Of course Trump didn’t mastermind any of this, because Trump has never in his life masterminded anything. And of course Putin has wanted to re-conquer the old Soviet empire for decades.
And so, of course, Putin would take advantage of the opportunity to make one-sided “deals” with an idiot in order to make that easier. For that not to have happened would be insane cheap-thriller fodder.
So what “deals” did Putin make with Trump?
Trump was quite anti NATO which would be favourable to Poutine IMHO.
Literally every U.S. president since Ronald Reagan has expressed similar sentiments. Because it in fact would be great if the U.S. and Russia could be friends. It seemed naïve to me when President Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul. It seemed naïve to me when President Obama had Secretary of State Clinton present the Russian Foreign Minister with a literal reset button. But literally every U.S. administration since 1990 has wanted to bring Russia onside as a constructive member of the international community.
I don’t believe that for a moment. There’s just no evidence for any sort of kompromat. Again, President Trump was personally obsequious towards Vladimir Putin to a truly disturbing degree, but the actual policies of his administration really weren’t all that favorable to Russia. That’s the opposite of what I’d expect if Putin were pulling Trump’s strings.
I think that’s what was going on. Donald Trump is a bully and strongman wannabe, who admires strongmen. He aspires to have the sort of power in the U.S. that Putin does in Russia, and for that matter that Kim Jong-un does in North Korea. He personally gets along with dictators because that’s who he wants to be, and imagines himself as - strong, decisive, in control.
There’s no secret conspiracy. It’s just a narcissistic, egotistical man-child, acting out of pure ego and id, running a chaotic administration. The policies of the Trump administration weren’t being determined by Putin. They were being determined by Trump’s fickle whim, driven by petty ego and subject to influence by whichever advisor had talked to him last and successfully massaged his ego.
Again, rhetorically, President Trump was anti-NATO, and pulled some troops out of Europe, but he also successfully pushed other NATO countries to increase their defense spending and NATO commitments. His concern seemed to be very clearly and explicitly that NATO was a raw deal for the U.S., not that it was threatening Russia’s interests. He did damage U.S. relationships with our NATO allies, and weakened the alliance, which Putin would probably broadly see as being in his interests, but President Trump’s actual actions seem to me to be a entirely consistent with his decades-long track record of wanting to “win” every deal he’s a part of and his pathological fear of being “taken” by a “bad” deal.
Which is, by the way, another issue with the idea of some sort of secret deal between Trump and Putin. That’s completely antithetical to Trump’s entire life, where he makes very public deals, which he insists on “winning”. I’m really having trouble imagining him making some sort of deal with Vladimir Putin and then refraining from bragging about how it was the bigliest deal any U.S. President has ever made with Russia.
“Tare down this wall”?
I’m sure Putin was capable of seeing Trump was an idiot. There was no way Putin was going to form a plan that needed Trump to do something.
Putin’s plan was to help Trump get elected and then just sit back. Every year Trump was in office made America weaker and therefore less of a problem for Russia. He was undoubtedly hoping to get eight years of American decline out of Trump but Trump was too incompetent to win or steal a second term.
Ronald Reagan, addressing the UN in 1987:
Cannot swords be turned to plowshares? Can we and all nations not live in peace? In our obsession with antagonisms of the moment, we often forget how much unites all the members of humanity. Perhaps we need some outside, universal threat to make us recognize this common bond. I occasionally think how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.
Two years earlier, at the 1985 Geneva Summit between Reagan and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, according to Gorbachev:
"From the fireside house, President Reagan suddenly said to me, ‘What would you do if the United States were suddenly attacked by someone from outer space? Would you help us?’
“I said, ‘No doubt about it.’”
“He said, ‘We too.’”
“So that’s interesting,” Gorbachev said
And Reagan and Gorbachev famously came to consider each other friends.
And heck, you can go all the way back to FDR, who genuinely seemed to think that the U.S. and the USSR could cooperate to peacefully manage the international system after World War II.
Simply wanting to have a productive, friendly relationship between the U.S. and Russia isn’t anything particularly noteworthy. The problem with President Trump wasn’t that he wanted friendly relations between Russia and the U.S., it was the terms on which he wanted those friendly relations.
Previous U.S. presidents thought there was a real chance that Russia might pursue genuine reforms at home and peacefully integrate into the U.S.-led post-Cold War order. President Trump was exceptional in that far from wanting political and economic reforms in Russia, he seemed to admire Putin’s approach, and seemed to want friendlier relations on Putin’s terms.
Again, though, I think that’s down to Trump’s authoritarian personality, not an indication of some sort of secret deal for world domination or Russian kompromat.
