This is something I have been thinking of, you may or may not have heard this before from other sorces.
I think the computer will evolve to the point where the enitre OS and all programs you have will be on a credit card size ‘chip’ (I’ll call it a card for now on). Some cards (depending on the model) will have pda capabilities and can be used directly, though in a limited way (like most pda’s). The card will also slip into your home computer (where you can backup your card) or for that matter any computer. By using your card, you get your computer, your desktop, your programs, just like at home.
I know the internet has the same capability more or less but I feel that the card method is more acceptable.
Maybe. It certainly sounds cool. The biggest problem is going to be cooling; even modern day laptops have problems keeping their insides cool. How would you cool a card?
Also - as individual chips get smaller, the trend has been to just keep packin’ 'em in to make more and more powerful computers. I think that trend will continue - people want more powerful computers.
There’s also the issue of different hardware. How would card A work with CD player X, Y, and Z? Different monitors/screen sizes? Different sound cards? If the answer is that the card has all that built in (ie, on board video, sound, etc.) then how do you upgrade when the new cool stuff comes out? Regardless of whether it’s built in, you can’t build in stuff like a CD reader.
Well, there is a problem with the computer on a card idea. It’s a great idea BUT there is a limit on how small they can make chips. Basically the problem is that if you keep making smaller chips sooner or later you hit a wall where quantum effects start happening. When quantum stuff starts happening all bets are off for normal chip architechture. They will have to come up with something totally new and at this point no one really has any viable ideas.
Slee
We’re 99% there, provided you don’t need a mountain of files.
Make something that will boot from a USB device such as a “keychain” flash memory drive. These things are as large as 1 GB, which is certainly enough to hold an OS and files.
Assuming the workstations are Intel-based. you’ll be able to use Windows, Linux, Unix or anything else that runs on the i386 hardware.
I thnk it’s more likely that you’ll see some form of ‘smart network’ technology that will use radio networks and encryption to provide access to your files no matter where you are or what machine you are on.
There are already prototypes of things like RF rings that you can wear, that allow your personal signature to be read by any computer you might be typing on.
In the near future, you’ll walk into a Starbucks, and your PDA will instantly connect to the internet (this is current technology). But also, on your PDA a ‘my computer’ icon will appear, and you’ll have full access to you home machine, your office computer, and any other computers that have been set to share with you. High speed networking and powerful encryption and authentication will make this feasible.
The same hardware could be used to provide a real ‘E-cash’ for everything. No longer will you have to carry a credit card, driver’s license, bank cards, and a zillion other pieces of personal ID and access to accounts. Stop to buy gas, and the nozzle will read your ID off your ring and charge your account. Buying things from stores will involve just grabbing something and walking out. The ID of the product and your personal ID will be recorded and you’ll be charged. Or perhaps, to prevent fraud you’ll go through a kind of revolving door that has a keypad for typing in a PIN.
But all this could be totally wrong. Advancement in the computer industry is chaotic. It’s changing rapidly, and no one really knows what the next killer apps will be. Just a few years ago people were convinced that the Internet would cause traditional stores to fade away. Didn’t happen.
The thing about a mass network solution would be that it takes a leap of faith in the new technology before people will trust it. The card method is more conventional. The data is with you, it is a physical thing you can hold. It can also be encrypted. Using a internet (even wireless) solution is not as tangable and not as secure.
As for the problem with different hardware in different computers, a possilbe solution would be a partial OS in the desktop computer that would allow a standardized interface for the card. i.e. the desktop would have the drivers installed for the holoprojector (or flat screen monitor) and use a standard interface for the card.
When direct access is needed (i.e. for games) the driver could be downloaded to the card.
As for heat disapation, I can’t think of a better form factor then a thin card. Heat sinks can be pressed onto both sides upon inserting the card.
People seem to trust web-based mail accounts. That’s a form of online data storage. It’s only a small step to storing all your personal files online and being able to access them from any terminal. Besides, cards can be lost or stolen.
