Apple is in trouble--but it's flawed thinking to say that's due to Jobs' passing

[Aeschines]

I actually have to synch with a program to get my MP3s off of iTunes, but I am not a big MP3 listener (I prefer CD or vinyl, “real” music formats).

[RaftPeople]

@Aeschines

1, I’m not sure, my phone never feels too slow.

So even though the iPhone 5S outperforms competitors in independent tests, substantially, you wouldn’t consider that to be “better” for that one attribute?

That would seem to be the equivalent of someone that was biased towards Apple saying “I never really had any problem with their maps”.

[DSeid]

@Voyager

The issue at hand is whether they can do it without Jobs. So far, we haven’t seen much.

Well the op seemed to be that Jobs was given too much of the credit and that they would be “in trouble” (defined as a less than double digit growth rate apparently) with or without him.

It seems that most here agree with the first part. Jobs was a great spokesman, salesman extraordinaire. That was something of significance. But the issues that may or may not face the company in the future would likely be the same with or without him.

And few here seem to debate that ongoing double digit growth is less than likely.

How unlikely there may be some disagreement about. Can they execute a smart TV/entertainment system (which most expect to be their next best hope for a home run, winning both on product and a piece of the content profits … hell I had thought that was what iPhone was going to be before it was announced!) wih same impact that they executed their entry into the MP3, the cell phone, and the tablet markets? Not “likely” but I wouldn’t bet against it either. Less than 50/50 but not too much less and if they do it then double digit growth rates do return.

How much less than double digit growth equals “in trouble” is also open. And there the issue is if they can maintain even good solid single digit growth longer term. The points are well made that new killer products and driving rapidly enlarging new markets are what allow high profit margins. Without that they are in a commoditizing industry with shrinking profit margins. For many consumers gadgets are a fashion accessory, a style statement, more than a tool, and fashions can shift quickly.

Those risks are factored into the stock price right now.

[Jophiel]

@RaftPeople

So even though the iPhone 5S outperforms competitors in independent tests, substantially, you wouldn’t consider that to be “better” for that one attribute?

That would seem to be the equivalent of someone that was biased towards Apple saying “I never really had any problem with their maps”.

I don’t know if performing a benchmark in 420 milliseconds versus 900 milliseconds really compares to maps not taking you where you need to go. Might compare to the “bad” map taking you to a spot five feet away from your destination. Yeah, it’s “off” but not in a way that the average user would notice or would impact them.

[Tibby]

Going forward, going backward is the direction to go. “Retro” will become increasingly important in the future. Horses love apples, right? Mark my words (I’ll wait while you find a marker…), Apple will re-invent the world of communication with iPoneyExpress, and game-change transportation with the iHorse&Buggy. Buy equine and harness stock; you won’t be sorry.

Who knows, Apple may even retro-resurrect their future CEO and R&D Director with iJobs and iWoz.

[Bijou_Drains]

The problem is not 100% their stuff, it’s the attitude of the fans that turns off a lot of people like me.

Has anyone ever seen a bigger cult than Apple users? They put Hare Krishnas, Moonies, Scientologists, etc. to shame.

BTW, not all Apple users are members of the cult, but a big chunk of them are way too into Apple stuff.

I know a few people who would eat dog crap on a stick if it had an Apple logo on it.

[Justin_Bailey]

@Bijou_Drains

The problem is not 100% their stuff, it’s the attitude of the fans that turns off a lot of people like me.

BTW, not all Apple users are members of the cult, but a big chunk of them are way too into Apple stuff.

You probably had a point in 1997, but in 2014 this argument is just a red herring. Apple is a huge corporation with multiple product lines and the Kool-Aid-drinking loonies amount to a few percentage points of Apple users, at best. The iPhone is a perfectly good phone with a wealth of available apps because it is so popular. The iPod Touch literally stands alone as the only non-phone smart device in its size. And Apple’s laptops (while out of my price range) are said to be quite rugged. Not everyone that owns one does so because of the logo.

