The jackpot has grown to $150 million yet in the last three drawings the mega ball has been the same number - 41. What are the odds of that?
1/50 x 1/50 x 1/50
Based on 50 Mega numbers. If more or less change the denominator to the actual number.
Statistically? The same as every time.
You can look at all the numers statistics on the Megamilions game website:
http://www.megamillions.com/winningpicks/game_analysis.asp
41 is a top picked mega ball with 7 picks but 4 has 9 draws. 4 mega balls have only been drawn once.
I don’t think so. I’m talking about 3 in a row. Obviously, I’m no expert in statistics but 3 in a row has to have greater odds than a single draw.
Also, I believe there are 54 balls.
OK, then the a priori odds of drawing any given powerball number three times in a row are 1/54 x 1/54 x 1/54. Which is considerably lower than simply drawing it twice in a row (1/54th as likely), but not impossible.
What brownie55 meant is to be careful of making the common error of thinking that this indicates that drawing #4 is any more likely than 1/54 to produce this same powerball number, any more than flipping heads three times in a row on a fair coin indicates that the fourth flip is more than 50% likely to come up heads.
Of course you could argue the reverse, that as the sequence of repeats gets longer, the more likely this is empirical evidence that it is NOT a random system (a “fair coin”)… But repeat results in a random draw are eventually going to happen if you draw enough times, and these things are drawn multiple times a week. In fact, if no two back to back drawings EVER had the same powerball number, that would be equally evidence of a non-random system. And there is a lot vested in making sure the lottery is as close to a truly random system as possible.
Going with what you said.
1 in 157464 1/54 * 1/54 * 1/54
The odds of getting 41,41,41 are exactly the same as of getting 14,14,14 or 5,5,5 or 23,18,47 or any other combination.
But it has the same odds as any other combination of 3 balls, e.g. 41 41 41 has the same likelihood as 21 36 45.
I’ll buy that answer.
That being said, I doubt that there have been 157,464 Mega Millions drawings which means that some long odds have been tested.
And, to further disagree with ASAKMOTSD, those odds are a lot longer than 1 in 54.
Well, given that it doesn’t matter (does it really?) if it’s 41,41,41 or 3,3,3; I submit that it’s actually 1/54 * 1/54, or only 1 in 2916.
The chances of getting 41 three times are one in 54[sup]3[/sup]. The chance of getting any number three times is one in 54[sup]2[/sup]. (You have one chance in one of getting some number on the first draw. After that, it gets harder.)
Tris
No shit