NO. No no no…
Simple orbital mechanics - anything “fired” into an orbit will return to where it was launched from on the next pass. If you launch it horizontal in a spot with no air and then move the gun out of the way, it will zoom past just grazing the spot where it “took off” from, next pass.
A horizontal launch means tangent to the earth’s surface, meaning this is the “low point” or perigee in the orbit. How high the apogee is depends on the velocity. If you fire at any other angle, it’s as if the shell is coming from a lower perigee deep in the earth.
By “fired” from a gun, assume you mean given an initial speed and direction. Unless that speed exceeds escape velocity, the object will swing around the central mass(earth), then return to where it came from.
The details - yes, air drag will eventually slow the satellite so it drops lower. Yes, in an Earth-moon system, the moon will perturb the orbit somewhat; the closer it gets to the moon, the bigger the effect. Even the sun, Jupiter and other planets will hav a tiny effect. The variations in density of the earth itself affect the regularity of the orbit somewhat. These are mostly secondary, minor effects.
Also, the earth rotates at about 24 hours per cycle. So the starting point will have moved if the shell comes back before or after 24 hours have passed, and the grazing point will be different.
This is why most spacecraft have a final “orbital insertion maneuver”. Once they reach orbital height and are close to orbital velocity, they give a roughly horizontal burst to change the direction so their orbit path does not take them back where they started. Of course, the rockets are boosting all the way up, and slowly tilting over so the trajectory is more horizontal than vertical once they are out of the main atmosphere.
However, even at low orbital heights there is some air drag; Skylab lasted what, about 10 years? Mir about 20, with occasional boosts. Surface area vs weight is relevant. Apparently too, solar activity will heat up the upper atmosphere, expanding it upward to increase density and resistance; which is why Skylab came down faster than anticipated, being relatively light for its cross section area.