It isn’t important to me personally and I have no intention of doing it. But when people are looking for understanding, and you accuse them of looking for loopholes, that’s insulting.
Imagine if this were the dialogue:
*Me: Don’t talk on the phone.
You: Why not?
Me: You’re leaving your germs on it, and the next person to use the phone could become infected by them.
You: But what if it’s my own personal phone and no one else ever touches it?
Me: Isn’t it better to be safe than sorry? Is it really so much to ask to be overly cautious at this point? This is a matter of life and death. You’re just looking for loopholes!*
Because I feel like that’s how this thread has been going.
If I tell you to stop using the phone, or stop eating cashews, or stop singing in the shower, and you ask me “Why?” you’re not going to be satisfied with an answer like “Because you shouldn’t take any risks,” or an accusation that you’re looking for loopholes.
Because human beings are built to need time with other human beings? I mean, our family are introverts and either on the spectrum or close enough that we find screens easier to deal with than people, but most people aren’t like that.
(Manda JO, thank you for fighting the good fight on actually trying to have reasonable discussion about this that doesn’t just devolve into “But why take any risk at all??”)
I am not being frantic here or anything. I said above that I’m sure going for a walk or something is fine. I think unless someone has psychological problems, just don’t frigging socialize in person for a couple weeks. Yes, it f this goes another month we can maybe break out the tape measures. For now, just avoid it.
I think you are absolutely fooling yourself if you think we will be any less locked down in 4 weeks. I don’t feel confident we will have even peaked in 4 weeks. I do think there are some convincing arguments in this thread that even a 10 ft al fresco happy hour is a bad idea–it normalizes socializing, people will not follow the rules, 10 ft for several hours might be enough for virus to spread. But just “socializing bad!” is not an appropriate way to approach this. This is not a tornado, where we need to just throw ourselves in the basement and wait it out. This is a monsoon. We have to figure out how to live like this–and be prepared to repeat it.
As monstro alluded to, it’s so easy to think of the risks we take as calculated and reasonable, but to decide that the risks others take are impetuous and immature. It’s different when it’s us. This cognitive bias seems pretty deeply woven into the human consciousness. We are all of us earnestly, sincerely trying to figure out how to live in this brave new world, and if people treat “can I talk to my neighbor 10 ft from me?” like “Can I snort coke off a hooker’s ass at a spring break party?”, that conversation can’t happen.
Until we actually know how easily this spreads, RGHT NOW, “socializing is bad” should be how you approach it. I’ve been self isolated for 2 weeks already. I’m not fooling myself, I know I will be in for more.
If this follows the trajectory of the 1918 flu pandemic, the worst wave will be 8-12 weeks, and there’s a good chance of a second wave once we let our guard down. Hopefully a vaccine and herd immunity will kick in toward the end of this year, but this could be an on/off problem for the next 12-18 months.
I wonder if the reason there aren’t generally more direct “do not go outside for any reason other than necessity until this is over” orders is that politicians are afraid it’ll do more harm than good by provoking people to rebel?
I’m about to blow your mind: you can exercise in your house.
If someone is in real mental distress and/or suicidal then of fucking course that gets an exemption. Or do you imagine they’re also recommending people having heart attacks should maintain social distance?
No, activities that increase your chance of catching the virus are bad. Jesus, do you want to yell people who are sitting outside the window of their parent’s retirement homes, talking on the phone to them? Is that bad, because sure, it’s impossible to see how that could actually lead to contagion, but what the hell, why would you risk it when you can stay home and face time?
Look, I agree with you that 10 ft happy hour is a bad idea. But I don’t think it’s wrong to wonder where the line is.
…this isn’t about Thelma, or Stranger. Or even me. I’ve provided advice and the provenance of that advice. Isn’t that enough?
I provided a link to the Spinoff which is a treasure trove of the science that has been written specifically for laypeople like you and me. If you really want to understand then I would encourage you start there. This is a good place to start:
For the sake of clarity this isn’t an accurate summation of what happened.
steronz’s question was short, curt, and invited a binary answer. ThelmaLou’s short and curt response both mirrored the tone of the question **and **literally answered the question that was asked. ThelmaLou also provided an alternative happy hour suggestion. From those two sentences you responded:
You make two claims here. The second, that ThelmaLou yelled at steronz like they were an idiot, is an extraordinary reach. IMHO ThelmaLou yelled for emphasis: and I think the fact that she followed that up with a helpful suggestion is strong evidence of that.
The first though, the claim that “this is incredibly low risk” is a quantifiable claim that you haven’t attempted to defend. You admit you don’t know the science. So on what basis do you make this claim?
