Apple Car - finally more than a rumor

Partnering with an existing car-maker (and one that is above average in terms of build quality even if they aren’t known as a high status marquee) makes a ton of sense. This is something that Tesla, in the infinite pool of arrogance that is Elon Musk, refused to do, and it has cost them both in terms of quality and controlling costs by having an existing network within automotive OEM suppliers. I don’t know what their actual strategy and demographic target is other than the widely varying speculation online, but from a purely manufacturing standpoint they’ve shown foresight in not trying to set up everything internally in an industry of which they have no experience.

There is actually a lot of innovation to be had in automotive design aside from self-piloted autonomous vehicles (which I think are still on close order of a couple of decades out); the automotive industry is generally very conservative and there are a lot of potential safety, performance, and passenger comfort improvements that could be introduced by a fresh entrant paired with an existing manufacturer looking to upgrade their stature.

Stranger

Sure, don’t think anyone’s arguing against that. I think the discussion is if Apple would make an electric car in the mold of the Porsche Taycan, the Tesla Model S/X or the Chevy Volt. Tesla charges an extra $10K for the full autonomous feature so no doubt that’s a premium. Whatever the market ends up being for truly autonomous cars, history would suggest that Apple would be priced at the top of it.

But, if the plan is to make fleet vehicles that entire discussion changes.

The “icky last-gen” argument kid of falls apart when you realize that a large percentage of iPhone sales in any given quarter are for those icky previous gen models. If people are buying iPhones for status symbols, that makes them exactly like people buying Android Galaxys or any other product, so if you’re trying to make a distinction, there isn’t much difference. And taken in aggregate, the status symbol you’re talking about says “Hey, look at me! I’m just like 50% of everyone else!” Meh.

Or, maybe not:

Hyundai Motor Co. and its affiliate Kia Motors Corp. said that they aren’t in discussions with Apple Inc. on cooperating to develop a self-driving electric vehicle, following reports and speculation that they were working with the tech giant.

The South Korean carmakers have been talking with multiple companies about autonomous electric car development, but no decision has been made, they said in regulatory filings Monday.

It says ‘my income is 40% higher than yours’:

they can probably find a Chinese company to make the car since just about everything is made there now

Even the more reliable rumor sites can get it wrong, and Apple DID have some talks with car companies, but looks like this is back into “I’ll believe it when I see it” category.

The whole robotaxi thing never smelled right to me. When a story like this breaks and then gets denied a couple days later, I’m left wondering what the hell is going on. Either the journalist is shitty at their job and is running an unconfirmed story, which is entirely possible with the deteriorating standards in news, or they got confirmation but the company reneged on it. If the latter, that implies that the company wanted the “false” story to get out there as a trial balloon to gauge the public and investor reactions and then denied it once they had the signals they wanted. If so, I don’t know if you can take the denial at face value any more than the original story.

What a mess.

Most likely Apple wanted more control than Kia wanted to give them.

If Apple really wanted control, it could just buy an existing car company and redirect its production to self-driving EVs. But that would be expensive. This proposal of giving $3.6 billion to Kia was relatively cheap (even if additional money will be needed later).

Apple passed up the chance to buy Tesla. This was a few years ago while they were having problems getting Model 3 production up and running.

Well, let me modify my statement to say that Apple could buy any car company except for Tesla, which is far too expensive and vastly overvalued.

The reporting I’ve seen indicates that it’s Hyundai-Kia that is the blushing bride, not Apple. Supposedly Hyundai-Kia is unhappy with the possibility of being turned into a contract manufacturer for Apple. I can see how this would be a lot of grief with few accolades and could imperil their own brand’s perception in the market.

Probably a bad comparison, but HTC fell of the map as an independent smartphone manufacturer pretty quickly after they agreed to partner with Google to make the Nexus line.

It’s important to note that Hyundai-Kia is the one making the loudest protestations to refute the original story, Apple is pretty tight lipped on the situation (as is typical).

Another article on the subject:

Apple partnering with a carmaker makes a ton of sense for Apple. It makes much less sense for the carmaker, as we’re now seeing. Apple is obviously going to want the vehicle branded as theirs–I don’t think you’ll see the word “Foxconn” on a single Apple product at the moment. So why would a carmaker with an established brand want to be relegated into a mere assembler? Unless they were so desperate to fill their factories that they were willing to sell production to just anyone–in which case I’m not sure Apple would want to build their car in said factories.

