“Worse?! How could it possibly be worse? Trumphova, Trumphova, Trumphova!”
In 2018 the average special election has moved 22 points in favor of the Democrats compared to Trump’s 2016 results. Cite.
It was not a factual error. I wrote the Trump’s approval ratings right now are approaching the highest point that they have been during his entire presidency, and that is factually correct. I didn’t argue that he couldn’t be defeated in 2020 or that they were higher than Obama’s or any other president’s approval ratings during his first term - you were the one who tried to move the goal posts in that regard. If we’re going to debate facts, then let’s stick the facts DSeid.
I disagree. Oh for a few supporters no doubt, possibly even a majority of those who are Trump’s hard floor of maybe 35%. But of the others who voted for him. I don’t think so.
I have my own ideas but I am more interested in what up_the_junction thinks they want, if it is not a great president.
As to doorhinge’s posts …
You want specific predictions? Sure.
For midterms we are going to see an out and out reversal of the usual midterm pattern in which typically Republicans and their leaners drop off less than do Democratic ones. Nationally I’m putting my marker at D+12 (last midterms was D+1).
For the next presidential cycle? I am assuming the GOP candidate is Trump here. White non-college educated turnout about 2012 levels of 55%, but no where near as much Trump by the same margin, instead of R+39, maybe R+20. College educated whites similarly at 2012’s 78% turnout but instead of going R+4 now solidly a +D … call it D+4 or 5. Black voters up from 2016’s 58 to 60% turnout, still less than Obama’s 2012 62 to 63%. Hispanic voters up from 2016’s 46 to 48%.
I am confident that I won’t be exactly right, but care to make a prediction of how far off I will be on each of them on in which direction?
asahi, that statement is simply factually incorrect unless you believe that staying pretty flat around 40ish for over two months is “approaching” 47 (his highest point actually 47.8). The fact is that his approval dropped pretty fast and has since then been pretty flat for over a year.
Your question is moot, as I would never ask one of these people that question. (But IF I did, I’d certainly phrase it in neutral language. If you’re going to insult my intelligence, at least try to be clever. :dubious:)
Oh, I’m sure one of them could come up with an answer. I seem to recall asking that question here but never got an answer.
FWIW, saying “Thump” instead of “Trump” is like having a giant piece of spinach between your teeth: it’s an aspect of your communication that both makes me vaguely embarrassed for you, and makes it hard to pay attention to anything else you’re saying. If you’re cool with that, then good on you. Me, I’d pick the spinach out.
The spinach is a statement. “I eat leafy greens!”
I subscribe to this view as well.
It wasn’t, or at least i don’t believe it was. First off, there’s no NY State Justice Department…just the Office of the Attorney General. And the warrant against Cohen wasn’t gotten by them, but by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, which is part of the federal justice system. The former US Attorney for the Southern District of NY was Preet Bharara, who was famously fired by Trump.
You mean, like, say, collusion? Please cite what part of Trump’s dealings are not possibly related to that. Real estate? Hmm…how many properties has he sold to those Russian plutocrats? Loans? How many did DeutscheBank or FBME Bank make to him? Possible payments for travel of underlings to meetings with Russians? Enlighten me.
The team found AN issue outside their purview, and did what they were supposed to do. No more, no less. It doesn’t mean they’re anywhere near finished investigating Trumpo the Clown’s financials.
I have exactly that feeling.
Let me know when Kyle Freeny and Andrew Weissmann quit Mueller’s team. You know, the financial and bribery experts, respectively.
I responded to the exact wording of your post. If that’s an insult to your intelligence, I don’t think my post is the problem. Feel free to have the last word on this as I won’t hijack the discussion any further.
Thanks for the correction. For some reason I thought this had become a state matter. I guess it could become a state matter at some point in the future, but you’re right-- it’s still a federal matter.
The polls show that the Democratic polling advantage seems to have slipped since the beginning of the year, so going back to the original post, it doesn’t look like we’re nearing any kind of tipping point, irrespective of however bad the legal situation seems to be for those who are in Trump’s circle.
You have had things that you have liked about the trump presidency, but I would assume that you would not call yourself a trump worshipper.
That’s an accurate assumption. I would not call myself a “Trump worshipper”.
FWIW, I took doorhinge’s “Hillary worshippers” comment to be a bit of rhetorical flair / hyperbole (I sincerely hope no one is actually worshipping HRC), the sort of casual slander against political opponents that is so common on the SDMB. Personally, I wouldn’t use the label.
Worshipper is a bit strong. But if there was an election tomorrow you’d have no trouble voting for him, right?
I wouldn’t describe it as “no trouble”. Who I voted for would depend heavily on who the other candidates were. I’ll say that it’s neither a foregone conclusion nor a foreclosed possibility.
Can you think of any Democratic candidates you would vote for over him?
Not off the top of my head, at least out of the ones currently being talked about. What are the odds of you guys nominating someone like Jim Matheson?
I have problems with a few of his past positions, but overall I would give him serious consideration. If he is willing to govern in accordance with the law, despite his religious convictions, there is a lot to like about him.
Problem areas:
- Rubber stamping military action (however, he has not been alone in this and one could hope for more scrutiny and prudence moving forward)
- Healthcare reform - it’s not entirely clear where he stands based on his past record. Presumably an election would clear this up.
- Abortion rights - again, this isn’t entirely clear. He is pro-life, but he has supported some legislation (such as embryonic stem cell research) that does not conform with the pro-life doctrine
-Marriage - he believes marriage is between a man and a woman only
Things to like (from my perspective):
- He’s a moderate -I would really like someone who can bridge gaps rather than further polarize people.
- He’s pro-regulation for Wall Street and against increasing the deficit without a plan - He voted against increasing the debt ceiling, so I’m not entirely sure he understands how things work, but he also voted for Dodd-Frank, and against budgets that were insufficiently balanced. He spoke out against allowing unchecked banks and Wall Street to ever again cause another Great Recession.
-He’s against the single standardized test for education - I’m liking him more and more.
There are many ways to think of tipping point, current polling only being one. Most are only definable in retrospect. Nixon’s tipping point, for example, was not when his polling cratered; that cratering followed the events that were his tipping point (and one can debate which exact event that was). It’s when the downward spiral to happen became fairly written in stone. I personally doubt we actually are at one, I think Trump will keep his solid floor and not get impeached nor resign. But the analysis MfM shared makes the best argument to date for an event that could in future retrospect be defined as the point which it tipped. If it plays out the way that analysis predicts it will be likely so declared by future historians.