Are the American people becoming more politically liberal?

Great Debates
21

If you look at voting trends and what legislation has actually passed in the last 15 years or so, I’d say that Americans are becoming more socially tolerant, which probably translates into a liberal shift. A good example would be gay rights. As much press as anti-SSM amendments get, the fact is gays have become much more accepted in society and more and more states are passing laws to allow some sort of civil unions or domestic partnerships.

We’re even seeing some states take tentative steps towards a universal healthcare plan (CA and MA come to mind). But on issues like taxes and the death penalty, I just don’t see any evidence of a liberal shift. We seem to have flirted with some liberal ideas in the 60s and 70s, but have retreaded from most of them. It wasn’t that long ago that we outlawed the death penalty (1972) and had a 70% tax bracket (1980). I can’t imagine us going back to those days.

22

For purposes of this debate, let’s assume support for government helping the needy, universal health care, higher minimum wage, etc., is “liberal.”

23

That’s socialism, a subset of liberalism. We’re fighting ignorance here right?

24

That retreat happened because of the rise of a well-organized mass-based conservative ideological movement, a story recounted in Right Nation, by John Micklethwaite and Adrian Wooldridge. And that movement, with its grass-roots organizations and its well-funded think tanks and media outlets, still exists and will not go away. But I predict it will find its public appeal gradually waning.

25

Sometimes. When it suits us.

26

Socialism? Is it? Are the European welfare states “socialist”? They’re rarely called so, except by right-wing total asshats.

27

You apparently live on a different planet than I do. Everyone I know considers many European nations socialist, whether right or left.

28

The same people who have been predicting the imminent and immediate collapse of social order in Sweden for about fifty years. Any minute now.

29

Most Western European nations either are or recently have been governed by parties who call themselves “socialist.”

30

I would say that there is a current shift towards more ‘liberal’ policies in some areas, but not in others.

But regardless of what’s going on today, I think trying to do a straight-line extrapolation into the future is folly. Countries often go through phases of liberalism, followed by phases of conservatism. France seems to be undergoing somewhat of a conservative transition right now. Look at Britain - from an almost socialist state it became quite conservative for a couple of decades, and now seems to be trending liberal again.

It may simply be that as the country starts adopting liberal policies, it gets to the point where taxes are too high, unions have too much power, government gets too controlling, and then the population rebels and starts electing conservatives to restore some sanity. Then if the country trends too conservative, people rebel against that and start electing liberals again. I don’t know why we need to believe that there is some long-term trend taking us to a liberal utopia. For those of us who believe that liberalism just leads to stagnation and an overly-controlling government, there’s no utopia in the end, and as things get worse the pendulum will swing back the other way.

Thinking about specific issues in the U.S., I’m not sure I’m seeing a big trend towards liberalism anyway. Sure, most people say they want a Democrat to win the White House next time around, but that could be simply a reaction to their dislike for the current crop of Republicans, not a desire to see widespread adoption of liberal policies.

Looking at specific issuss, I don’t see a big demand for a resurgence of the welfare state. Raising the minimum wage had a lot of support, but such things always have support when people think it won’t cost them anything. When unemployment is as low as it is, and average starting wages are already much higher than minimum wage, raising the minimum is little more than a feel-good policy.

Gun Control seems to be completely off the table - an area where Liberals utterly lost the battle. Not only are they not getting new controls put in place, but the old ones are being actively repealed. Concealed carry laws are still increasing. The ‘assault weapons ban’ is dead.

70’s style welfare is dead and not coming back. I’ll bet you that support for increasing welfare in general is in single digits.

The increasing support for liberal policies seems to me to be mainly in two areas: Health care and the environment. The Republicans are not on the same side as the public on those two issues, and that’s driving their popularity down.

31

I am not arguing against socialism. I am just saying that BrainGlutton is conflating socialism with liberalism.

32

Quite true, and the welfare state is largely the work of those parties – but that does not make them socialist countries. Their economies remain market economies. Some socialist parties would prefer something more radical, I’m sure, but even when they have a majority there are political limits on what they can do. The welfare state is the most they could achieve under the circumstances.

33

As for the Pew report, A question like, “Do you support government health care even if it means raising the debt” is not necessarily an accurate representation of whether people would like to personally pay more taxes to cover health care. For one thing, the average person may feel so disconnected from the consequences of a big debt that they don’t really care. For another, they may totally underestimate how much that would cost.

You would get a completely different set of responses if you asked, “Are you in favor of Proposition X, which would add $3,000 to your next year’s tax bill in return for government health coverage?”

See how many people agree to that.

34

Here’s one way in which there could be a major shift towards liberal proposals: If the tax system is so progressive that a large percentage of the country pays little or no tax at all. That’s a dangerous thing - if the people who vote are disconnected from the costs of what they are voting for, you get a tyranny of the majority imposing ever-increasing costs on a shrinking minority. Why wouldn’t 70% of the people vote for government health care if 90% of the tab was picked up by the other 30%?

This is another reason why a flatter tax system is a good idea. It creates more rational voting behaviour.

35

Would we be wrong to define “more rational voting behavior” as being that which is more in line with your own thinking?

36

I’d be down, it would lower my health insurance costs by $ 600.

37

Which may be all to the good. As a radical, I think there are root causes that need be addressed, I am impatient with tinkering and cosmetic adjustments. But I may very well be wrong, perhaps it* is * possible to fix and tinker with a capitalistic system and achieve the optimum democratic society. There is evidence that may be the case. At any rate, I am very skeptical of sudden and dramatic shifts, time and again, a “people’s revolution” has been sucker punched by idealogues and demagogues. “Meet the new boss”, etc.

A non-revolutionary radical. Shit, might as well be a Libertarian.

38

Yes, you would. I define ‘more rational’ as ‘making a decision based on both the costs and benefits of a program’. If voting for something brings a benefit but no personal cost, you have basically a market failure in voting - the same as when a company pollutes more than it should because it gains a benefit but its neighbors aborb the costs.

This isn’t exclusive to liberal policies. It includes voting behaviour such as a majority of non-smokers voting to restrict the rights of the minority of smokers, or a majority of family people voting to prevent gay people from marrying.

Any time someone can vote for something where the costs of the vote are absorbed by a third party, while the benefits accrue to the voters, you’re in dangerous territory.

39

We looked into the greedy eyed of conservatives and they made us ashamed. The lack of respect for laws and the smothering of those who disagree with them showed such an ugly side that a response had to come. Cruel exploitation and disdain for the less fortunate may not be the American way. we shall soon see. I hope American seek a way to make the living conditions better for all, not just the few.

40

You could argue that. It is certainly significant, however, that Pew asked substantially the same questions over a 20-year period and the responses changed over time, in a liberal direction.