I don’t think Kompromat plays much of a role at this point. Trump supporters have shown themselves utterly impervious to ANYTHING that would cause them to doubt their Dear Leader. So what if the Russians have footage of Trump delivering Cleveland Steamers onto an 11-year old? Fake News, it was a long time ago, it was just someone who looked like him that the evil Democrats paid, blah blah blah.
I think Trumps relationship with Putin was a sales move. He recognized Putins ego and felt the best way to calm the Russians down was to treat him as an equal and give him some incentive to be more cooperative on world issues. I see the logic behind that but don’t believe it could have ever worked.
Leon Panetta: "When I look into his eyes, I see “KGB, KGB, KGB.”
Thank you.
I’ve wondered about this and wouldn’t put it past him. I could imagine him telling Putin to go ahead and invade Ukraine if Trump does not gain a second term, to make life harder for Biden (or whomever).
But Putin waited an entire year after Biden began his term, even longer from the election. It’d look a lot more suspicious if he had made his move much faster.
Mostly I think this is one of those questionable but unlikely theories.
And Putin would care about a “go ahead” from Trump…why?
This “theory” is more than “questionable but unlikely.” Or less than, depending on how you look at it. There’s not even a coherent “theory” here. There’s just a vague allegation that Trump and Putin had some sort of nebulous “deal”, which somehow makes Trump responsible for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
Donald Trump might welcome a Russian invasion of Ukraine because it makes life harder for President Biden, and makes him look bad. And Donald Trump is probably petty enough that he wouldn’t even care if actually benefits him, as long as it hurts Biden.
It’s possible - even though there’s nothing that even looks like evidence for it - that President Trump might have encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine in the event that Trump were to fail to win re-election. But putting aside how far-fetched that is - as others have pointed out it would require Trump to actually contemplate losing and making contingency plans for it, which seems drastically out of character for him - why would Putin care? What difference would it make to Putin? What role would Trump’s wishes make in Putin’s decision-making?
Posting a link without a comment isn’t really a meaningful reply.
Here’s what Lt. Col. Vindman said, though:
Putin could have done this at any time. The reason he acted now is not coincidental. Putin started building up his forces in the spring of 2021. This was weeks after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Putin, like Trump, smells vulnerability and exploits it. Vladimir Putin perceived that the United States was distracted and vulnerable. He’s been testing our resolve. He’s been getting positive signals in that regard.
There is blood on the Republican Party’s hands. They were partially responsible for what is happening in Ukraine. Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump were basically as popular on Russian TV as they are here in this country. They’re constantly being played there. What is the impression given? The United States is divided, and there’s an opportunity there. So these folks now own it.
Is this what you’re trying to reference? If so, please note that Lt. Col. Vindman never even hints at any sort of “deal” between Trump and Putin. He just avers that Trump’s actions made the U.S. appear distracted and vulnerable to Putin - which I agree with. I think Donald Trump bears some moral culpability for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But the idea that “Trump had a hand in the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, as a result of some sort of explicit deal with Putin, as the OP posits, is just wrong.
Look, I think Donald Trump was a horrific President. I think he gravely weakened the United States at home and abroad. But baseless speculation and conspiracy theorizing is a dangerous distraction from the actual bad things that he actually did.
I think that’s questionable.
Roosevelt was notoriously secretive. He never let anyone know exactly what he was thinking or planning. But he did sometimes make comments that gave hints.
And several people have said that in non-public situations, Roosevelt said things that indicated his pro-Soviet policy was only a wartime measure to keep the Soviets in the war against Germany and get them to join the war against Japan. But once the war was over, Stalin would be surprised at how quickly American policy towards the Soviet Union would change.
Sure, it’s questionable. We don’t have any way of knowing what would have been. My impression from what I’ve read is that close advisors thought that FDR genuinely thought he could manage “Uncle Joe” after the war, and that the U.S. and USSR could have a constructive relationship in managing the post-war order. But I could be wrong, of course.
But regardless, I think my larger point still holds, that merely saying “Wouldn’t it be great if we could be friends with Russia” isn’t a particularly sinister comment, and that multiple U.S. Presidents have expressed similar sentiments.
It’s obvious Trump was undermining NATO and Ukraine; we all saw that.
What’s less obvious is if Trump, personally, wanted Ukraine invaded or if Putin even told him that might be his intention. I doubt it. Trump is stupid, and can be manipulated through flattery and strength, which is I think what Putin did. Trump was a useful idiot.
I strongly doubt it as well.
Trump would have been trumpeting that all over the airwaves. He could not have helped himself.