I made this a new topic after searching various sources as best as I could. I’m not discussing the math, that’s been done to death. It’s simple:
Has anyone gone through archives of the show and compiled the actual results? It would be even more interesting if the results were shown for before and after Marylin’s article.
You don’t actually get to switch on Let’s Make a Deal (at least not for the Big Deal). The original question never actually mentions Monty Hall, it just proposes a theoretical game show.
And there was never any rule that Monty had to offer a switch (when they were possible) so there’s no way to gather meaningful statistics.
Yup, that’s obviously critical. If he knowns where the car is and he’s not constrained to act in a specified way every time, then it’s no longer a probabilistic question. Auric Goldfinger’s perspective is more relevant:
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.
Guess I should have watched TV more…