According to Nate Silver (whose team continues to be the gold standard of election forecasts, IMO), the data has suggested that the Democrats’ chances at the Senate has decreased by a small amount, and their chances at the House (which were already strong) have increased a small amount, over the last couple of months.
Half of those offices are elected in 2018.
That’s not your opinion. It’s a stone cold fact until someone comes along and takes his crown.
The Dems will probably take the House, but not by much. They will lose a seat in the Senate. I think the most interesting races will be the governorships and state houses. Winning those or even having some momentum would breathe life back into the party. The 2020 campaign is going to present major challenges for Democrats, though - at least as things stand now. But if economic and national security conditions deteriorate, then all bets are off.
That’s been the trend all along, the House is definitely in play for the Democrats, but the Senate was always a long shot. What will be interesting to see is if the trend accelerates of the GOP losing white women voters, especially in the suburbs.
Indeed, it will be interesting to see how Trump’s base holds up and more so what the strategy of Republicans will be going forward. If the Democrats somehow perform better than expected and stun Republicans in this election, then it proves that Trump is mortal and the Republicans will have to decide if they are still the part of Trump. But if it’s just a usual midterm in which the party in power loses some seats, I don’t think Trump sweats much. He will still have the Senate, which is more important in terms of enabling him than the House.
I think it’s more a case that Trump would decide whether he’s still a Republican. Trump is not a committed Republican. He’s committed to his own success. If signing Democratic legislation and claiming credit for it gets him wins, he’ll do it. Which would actually make things a lot easier for Republicans in terms of making a break from Trumpism.
He’s committed to conservative extremists to the bitter end and there’s nothing that’s going to change that. He and his family’s criminal enterprise are in the cross-hairs of a massive criminal investigation. He needs to use the extremists to corrupt the investigation and to keep power indefinitely. The extremists need him to gain unprecedented levels of access to the government and policy making. It’s a marriage made in hell.
What causes your pessimism? In Texas, the early voting totals already surpassed the total vote from the 2014 midterms, and there’s still the rest of the week for early voting and Election Day itself. It looks like it’s going to surpass the vote for the 2012 presidential election as well, and come close to 2016. I understand this is true in several other states’ early voting totals. Of course, one basis for pessimism on these numbers is that Republican voters are also turning up, but I don’t think you have to worry that the Dems are going to sit this one out.
While they may not be part of the “official platform”, we’ve seen Dems, who have said that, eight Democrats co-sponsored aa bill to abolish-ICE and replace it but when the house GOP members said they’d bring that bill up for a vote, the Democrats call it a stunt.
Gun confiscation,”In a USA Today op-ed entitled “Ban assault weapons, buy them back, go after resisters,” Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., argued Thursday that prior proposals to ban assault weapons “would leave millions of assault weapons in our communities for decades to come.” And “criminally prosecute any who choose to defy [the buyback] by keeping their weapons.”
On LGBTQ issues, what most people remember is the whole bathroom issue, prop 8 (California gay marriage) etc where if you disagreed with them you were threatened, fired etc. And while, again, not part of the “official” platform, more Democrats supported it and vocal for it.
So while the platform might not say we’re for open borders, gun confiscation, etc many elected Democrats and those Democrats who are in power have said just that.
It’s an easy line of attack because it sounds right, but abolishing ICE is not a call for open borders. The agency is only 15 years old and you didn’t have open borders in 2002.
To be able to hold you to your prognostications - please define what “not by much” means to you.
Sure, but I can show you Repubs running that support the KKK. Does that mean the GOp stands behind the KKK?
All parties have extremists.
And I can show you dem’s who were KKK members., who voted against the civil right act etc. The point is the leadership isn’t currently condemning people who ARE saying we need to get rid if ICE, when the GOP said OK we’ll vote on it, it’s suddenly it’s grandstanding. How about the vote on a resolution to express support for ICE 133 Democrats voted “present” not yea or nae, just I’m here but I’m not voting, 18 supported it. Why not take a stand?
Doing so would have upset their supporters. They’re beholden to a rabid mob.
Brave Sir Democrat ran away.
Bravely ran away away.
When principle reared it’s ugly head,
He bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Sir Democrat turned about
And gallantly he chickened out.
Swiftly taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat.
Bravest of the brave, Sir Democrat!
Cite.
Regards,
Shodan
Yes, back before the parties switched polarity. :rolleyes:
So, what, are you saying it wasn’t grandstanding?
This isn’t complicated, so don’t make out like it is.
ICE is doing some rotten shit.
Many Democrats want to tell the truth: ICE is broken, due to the rotten shit it’s pulling.
Republicans are going to lie their goddamned asses about it: when folks point out how broken ICE is, Republicans are going to say O NOES DEMOCRATS WANT TO ALLOW ALL THE BROWN PEOPLE IN ITS TEH END OF TEH WORLD VOTE RED and so on and so on.
Many other Democrats want to win the election more than they want to speak out about this particular truth, so they’re going to work quietly behind the scenes to fix what’s broken about ICE.
Republicans see this as a lost opportunity to lie about Democrats, so they brought it up to a vote, hoping to get a chance to tell a lie about Democrats.
Show me where I’m wrong.
Oh, for fuck’s sake. The biggest movers and shakers in the Republican party of the last decade named themselves after a literal mob. Don’t even go there with this bullshit talking point.
ICE is the only government agency that pulls rotten shit? WOuldn’t the answer be a reform bill, as the GOP did with the IRS in the 90s, restricting the rotten shit?
Except that the IRS* wasn’t* pulling rotten shit, the reform bill was 99% grandstanding by the GOP.