And we now know Trump’s response.
“I will go down as a President, and I will take the rest of the country with me.”
Not in the House. GOP caucus assignment rules for committees tend to push earlier retirements and more turnover. Once someone has been chair for six years they have to hand the committee leadership role off to someone else. That’s pushed higher turnover in the House since it was implemented as Reps see their political power diminishing if they choose to stay on and be a committee backbencher. Democrats dangle the prospect of committee leadership out much later because of their rules where seniority dominates. A Democratic Rep has to wait a long time to get committee leadership and can keep it indefinitely.
Which is one of the many problems with just looking at numbers and trying to draw a big picture message without looking into the details of each and every retirement. 2018 was six years of GOP majority in the House. There would still have been a number of prominent GOP Reps that retired before that cycle if Trump was at 90% approval and they were expecting to win a supermajority. Looking for a deeper message out of those types of retirements isn’t all that helpful. It’s only really useful to look at the numbers of people that don’t have an obvious underlying reason to retire.
If we look back Pre-Trump when emotions were running a little lower there’s the example of John Kasich. He spent 18 years total in the House. The GOP changed the committee assignment rules while he was there. That got him the chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee after only 12 years in Congress. After six years in the role he retired and left politics for a decade. Compare that with the current Democratic chair Richard Neal. Neal only got the ranking member position in 2017 with 28 years of seniority. Neal is able to hold the chair or ranking minority member position indefinitely. Nobody was looking at Kasich’s decision in 2000 as sending a broader message about the political environment. It was simply a normal decision for Republicans in the House.
…aaaaand now that the attempt to derail this thread appears to have run its course is there anyone with a serious response to my question?
IOW, assuming Abrams doesn’t run is there another Georgia Democrat who would be as strong as she would likely be in the general?
Abrams lost the gubernatorial race by less than 50,000 votes, out of some four million cast.
That’s less than two percent, in an election overseen by her opponent, who refused to resign from his position as Secretary of State, as is the norm. By a black woman. In a Deep South state that hasn’t had a Democratic governor in this century, and hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide office in about a decade. She’s much less of a “failed candidate” than President Lost-The-Popular-Vote-By-Five-Million.
As to Kolak of Twilo’s question, I don’t know of any Georgia Dem who has the name recognition or fundraising power of Abrams. Maybe Stacey Evans, who gave Abrams a good run in the Democratic primary. She managed to get elected to the Georgia House as a Democrat, but from a mostly-red Cobb County suburban district. Unfortunately for her, her name is a disadvantage, as it sometimes caused her to be confused with Abrams.
I suspect that Kemp will be pragmatic enough to appoint Karen Handel to fill out Isakson’s term, if only to get ahead of the issue of white women’s votes. Jack Kingston is another possibility.
As for Democratic challengers in 2020, I’d be surprised if John Barrow and Jason Carter weren’t on the ballot. My dream candidate* would be Sally Yates, but I’d be surprised if she WERE to run.
*I’d be happy to be the woman who votes for the woman who got fired for telling DJT no.
No more comments about who is or should be embarrassed.
Take it to The BBQ Pit.
[ /Moderating ]
nm
Not good news that the poor fellow has serious health issues, but good news that there will be two GA Senate seats in play in 2020. I think GA is a lot more D-friendly than AL or MS or SC. It isn’t to say that these will not be uphill battles, but these are not lost causes either. If Stacey Abrams could almost pull off a victory here in a race ran by her opponent in a non-presidential year, it seems to me that Ds could pick up at least one seat with the right candidates and if Biden (he’s going to get the nomination) carries the state.
Today, Illinois 15th District Rep. John Shimkus (R) announced he won’t seek reelection for a 13th term in Congress. Of course he wants to spend more time with his family. Too bad his three children are now adults.
Keep in mind that Shimkus was reelected in 2018 with 70% of the vote. Maybe he really is just tired out and wants to go home.
I have wondered why so many Republicans have decided to hang it up when it’s not at all clear that they’d lose their seats. My WAG is that they feel constrained and that being a member of Congress, particularly as a member of Trump’s party, doesn’t give them the same sense of personal satisfaction that it once did. They’re no longer Republican members of congress; they’re members of a cult, and they know it and don’t care for it. They can still have access to power as lobbyists, and maybe it’s better for them to quit while they haven’t made too many enemies.
Yeah, that isn’t a competitive district and it’s no fun being in the minority in the House.
I think it’s more that it just sucks being in the minority in the House and they can make more money in the private sector rather than voting NO all the time. Plus, most should surely know that Trump won by a miracle and miracles don’t often recur. Being in the minority in the House as a minority party with a Democratic President doesn’t sound like fun.
More GOP politicians bowing out: George Sensebrenner (R-WI) calls it quits after 41 years in the House.
:smack:
Jim not George.
A pretty safe GOP seat with a Cook’s Partisan Index of R+13. He’s been considered a middle of the road rank and file Republican who usually voted with his party.
Does someone more heavily playing the Trump line become the nominee for that seat?
Does any decent D try to make a go for it despite its long shot status?
Jimmy Carter, but I really doubt he’d be interested…