I have a modest theory, which I will be glad to elaborate on some time, that Wordle is a kind of scam, in that it’s all luck, pure luck, given a working brain and an ability to follow three very simple rules. No skill, or broad vocabulary, or linguistic ability required: everyone averages about a 4 on Wordle eventually.
To test this thesis out, I’d like to propose an experiment: try NOT to guess the word of the day. That is see how far you can extend a streak of 5 consecutive gray boxes, meaning zero correct letters guessed. If you do get a green or yellow box, try to keep it to all gray boxes from there on in.
I’m guessing that you will also average a 4 this way.
This probably isn’t a perfect experiment, since you actually can do things that make it harder: guessing conjugated verb forms or plural nouns, for example, since I’ve heard Wordle doesn’t use many of those, or opting for a very obscure word when you’ve got simpler, more common words to use, since I’ve heard that Wordle does prefer common words. But still, try NOT to guess the word. I’m betting that will be much harder to do than you suspect. Even if you’re able to average higher than a 4, I’ll bet you do get the word in six tries most of the time.
And even if you’re too lazy to do that, you can confirm my thesis more intuitively: you know that you go nuts with joy when you get it in 2, and you’re pleased to get it in 3, which happens much more frequently than 2. Right?
OK, you’re nervous if it takes you 5 moves, and every so often, not too often, you take six moves to get it. Evey once in a blue moon, you don’t get it even in 6.
But the plurality of times you get it in 4 moves.
Well, if this happens to everyone who plays more than 30 or 40 times, what does that tell you?
Imagine no one had ever invented dice. Just did not exist, Then I invent a pair of dice, and tell you that if you get a 7 in your first six moves you win.
You’re usually going to get a 7 in your first few moves, right? Very rarely will you go six moves and not get a 7 once. Sometimes you’re going to get a 7 on your first or second try.
When you do it in 1 or 2 tries, does that make you good at rolling dice? Are you special? Is this a skill?
Of course not. But it might seem like one if you don’t understand how dice and odds work.
That’s wordle, with letters and words instead of cubes with dots on them. Everybody “wins”! And Everybody gets the same exact results over time. Only a small sample size allows people to feel they have any control over how the game turns out.
You’ve left out important details of your thesis in your OP, like whether you’re talking hard mode or not. You elaborated on that one, but what of the rest? What are the three very simple rules you have in mind? When you mention a streak of all grays, can I nevertheless use letters that I’ve used before?
If what you’re saying is that if I deduce the maximum amount from the information given, using hard mode, then it is hard to go too wrong even with “bad” guesses, then sure. It’s obviously impossible to make 5 guesses without getting some letter right. If I can make a guess at all, then eventually I’ll be coerced into solving the puzzle. Of course that’s not guaranteed because I might not be able to think of a word that fits the pattern (not just green/yellow boxes, but excluding impossible gray letters).
I’d like to hear what your three simple rules are.
In my case, when I’m having trouble it’s usually because I can’t think of ANY words that match the information I have at that point. Or once in a while because there are too many possibilities left.
I SAID I was leaving out some important details when I wrote that I had a theory that I would be glad to elaborate on because I wanted to see if someone would cooperate in testing out my anti-Wordle game for me. If you disagree so strongly that it could be right, why not tell me how you’ve done–look up your game history, and see if you don’t rank highest in 4s, next in 3s and 5s, and if your median score isn’t a 4?
It’s kind of hard to argue that “Yes, I’ve gotten more 4s than anything, and a smattering of 2s and 6s, but maybe I’m the exception.” My theory is that EVERYONE gets it in 4 moves the most. yet EVERYONE thinks it is a game of skill. That’s some serious scamming going on.
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I defy anyone to provide evidence that my new Wordle theory is incorrect: everyone averages a 4.0 score.
There are a few, I think minor, qualifications:
“everyone” means everyone who plays in hard mode, and follows some common-sense rules, which hardly need spelling out, but in case they do they include: choosing starter words that don’t repeat letters, and that don’t use very uncommon letters (Q, X, J, Z), and don’t re-use letters in the same spot that you’ve been told they don’t appear in, etc.
“averages” means you’ve played enough games to draw a meaningful average. This is actually a lot of games, maybe as many as 100. You might well not average a 4.0 if you play under 10 games, but this is just “small sample size” doing its damage.
“4.0” means very close to 4.0, i.e., 3.8, 4.1, etc. Obviously a perfect 4.0 will get thrown off briefly by a 3 or 5 on your next game, and it might take a few more tries to get back to 4.0, but that’s where everyone ends up.
Now, there might be dopes with very small vocabularies who disprove my theory, and it might be possible, for someone deliberately trying, to average 4.5 or 3.5, but even a deliberate tryer would have very few arrows in his quiver. After all, my qualification #1 would not allow him or her to use “arrow” or “quive” in his or her starter word (double-letter in “arrow” and non-word, and Q, in “quive”). But even dopes or very smart people will end up at 4.0, given a large enough sample size of games.
Go prove me wrong.
What, for example, is your average over your last 30 or 40 Wordle games?
The point for me isn’t getting it in a certain number of turns. Its the pleasure that comes from taking what I know and building out possibilities.
I like words, rather a lot. I like thinking about words and letters and how they fit together. And I like the random reinforcement pleasure of watching tiles flip colors.
You’re talking to people who play Wordle and therefore enjoy word games and have at least a good vocabulary. Lots of the population, trying to play hard mode, would simply get stuck and not be able to think of another word.
I know some Spanish, and when I tried to play Spanish Wordle, I got nowhere.
Not only “talking to” but I am one of those people. But some word games take some skill, and I think many people are under the impression that Wordle is one of them.
If you can play it and try NOT to win, as I have described, and the result is pretty much the same, as I contend, then isn’t it almost purely a game of luck, disguised as a game of skill?
So, what you’re saying is that there is a certain level of mastery, relatively quickly and easily reached, beyond which it is impossible to improve; and that, once people reach this level, they can’t really get better than they used to be or than other players who have also reached this level.
Is that a fair summary?
(If it is, I think you may have muddied the waters by calling it a “scam” or saying that it’s all pure luck.)