Stranger asked you to quantify your claim.
This was your response:
The bolded was never the question. At this point you both deflected quantifying the assertion you made **and **recontextualized both the original question and subsequent responses. Nobody (to this point) had accused steronz of being socially irresponsible. But from this point onwards this became the position people had to defend.
In the next month hundreds of thousands of Americans are going to die. Those people dying is going to lead to some really bad places. You are in a race against time to get this under control and you are losing the race.
But this isn’t AID’s. This is Corvid-19, it is spreading worldwide at an exponential rate, there is a significant lag between getting infected and becoming symptomatic. We know how this is spreading and we know that effective social distancing is the most effective way to stop the spread.
If it helps don’t imagine your neighbour has Corvid-19. Imagine that **you **have Corvid-19. Then this doesn’t become all about stigmatizing someone else for having the infection out of irrational fear: its all about you “doing your part” in not spreading the infection to your neighbour and family.
And if in doubt remember the unofficial motto that we’ve adopted down here: “Be Kind.”
There are many different ways you can show your neighbours you love and care and support them without having to pull up your chair and having a happy hour. Choosing not to do so isn’t the moral equivalent of keeping HIV+ kids out of school. Its what the medical experts, scientists and our government reccomend. And they aren’t recommending irrational fear: they are recommending you “be kind.”
I don’t think anyone is expecting this to be a “once and done.” But if I were living in America I would be preparing for the worse.
Refer to the Spinoff links to see the strategy that New Zealand has adopted. We are fortunate we are an island nation: so when we closed the borders a few weeks ago we really closed the borders. It is impossible to get in, even if you are a New Zealand citizen, without being ordered to either self isolate, or in the case of many, get quarantined in a hotel. Everybody else in the country has been ordered to self-isolate in our “bubbles.” The goal of the next four weeks is to break the chains of community transmission. To do that we all remain isolated, but people who have recently traveled, who have come into contact with people diagnosed with Covid-19, and those that have symptoms are tested and contacts traced. If after four weeks the metrics indicate that things are under control then we drop to either alert level 3 or 2 (depending on what the metrics say) and the country begins to open up again. The borders remain closed, if the metrics start to change we go back into level 4 and the country shuts down again.
Because we are effectively a closed system there is a very good chance this will work here. But it will only work if almost everybody complies and stays home and that we all do it at the same time.
This won’t work in America. America right now is in chaos. There is no leadership. Constant and intentional misinformation and propaganda. If one state follows the rules and another state doesn’t, if one county decides to self-isolate but the counties surrounding it don’t: then this won’t break the chain of community transmission. It will probably keep those that choose to self-isolate relatively safe: and I would encourage all that can to do so. But every action you take outside of your bubble will be inherently riskier in the United States. I honestly don’t know how you lot are going to get through this. There is no plan. No national strategy. Its entirely adhoc and reactive, and as a result hundreds of thousands (at the very least) are going to die.
And this is why people need to be able to ask questions and get reasoned answers, not just a “no no no”. Look, I was convinced by the later discussion in the thread that steronz’s idea was a bad one. But I really, really disagree that it was inviting a binary response. We shouldn’t be doing what “feels right” here. That leads to essential oils. We need to try to figure out what’s really going on in this mess of a situation. We need to be able to talk about it. The discussion should not be shut down. The virus should not be made into a monster or an evil spirit. That is all I am saying.
I am not mad about anyone wondering what the “real” line is. But we have to accept that we might not know that for awhile. I’m saying “no no no” because it’s foolish to say anything else when we don’t know know know.
Honestly? It seems like the summation of those you are discussing with is, “the socially responsible thing to do is, do not go outside or interact in person with anyone for any reason whatsoever other than necessity for the entirety of the lockdown.” Why they aren’t just saying that directly to you, I have no idea.
Probably because everyone here is going to the grocery store, gas station, going out on walks, and talking to neighbors at a safe distance. Can’t very well come out and say “don’t take those risks” if they themselves are taking them.
Thats why, while I appreciate the information from Banquet Bear (and I really do, thank you. That question has not been addressed in that way by authorities here in Ohio), operating as though we’re all infected has limited use as advise. I understand why they’re saying that, better to err on the side of people being too cautious, but just today I went on a walk, went to the grocery store, talked to friends across the street, and picked up a carryout dinner. All of those things have been deemed either necessary or acceptable, but I absolutely 1000% would have done none of those things if I knew I was a carrier. So even the advice from The Spinoff is contradictory.
But whatever, we need to drop this thread. I’m not going to do the happy hour so we can all move on.