It could happen, but I don’t see it. The computer experience is much more of a personal one then the TV experience, which means up close, and just for one person.
Well, the mouse becomes less important with touch screen monitors. They are expensive now, but the price will come down. Keyboards are ok, again with touch screens that becomes less of an issue. Speed-wise, keyboards rule, but people aren’t always about speed, but convenience. There are roll up keyboards now and laser light ones, and you have a point about voice systems.
I would agree with the personal use of a computer, but only for personal computing, which is a bit of a tautology. Teachers, families and the like all use computers for groups. Tivo’s, DVD players, etc.
I do think there is a difference between a personal computer (or personal computing device), and a home computer. I don’t think Home computers will be phased out or ever die, but I’m not sure they will be the same as a desktop PC. I do think we are already seeing a decrease in the number of desktop computers (laptops are replacing those), but I think in the next 10 years we will see a decrease in the number of laptops used by people as well. Whether that will be something like a mini-pc, PDA of some sort, or blackberry / blackjack type phones.
If remote connections require explicit permission from an input device on the remote computer, how are you going to do remote administration?
Epimetheus the problem I see with touch screens is fingerprints and dirt on the screen which is very visible and will lead to scratches, as well as the added vibration of touching the screen.
Usually when people present a computer presentation to a group, it is worked at on a personal level first, which would mean a personal sized screen, and full keyboard and mouse. The presentation is then optimized for the big screen, which usually can be run by a remote control device. At least that’s how it works now.
The shift from desktop to laptop I would say don’t not spell the death of the home computer, just the ability to take it outside the home when you desire. The reason for the shift seems to be increased laptop power & usability, decreased laptop price.
Ah, you misunderstand me. I’m not saying the home or desktop computer will die. I am saying the number of homes that have them will decrease. I am speaking of the dreams of PC manufacturers thinking every home will have a PC (or two or three). The “age of personal computers” sounds like something like that. I did say some people will use PC’s, the “mechanics” if you will. I just don’t think the average person will necessarily always have one.
As for touch-screens, they really are getting better. You can’t use todays limitations to look for future possibilities, because there are always breakthroughs, and what is a limitation today isn’t necessarily unworkable later.
For what it is worth, a hobby of mine is watching Tech trends and innovations. My personal feelings based on trends is that the PC will “die” and early death, and by that I mean that other more mobile computing devices will be used much more often by the average person.
Liken it to mainframes. They are still used, but there was no “age of mainfraimes” in which every household has a mainframe of their own. Desktop computers will probably be around a long time. Doesn’t mean every home will have one.
Well, I don’t consider laptops home computers. You can use em at home, but you can use em at Starbucks too, that doesn’t make em cafe computers. Laptops are, to me, a transitional state between home computers and mobile computing. A bit of each, but more mobile.
I guess if you count anything you use in your home as a “home computer” than you are right. “Home computers” will always be around.
Desktop computers on the other hand…
I guess by setting the permissions thing up beforehand. But the permissions thing would have to be set up by direct keyboard input to the computers involved. It’s a little combersome, admitted, and if you want to say I’m ignorant about the details, that will also be admitted.
To get around the firewall thing, you’d have to somehow lock the permissions to a particular physical machine, which would make remote administration much harder and less convenient, and I very much doubt it’d be any safer than the current arrangement.