eponymous,
I believe that you are still missing the point. The significance of the continuous distribution is NOT that blacks and whites would be expected to have the same distribution of effort. It is that even among athletes who have made it to the pro ranks there is not a uniform level of either raw talent or effort. And that one might expect that as one reaches higher levels of athletic achievement the level – on average – of both raw talent and effort will tend to be higher. And since accomplishment is based primarily on those two factors, what is lacking in one must be made up by the other. So that if you have two players who you have established to be equal in accomplishment (say both have scored 20 points and grabbed 10 rebounds per game over their lengthy careers), if one has more talent the other must have worked harder. And if you know that one has worked harder you can assume that the other has more natural talent.
The point is, again, that we are assuming that as you go down the ladder in terms of accomplishment, you will – again, on average – go down in terms of talent and effort. So that the average all star will have more talent than the average starter, and the average starter will have more talent than the average bench-sitter. And the average all star will have worked harder than the average starter, and the average starter will have worked harder than the average bench sitter. And so on.
So when you take the 100th best white guy and compare him to the 200th best black guy, you have gone a lot further down the ladder in terms of the talent distribution in the case of the black guy. You are drawing from a much lower percentile of the talent distribution. If that 200th best black guy is more talented, there must be some equalizer. If that equalizer is effort, it would follow that – on average – blacks further down the distribution have expended more effort than whites – this is how the two distributions became unbalanced in terms of talent producing accomplishment. From which it would follow that the average black NBA player has put in more effort than the average white player. If this is not the case, it calls the effort hypothesis into question.
I hope this is clear. If not I give up – it was really a minor point anyway and we’ve gone round long enough.
** Tars Tarkas**,
Mea culpa – I didn’t recall that lucwarm kept “insisting” that he had a proof, and as a test I did a search on the word proof and found it only in your posts. I missed your “prove” term. But even here he used it in the context of a prior term “know with a reasonable degree of certainty”. He would have to explain his position.
But for the record, I would agree that it is generally difficult to “prove” things in a scientific sense without direct evidence. The exemption would be a field which is so well understood that all other alternatives can actually be ruled out. I wouldn’t think that would prevail here. My position is not that a genetic factor can be “proved” by the weakness of the sociological argument, but rather that it becomes the likeliest known explanation. As such it makes no sense to demand direct proof or to speculate about blacks selling their soul to the dark lord or other such nonsense. These may be equal in terms of lack of “proof” but they are not about to become the likeliest explanation in any event.
In general, one of the common misconceptions that one encounters (a lot, on these boards) is that there exists one black-and-white standard of “proof” and that something is either proven or unproven. This is a fallacy - there are only varying degrees of certainty. Science may need to set certain standards to allow for uniformity of language and methodology, but there is no inherent cut-off point between proven and unproven. (I once had to explain to a guy on these boards that the 95% confidence interval commonly used in statistical testing is only a convention – actually the difference between 94.9% and 95% is minimal in terms of how much certainty we have).
I looked at your cites. Extremely weak. The first is merely an article about some guys lamenting the fact that blacks are into sports and not media ownership. Nothing. The third, about Julius Erving, has no apparent connection at all. The fourth is about an interesting and controversial topic – you might save the cite for another debate, but also has no connection here. The fifth is about fencing – I’ve repeatedly noted in previous posts that a sport that is not widely practiced can be dominated by a small subgroup that practices it without a genetic factor.
The second cite – the one you quoted from - is the only substantive one. But it doesn’t get you there. It makes the claim that black kids are twice as likely as white kids to think they will make a career as a professional athlete. This is a valid point in the context of the article ( a very good article, BTW) which is about the damage caused by false hope of an athletic career. But it does not suffice for your argument here. Because the fact is that for whatever reason – either genetic or otherwise – black kids are twice as likely as white kids to have a successful athletic career. So the fact that they are twice as likely to think they will could just as easily be nothing more than a reflection of this reality. The only meaningful study for your purposes would be one that normalizes for childhood athletic accomplishment.