There is an alternative of course: companies dedicated to automotive contract manufacturing, such as Magna Steyr. Magna Steyr has a good reputation and their entire purpose in life is to be like a Foxconn for cars. However, they seem to charge for the privilege, and furthermore do not seem to occupy quite the same niche, given that they develop their own drivetrains. They also have fairly limited capacity, though maybe Apple would be willing to put down a few billion for factory expansions.

I guess we’ll see how it all plays out, but so far I don’t see a willing partner that really ticks all the boxes as far as Apple is concerned.

Yeah, that seems pretty apparent. The idea of an Apple Car is long standing, going back to Jobs, but I’ve never been clear on what market Apple was trying to capture. The iPod and iPhone were always intended as mass market devices with a premium of features, build quality, and innovative styling and interface at a price point that made it accessible to people with a certain threshold of disposable income, but a car is fundamentally a utility appliance, and while there is certainly a market for premium luxury and performance cars, good margins are predicated upon an economy of scale (hence, why it makes sense to partner with an existing company to leverage off of their existing supplier base and production facilities, and why so many performance car makers are perpetually on the brink of bankruptcy). But that isn’t of any benefit to an automotive maker unless it is substantially increasing their profits over what they could produce and sell independently.

I suspect Jobs saw that there was some opportunity to revolutionize the transportation market, and that could potentially be a hundred billion dollar return if done on a large scale, but the scope of making a new vehicle, and especially one with radical new modes of operation is vastly beyond making a new phone or tablet, even one that breaks the mold. Even a better autonomous electric car is fundamentally a commodity item unless it is actually doing something unique like running errands for you after it drops you at work.

Stranger

I guess it’s vaguely possible that Apple will somehow surprise us with the functionality of their vehicle, the way that the iPhone was surprising. The iPhone was more than the sum of its parts; there were smartphones before it, and networked phones, and ones with a touch display, etc.–but somehow the iPhone just put things together in a seamless way and ushered in the modern era of smartphones.

I don’t see how a car could accomplish that, but I didn’t see how the iPhone or iPad could, either. So I’m a little hesitant to say it’s impossible. But Apple had had their share of misses, too, such as their multiple trash-bin-shaped computers.

I remain in a wait-and-see state. Apple could just buy an automaker, but that goes against their usual strategy, which is to make capital investments in manufacturing but not to own the manufacturing itself. Plus, most automakers are not as cheap as their share price might imply; they tend to have immense debt. I don’t really see this happening, either. An Apple Car may just be one of those things constantly on the horizon but never quite making sense. Especially if the idea was that EV and automation would be a step-change in vehicle technology. True ten years ago; not so true now given the competition.

Frankly, I think Apple is being stupid here. Say what you will about Jobs, but I don’t think he’d have been half as bumbling and milquetoast about this. Maybe getting into the car biz is a good idea or a bad one, maybe Apple has some innovation up it’s sleeve here, or maybe they’d just make a mint by trading on their brand loyalty. But I have to think Jobs wouldn’t be sitting on a mountain of cash the size of Olympus while trying to dangle their feet in the water by courting tepid manufacturing partners who would essentially become frenemies. He’d be trying to will it into existence and he’d have Apple going it alone if needed.

Yeah, building cars is hard and starting up a supply chain from scratch is intimidating. But Tesla figured it out and, from the looks of things, they are way better positioned than they would have been had they wasted a bunch of time and energy partnering. Apple has the capital and they would have brilliant engineers and managers beating down their doors to work for them. They should just buy or build a fucking factory and start making cars if they really think this is a big opportunity. Time to quit fucking around, it’s making them look like fools.

It’s not much of a surprise that Nissan and Hyundai don’t want to jumpstart the company that may well be eating their lunch in 10 years. Sure, some shortsighted accountant might look at the big influx of cash and short term profits from Apple, some executive might see that juicy bump in stock prices and think such a partnership is a good idea…but eventually the long money is going to raise their hand and ask them what the fuck they are thinking.