I’m not sure I agree with a lot of your post but I think this part is especially wrong. Assuming the house passes a clean CR prior to Dec 11th. It would be suicide for the R senate to not approve it. There are two elections hanging in the balance in Georgia and if the Rs just say fuck you that will hurt them bad in a state heavily dependant on the military (#8 in military spending). So the question of who’s got who by the balls will come down to who is willing to be seen as obstructionist.
Is it possible Pelosi acted in this way to help with Biden’s election? The above arguments are pretty compelling she might have made a better deal.
Oh, the GOP won’t just say fuck-you. They’ll say they want [insert poison pill here] as part of the funding extension, or only offer to extend it through January 6, or some other gimmick like that. They’ll do just enough to make the coverage of why the funding hasn’t been extended look all both-sidesy, so most voters won’t have a clear idea of who’s to blame. They’ve been playing these games for a long time, and they play them well.
As long as Mitch McConnell doesn’t need anything from the Dems, there won’t be a vote between now and January 20, and after that only if the Dems win both GA Senate seats on January 5.