Given that there seemed to be a lot of feeling in the GOP that Trump should step down a while back, can I hold out for faithless electors voting for Clinton, and Trump losing after all?
No. Trump won, and now possesses an incredible amount of momentum. But especially not for Clinton. If there was going to be a faithless elector plot, which there won’t be, it would be to parachute in someone like Mitt Romney and let the House choose him.
He’s probably going to have 306 electoral votes, so any plot would have to be pretty large. Even if someone was dumb enough to try, it would probably fizzle like the attempt by a few Republican delegates to get a “conscience vote” at the convention.
Bumped.
SCOTUS has unanimously ruled that states may punish or replace faithless electors: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-electoral-college-faithless-electors/2020/07/06/cf88f706-bf8f-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html
Given that it’s quite possible Biden pulls out a win with exactly 270 electoral votes, this question seems to have become very important again. I can imagine the influence hundreds of millions of dollars, or threats, might have in such a scenario, let alone quirks of a single individual’s conscience or lack thereof.
Hadn’t thought of that lately, but yes, I suspect you may be right. The pressure imposed, or inducements offered, could be considerable.
AIUI, the punishments for being faithless are incredibly mild in the broader scheme of things - just some jail time and a fine. Whereas if some Trump stealth elector somehow managed to get selected onto a Biden slate many months ago (against all the odds; they’re carefully vetted) and now has the chance to go down as one of history’s most consequential individuals - perhaps one of the Top 20 most consequential people of the century - by switching from Biden to Trump and making it a 269-269 tie…I don’t think the threat of legal punishment would dissuade him or her much.
Plus, legal punishment is the least of his/her concerns. In this intense, bitter, stakes-are-sky-high environment, such a faithless elector would face the real threat of revenge assassination.
Biden is going to win at least 279 EV which puts it beyond any reasonable number of faithless electors. 2 or 3 could happen but not 10.
With PA, GA, and NV all increasing the margins, the Ds will have a minimum of 295 EVs. More likely is 306. Breathe again.
I’d love to see him break 300!