For the card idea to work, certain OS companies will have to stop writing bloated software. The CPU is no problem and the memory might fit, but the disk, never. We’ve pretty much run out of ways to add features to CPUs anyway - the next generations are going to have multiple CPUs on a chip, to run multiple threads.
I think network based computing is much more likely. That’s the way we do things where I work already. My ID badge is a smart card, and I can slide it into any thin client anywhere in the company and get my session, just where I left it. This means I can work from anywhere in the company as if it were my desk. These things are small, quiet, and cheap, and best of all, if one breaks, you swap another one in, and you lose absolutely nothing.
Riiiiiiiight. Remember the plans for the home PCs that were little more than a monitor and a few input devices, and all your programs and files would be stored on the web? Great idea, because you’d be able to go anywhere, and the machine you logged into would be just like the machine you had at home. Except for one small thing: How many people have legal copies of all the software that they use? All the plans I saw for such a system involved folks paying a monthly fee for the various programs on their machines. Unless you get internet access bundled with any software program you could possibly want for only slightly more a month than what you’re paying now, I just can’t see it being a viable product. I know I won’t have one.
I think this has changed over the past few years. You don’t need to buy many pieces of software - the OS is pre-installed on almost all new computers and includes a full set of Internet tools (browser, e-mail, etc). An office suite is often bundled with the system too. What else does an average home user need?
Actually I don’t - have there been such serious efforts? To be successful, think it needs to have comparable functionality to Microsoft Office and be able to take advantage of broadband connections.
And it doesn’t have to replace the current model of software resale - it could be an optional service for specific uses, accessible from any computer. Besides web-based e-mail we already have online photo sharing/storage. I think there’s also an online backup service for PDAs. As for security, most users seem to be comfortable with mail order sites storing their purchase history and personal information including credit card numbers.
It’s not so much what they need as it is what they want. Lot’s of folks have software on their systems that they didn’t need, but they wanted, and some of them have even paid for it.
Sun or Oracle (or maybe both) were working on this, but the idea’s been stalled for some time now. And it’s not the security issues that I think will turn people off, it’s the fact that they’ll have to give up their free software.
Well they already have these . I love it, whenever I go to the emergency room I never have to fill anything out. And as I am an asthmatic it’s benefit is huge. Plus I was recently handed one of these , and thought that was pretty cool. A minidisc businesscard…
Remember the plans for the home PCs that were little more than a monitor and a few input devices, and all your programs and files would be stored on the web?
Actually I don’t - have there been such serious efforts? To be successful, think it needs to have comparable functionality to Microsoft Office and be able to take advantage of broadband connections.
I don’t know about using it for home users, but there’s a totally serious and totally successful system called Citrix that we make extensive use of at work. The applications are housed on a server farm, and users’ PCs become little more than a “thin client” as the clever Citrix software transmits only keypresses, mouse moves and screen changes (rather than perpetual 100% screen re-draws 60 times a second). Businesses love it as it saves metric buttloads of money - money not spent on individual “seat” licenses and on being able to use simpler and cheaper desktop PCs. Something like Word runs just the same on a 500-MHz PC as it does on a new 2.4 GHz PC. It also works though dial-up connections as well as braodband just fine.
They started talking about it as early as 1998. And for businesses and schools, I think it makes a lot of sense. But for the home user?:dubious: I’m sure everyone of us has some piece of software that they don’t legitimately own. Under the “Internet PC” system, all that goes out the window. Good for the companies that write software, bad for the folks who pirate software for whatever reason. Additionally, I can imagine that if your ISP was, for example, Microsoft, they’d want you to use all Microsoft products and would probably go so far as making it impossible for you to use something else. They’ve done it before, after all. Not to mention hackers would have a field day with the average yutz’s computer. It’s an interesting concept, and perhaps one day someone will be able to impliment it successfully for the home market, but I doubt it.