Another Monty Hall thread

Little Nemo - What exactly are you trying to tell us? That changing the wording slightly or having different assumptions can necessitate an entirely different solution? Yes, of course, 100% agreement. Now where exactly do you desire to go with this? If you’re talking about a literal analogue to the Let’s Make a Deal hosted by Monty Hall, well, we have a problem there as 1. it’s not on anymore, and 2. like any other long-running game show, it had a number of format changes.

Or do you just love abstract theoretical brainstorming? Cool. Fun is fun. Not my thing at all. If that’s what this thread is about, I’ll just quietly excuse myself, but it would’ve been nice to know going in.

Chronos - Geez, is this a No True Scotsman thing now? :weary: The original version I remember seeing was exactly as I described it, and as it’s the simplest one (I also saw it presented that way in an issue of Games magazine, BTW), I’m inclined to hold to it. Of course, that does not in any way preclude the possibility of variants, and in fact for a problem that is so simple I’d expect many of them. Much like I’d expect a substantial majority of knights and knaves puzzles to be trickier than “The stranger mumbles something incoherently. You ask what he said, and he responds ‘I said that I’m a knave’. Is he a knight or a knave?” But the idea that there’s only one Monty Hall or three doors or whatever problem, and the one I presented isn’t it…no. That’s a junk argument, and if I need to accept those terms before entering one of these discussions, forget it.

As for “Cecil Adams”… :angry: Good gods… :man_facepalming: You are aware that we have actual information about the man named Mark Twain, correct? Check it out, yo! You are aware that there’s a difference between going by an invented name (I never once doubted the existence of Pee Wee Herman, Hulk Hogan, Ice-T, Prince Poppycock, or The Micro Machine Man, among many others) and being this eternally mysterious, invisible figure which we know zippo about but nonetheless must treat with the utmost deference? “The smartest man in the world”, when there is literally no evidence whatsoever of a single word of that phrase? And the way he (if “he” is even the right word) turned the whole three-doors problem into a colossal harrumphing ego clash against Marylin Vos Savant killed whatever tiny grain of respect I may have had for him. You are asking me to kiss the boots of a literal invisible space fairy. Screw that forever. You couldn’t pay me to lower myself to that level.

Okay! Lowering the bar! What is the exact wording of the Monty Hall/3 doors problem? Once we get that nailed down, I think this thread will go a lot more smoothly. :grin:

No, not at all. I’ll be honest; I don’t see how you got from my OP to where you’re at.

Let me try again:

There’s an abstract probability problem called the Monty Hall problem.

There was an actual television show called Let’s Make a Deal that featured a guy named Monty Hall. There were events on the show that resembled the situation in the Monty Hall problem (hence the name).

I was wondering if anyone had studied the real world show and collected any data on how the statistics of the real world show differed from the probabilities in the ideal problem and what factors may have accounted for those differences.