[Alba]

@Aeschines

1, I’m not sure, my phone never feels too slow. 2, When I picked up the iPhone 5, it felt too light, as though it would just be crushed in my pocket. The Nokia Lumia 900 is relatively a heavy phone, but its weight has never bothered me at all. 3, Is cool, good new feature.

I agree with point 1 and semi with point 2 (still a lot better than a plastic Galaxy), but 3 was already around before the first iPhone.

@Aeschines

I was sick of the Apple Calendar app for various reasons. Windows Phone will easily synch with Google Calendar–it receives the info through the air, you don’t even have to plug it into your computer or anything. That is just a much better experience than having to do the iTunes synch.

Apple Calendar also syncs with Google Calendar and also Exchange which you don’t need iTunes for. For everything else you want to sync you can use iCloud. For mp3s you can use WiFi too, but you do need iTunes.

[DSeid]

@DSeid

As to the healthcare industry … the electronic health record industry is much further developed and integrated than you think. The big gorilla there is EPIC. The system works fairly well and is currently more seriously rolling out “Care Everywhere” where records can be shared between all systems that are on EPIC that are signing up. Healthcare organizations have invested heavily in these systems both in dollars and in time.

The company is privately held and over three years ago was valued at $2.7 billion … by now I suspect it would cost quite a bit more to purchase. But if they were going to try to enter healthcare buying it (and incrementally improving the interface) would be the way to go. I don’t see it.

@DSeid

If anything Google seems like a better match for the needs of the healthcare industry … mining the data to help manage populations is more and more key.

Bumping this thread to note that for both of these companies my doubts as to this direction may have been too great.

Apple meeting with the FDA at top levels over medical device rules, while Google has been working on contact lenses that monitor blood sugars.

Given the amount of work going on inside Apple, and the meetings with high-level government officials, it’s possible that Apple could be working on other gadgets beyond the smartwatch that focus on health care, which is a $1.6 trillion industry, according to the United States Census Bureau estimates. Apple’s iPhones and iPads have also supported applications used by medical professionals for several years.

The latest project from Google X is a smart contact lens, a tiny, flexible computer capable of monitoring glucose levels in tears. Researchers at Google are hopeful that one day this technology might be used to help diabetes patients better control their disease.

“I think the Google X device could be a huge game changer,” says Dr. John Buse, professor of medicine at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine. He’s also chairman of the National Diabetes Education Program for the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Yeah. The big deal is not going to be a glorified heart rate monitor.

And the devices are not what is valuable.

Collecting data in real time via devices networked into the health records without having people having to be in the office, identifying who needs what done sooner, doing it with greater efficiency, managing populations, identifying emerging trends … that data is worth lots. Managed and mined well it can deliver better health outcomes for lots less money.

Both the titans are attempting to develop the devices to collect the data, and while I think Google’s core compentencies are a better match for mining it I look forward to seeing the competition unfold. I do have to wonder afterall if AAPL is in talks with EPIC (again, the gorilla of the EMR space) … it would be huge.

[dropzone]

Of course, that means that doctors’ offices, clinics, and hospitals need to be completely computerized with hardware and software from sometime after 1964.* However, that they are not means they are an enormous, untapped market.

• • Not as big an exaggeration as one might hope, from what my medical friends say.

[bump]

@TimeWinder

They’re the largest tech and most successful tech company in the history of the world.

While Apple may be the highest valued tech company right now, I think Microsoft has a better track record over time in terms of valuation and profits.

That’s just it; Apple is the beneficiary of effectively having invented the last 3 “big things” in technology- MP3 players, smartphones and tablets. As a result, they’re on top, but they’d have to keep inventing successful new product categories to stay there, because their competitors are doing it better, faster or cheaper, and in most cases, the main thing Apple has going for them is the cachet of having Apple products, and the existing app base.

I don’t see them circling the bowl anytime soon, but I don’t see them staying on top either- they’re where Microsoft was in 1999- top of the world with nowhere to go but down.