Schuerholz in KC. At one time, Bill James was quite critical of him, because James is a Royals fan, and Schuerholz at first opted for very short-term solutions for a lot of the Royals’ problems. He’s definitely grown as a GM since then.

But what you say about Javy is absolutely true. A player who puts up those numbers while playing one of the most defensively demanding positions deserves MVP consideration ahead of a player who puts up great numbers at a position where good hitting is more or less required.