http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1
This poll seems to indicate that because of the Affordable Care law, both Romney and Santorum are beating Obama among “swing voters” in “swing states.”
So, game over? Do we get a Republican in 2012 after all?
It’s February.
While the health care law as a concept remains unpopular, partly because Obama and the Democrats didn’t do enough to explain what it actually does, a lot of the individual components of the bill are popular. That’s been the case since it passed, and it’s also true that Mitt Romney is not in a good position to effectively attack the law because of the fact that it was modeled on a law he signed into law and enthusiastically supported until he felt it was no longer popular. In the meantime I think the economy continues to be the biggest issue for a lot of people, and it’s going to have more to do with swaying people’s votes than the health care law will.
Obviously I’m inviting discussion over the question whether this poll indicates a serious problem for Obama or not.
I think those polls are a little questionable. On health care only, I can see that Obamacare is still not popular, but I just have a hard time seeing that health care is going to be a top-tier issue this year. The economy, yes. The deficit, yes. Taxes, yes. Gas price, eh, maybe. Some kind of social/religious issue, yeah, good chance. The size of government? Yep. Health care? Not so much, because no Republican is going to have anything to say about healthcare other than repeal – none of the field has any new ideas on how to replace it that aren’t worse than Obamacare.
But back to the polls: it shows Santorum beating Obama among swing voters and nationwide. Let’s get friggin’ real: if Santorum is the candidate, Obama will probably get close to 400 EVs. Plus, a poll of polls shows the USA Today to be an outlier, with Obama beating Santorum nationally by an average of six points.
Same with the USA Today poll on Romney vs. Obama: it seems to be an outlier. The same poll of polls show Obama with a five point advantage, and clearing the magic 50% mark in about a third of those polls.
I’m not exactly sure the USA Today poll is even polling the same thing as those other polls. It sounds like they limited themselves to asking people in swing states, and then took…some sort of population weighted average maybe? Its hard to tell. In any case, whatever they’re doing seems to give a very different answer then other pollsters.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1
I haven’t looked into the specifics of how this poll was conducted, nor have I checked out 538’s site to see if Nate has any comment on this. There’s a claimed margin of error of 4% which makes the results somewhat meaningless.
Except to say this: what the fuckedy fuck?
I’ve already made my wife a promise that if Rick Santorum wins the Presidency this November, we will be leaving this country. I know it sounds cliche. I know everyone says that. But I’m 100% serious and I guarantee my wife will hold me to that promise. We’re gone. We’ll up and move.
I don’t want to leave. I have great plans for sticking around the US. But the alternative, living in a land where abortion and birth control are outlawed, prenatal testing eliminated, gay marriage is banned and gays actively, legally, persecuted, the idea that separation of church and state is a bad thing and that the majority of the population believes all this too…it’s too much to handle.
This poll may be completely inaccurate but it scares me beyond belief.
This poll has a lot of heads being scratched as it comes on the tail of several other reputable polls showing Obama well ahead. The past week (since the 20th) has shown (vs. Santorum):
Rasmussen: Obama +2
Politico: Obama +11
USA Today/Gallup: Santorum +3
AP/GfK: Obama +9
Quinnipac: Obama +3
Earlier Feb polls have Obama anywhere from +5 to +10. Opinions I’ve read have been that either Gallup’s numbers are statistical outliers or that their sample/method was wonky.
Obama vs. Romney is about the same except that Rasmussen has Romney +2.
Even if he’s elected, he won’t be able to do those things. He’ll be president, not emperor.
But yeah, that would still mightily suck if he won.
Beats me. There was another report yesterday from CNN that showed Obama with double digit leads over both Romney and Santorum.
At this point in the election process, I’m assuming you can pick and choose whatever polls prove your point. It’s hard to believe that Santorum has a shot though – like Palin, he’s appealing to the base, but, even more than Palin, will probably actively repel the uncommitted independents who, you know, occasionally like to have protected sex and aren’t enthusiastic about Christian dhimmitude.
I’ve merged Enderw24’s OP (and the two posts that came after it) into this thread because they’re all about the same USA Today poll.
Once again, if you want to get closer to the truth on such matters you can’t trust just one poll, but have to take a look at a very broad swath. For instance, I could link to this ABC poll, which shows the President with a healthy 53-45% approval in swing states, and overall has 10 point leads on the two GOP frontrunners, but I wouldn’t call that, by itself, definitive at all. Even this electoral map, which gives Obama a 227/181 electoral edge, would still be highly preliminary no matter whether you are heartened or horrified.
Lalalalala<—because the board insists that I’ve already posted a duplicate, even tho I haven’t… 
I guess Marley ninja’ed me when he merged the threads.
Not a lot of “What matters to you?” polling (maybe because everyone knows the answer) but CBS/NYT had one from Feb 13th.
Unemployment & Jobs: 44%
Healthcare: 8%
If things are moving with significant positive momentum on the economic front come November, healthcare won’t be an issue. If they’re not… healthcare won’t be an issue.
Yeah, that was another thing that surprised me in the article. My belief, and everything I’ve read, showed that the health care mandate was really quite popular across the political spectrum. So I had no idea where this idea that Obamacare would be Obama’s downfall. If anything, it’s something for him to campaign on!
The same poll shows Santorum winning the popular vote overall. It is to outliers what Ricky Williams is to famous potheads.
No one poll means anything. Only the trend lines taken from a multiple set of polls by different organizations offer any information, and even then extrapolating them out for months is a waste of time.
So, no, this does not indicate a serious problem for Obama.
At most, these polls are indicators to the campaigns about where and how the money should be spent. They have no meaning at all for ordinary people.
If he wanted to campaign on this issue I think they would have implemented the ACA before the election. I do think they will campaign on the idea of ACA without having to defend any of its inherent problems.
It’s strange how it became such an issue.
Were those that supported it earlier unaware of the fact that the funding for public healthcare would come from taxation? Were they ignorant of some other aspects of universal healthcare and they’re now better informed? Has there been a protracted propaganda battle against the notion of healthcare, where even nominal healthcare reform is seen as unconstitutional? Surely I’m missing something here…
It can be made into an issue, and that’s all you need.