The fifth (effectively last) place finisher in SC thinks it means the party Establishment should consolidate his way.
It’s weird seeing the “raise self-esteem, everyone’s a winner” attitude is taking over the GOP. 
Kasich has a point. Rubio is not ready to be President and has already had a nearly candidacy-killing stumble. Kasich is the much more stable and ready choice. Kasich rushing out of the race before Rubio has actually proved anything as a campaigner is just a tad premature.
Let’s see if Kasich can win Michigan. If he can’t, then he should drop out.
How’d that work out in SC?
Unfortunately for you, your party shows no evidence of either knowing or caring.
Have you taken time yet to reconsider who your party really ought to be?
He didn’t campaign in SC. Kasich is 1-0 against Rubio in states they’ve both competed in. If Rubio can’t beat an underfunded challenger in states where he spends his limited resources, Rubio won’t beat Clinton or Trump. Besides, Bush is out. Let’s see how much of Bush’s support goes to Kasich. Bush was a favorite of those valuing executive experience. Well, there’s one guy left with executive experience for them to support.
For the same reason he can’t campaign effectively anywhere else, as you know. He’s no longer a factor - he doesn’t have the money or the organization or the momentum. He put everything on the table in NH and got 10 percent there. So friggin’ what?
Wrong. They’re both 0-3 against Trump. There is no such thing as second place.
Even if that’s “all of it”, nobody will notice a difference, hmm? The last Relatively Sane Man with any chance to beat Trump is Rubio.
Early tests suggest that Kasich will receive a plurality of Bush’s supporters. The real question is, if (ok, when) Kasich drops out will these people move to Contestant #3 or just start staying home at that point because they don’t strongly favor anyone left?
Why not just ask them? They seem like a very nice couple.
I agree with adaher. There’s a chance the donor class could break for Kasich. And so far Trump has not been ad-bombed in any serious way. Kasich is still a long shot, but it’s important that the Republican Party reflect on whether it wants to nominate someone with no political experience or knowledge of public policy. Instead, they may want to consider a first term Senator who is hated by almost everyone he knows. The Republican base may be crazy, but there are many ways of manifesting that trait. They need to make some choices.
It’s a hard decision. Kasich highlights the fact that neuro-typicals need not apply, which provides a useful contrast.
The advantage of Ted Cruz over Rubio is that Cruz is a heck of a lot smarter and is absolutely ruthless. And a champion debater.
Granted its been a pretty crazy cycle, but Michigan isn’t until March 8th. Almost half the states will have voted by then. That’d be a ridiculously late start to turn into a win.
He needs to come in first in at least a few states between now and then. Vermont, Massachcettes, Minnesota. There are several that seem like they’d be plausible pickups for a (relatively) moderate candidate. And even if he wins those, he still seems like a longshot.
Even Gulliani’s much ridiculed FL strategy only waited till the end of January to start winning states.
Kasich did compete in NH and won the establishment lane. He also needs to win the establishment lane in those more moderate states, although he can finish behind Trump.
At this point he’s not trying to outrun Trump, he’s trying to outrun Rubio.
The “establishment lane” thing really only makes sense for the first few primaries, when relatively few actual delegates are at stake, and the main thing is to set up the narrative going into super Tuesday, when actual meaningful numbers of delegates are awarded. By then, candidates need to either be in the “actually winning the most delegates lane” or be thinking about spending more time with their families.
The idea that Kaisch is going to turn managing to turn wrestling 3rd place away from Rubio after twenty odd states have already voted into a win is fanciful.
Bolding mine.
I don’t mean to pile on poor **adaher **here, but that was the best laugh I’ve had in 2 weeks. You win the thread! All 115 posts of it.
Succinct. Brutal. And I didn’t see it coming. Truly excellent. Thank you.
He’s also a humbled, anointed messianic figure who will save our butts. He says so.
And so does his dad.
And his wife:
(I’m not making fun of you. Just him and his minions.)
According to the NYT, some billionaire named Stanley Druckenmiller is signing on to help finance the Kasich campaign. Onwards to March!
Kasich has signed a bill defunding Planned Parenthood in Ohio. Feh: Governor John Kasich signs Ohio bill to cut Planned Parenthood funding
Oof, and here the most recent polling from Mass.
Polling in NV and NJ is similar. The idea that Kaisich is going to pull ahead by winning Blue states seems pretty remote. Even if he beats Rubio, a second place win where you have less than a third of the vote share of the front runner doesn’t establish you as “winning the establishment lane”, its just going to establish the other guy in the “winning lane”.
Yep. It’s well past time to retire the “Radical Lane / Establishment Lane” thinking.
Had there been one front-runner from each camp and the two camps were broadly neck and neck that would have been an informative narrative.
If Trump withdraws before Super Tuesday *and *Cruz does poorly on ST we might just possibly be able to re-invigorate the RL/EL narrative. But what are the odds on that happening? And if that does come to pass, a simple Cruz v Rubio mano a mano narrative serves just as well.
All else equal, the media prefers a person-to-person struggle over an ideological one. People magazine sells much better than does The Atlantic or The New Republic.
Most states look similar to national polling until the candidates drop millions in ads there. That’s why Clinton is beating Sanders in every state by a wide margin, except the next state they are about to vote in. And why almost every Republican race features Trump in front with Cruz and Rubio vying for 2nd and 3rd. The actual results will differ.