I’m also getting very tired of smarmy Europeans and American inner-city dwellers to use this as another opportunity to launch into a boring attack on the ‘American lifestyle’ and the suburbs.
Understand this: Americans are NOT going to give up the advantage of all that land and crowd themselves like sardines into cities to save energy. Not going to happen. Stop whinging about it. Europe is what it is because it’s small and crowded. Europeans are not morally superior because they live in small homes and travel on mass transit - they do so because market conditions have pushed them in that direction. There’s less space, so everyone crowds together. WHen people crowd together, anything that takes up space, like a garage or wide suburban roads, has a higher cost. Anything that takes advantage of the crowding, like mass transit, is more desirable. The market adapts.
The U.S. and Canada are blessed with abundant land. We like large spaces and room to live in. As a result, our society has adapted and built an infrastructure that matches our lifestyle choices.
Now, higher gas prices will bring about change. But that change is going to come at the margins, and over time. I expect to see cars get smaller and more fuel efficient. People will take more care choosing homes that are fuel efficient, and this may change the focus of new home construction over time.
But you have to keep some perspective here. Consider my case. I live about 15km from work. My vehicle burns about 10L/100km. So in a month’s worth of commuting, I’ll use about 60L of gas. That’s currently about $80/mo. As expenses go, I pay more than that for my cable TV, for our families cell phones, for my parking pass, insurance, and for depreciation of my vehicle. If the price of gas goes to $2/L, I’ll pay $120/mo for gas. Do you really think that’s going to stop me from living in the suburbs? Or push me into mass transit?
Mass transit just doesn’t work in the majority of cities for the majority of people. It works great for some - students, single people who live near a transit stop, people who move from one area on the densely populated transit line to another. That amounts to just a few percent of the residents of the city. The rest of the people will not use it.
I live pretty close to one of our light-rail transit stops. My office is situated right on top of a light-rail transit stop. And yet, I don’t use light-rail transit. How come? Because I occasionally need my vehicle at work. Because I drop my daughter off at school in the morning. Because every night I stop for bread and milk and pick up other things we need at home. My commute is currently about 20 minutes. If I took the LRT, my day would be like this: Walk two blocks to the bus stop. Stand and wait for the bus for 5-10 minutes. Ride the bus for 15 minutes to the transit stop. Wait 5-10 minutes for the train. Ride the train for 10 minutes to the stop under my building. My building is on a 3-block area which includes a mall. The transit stop is in the basement of the mall, so even though it’s as close as it could be, I’m still looking at four escalators, and a two block walk to my office elevator. So my 20 minute commute, in which I drive out of my garage and into another garage at my destination, has turned into anywhere from 50 minutes to an hour and a half of walking, fighting crowds, standing outside in the weather, and general hassle I don’t need. ANd then I don’t have a vehicle at work if I need it. Plus my daughter would then have to ride the bus to school herself.
How expensive do you think gas would have to be before I’d give up my car and take the train? Long before then, I’ll downsize the vehicle, save costs by telecommuting a day per week, or just suck up the cost. A new car costs the owner over $1000/mo already - adding another $100/mo in gas costs isn’t going to cause the car owner to radically change his or her lifestyle.