Some of the ideas floating around in here seem very strange to me. For instance:
The Republicans are moving hard to the right. Is this a joke? The Republicans have been moving left for a long time. Republicans used to be for a flat tax. The ‘Gingrich Revolution’ Republicans wanted to abolish the Department of Education. Bush gave it its biggest funding increase in years.
When is the last time you heard a Republican say we should abolish the NEA? That used to be a standard theme. The religious right used to have 10x the influence it has now. Haven’t heard much about school vouchers lately, either.
The other screwy notion I don’t get is that The people are hopping mad about the economy.
This is NOT a particularly bad economy. By any standards other t han the recent peak of the Dot-com boom, this economy is just fine. 6.1% unemployment is relatively low by historical standards. Inflation is low, interest rates are low, Teh economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% ln the last quarter, and is predicted to be about 4.5% next year. If so, that will create considerable job pressure. If next years’s economy has a 5.8% unemployment rate, and 4.5% growth, the stock market will no doubt be well over 10,000 again. Those are pretty good numbers to run for re-election on.
And for national security, Bush has a natural advantage: If there are no major terrorist attacks in the U.S. by next year, he’s going to run on a platform of, “I have protected you.” If there IS an attack, that usually causes an upsurge in patriotism and anger that plays into Bush’s strengths.
Here’s Bush’s Achilles’ Heel: The deficit. This is the one issue the Democrats can legitimately hit him on. But the problem is, the Democrats are going to have to have an answer for it, and by then a lot of the tax deductions will have taken effect, and rescinding them will be seen as a tax hike. I’m not saying a tax hike is good or bad, but that it’s damned hard to win an election on the platform, “Vote for me, and I’ll raise your taxes.” The last person to try that was Walter Mondale, and that winning formula got him exactly one state.