Are you ready for $10/Gallon gas and long lines at the pump?

The BBQ Pit
201

[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
A 45 minute commute or worse is the norm for most people taking mass transit.

.
[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately (in a way) this is true. Especially if you have to change trains, you’re going to lose a lot of time; 90% of the time it’s faster to drive yourself, which is a good reason for the powerful attraction that solo commuting by car has for so many of us. While I recognize this, for my part, I hate the grind of daily commuting. I’d rather take a train, or even a bus, and spend the time reading or studying.

As for the commute time by rail, I posted here some time ago how surprised I was to learn that it could take 90 minutes by subway to reach mid-town Manhattan from the remoter parts of Brooklyn. Interestingly, many people find they “burn through” books and magazines the same way we burn through gasoline elsewhere.

202

[QUOTE=MrDibble]
I know those are ex-colonies, but I don’t see the significance of that to what you said.
[/QUOTE]

I was thinking of Canada and Australia, both countries nearly as large or larger than the continental U.S., but with far fewer people which one would expect to exacerbate the density issue when it comes to fuel consumption, suitability for mass transit, and so on.

203

[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Those are the kinds of choices people will make. They won’t sell their homes and move into apartments in the cities. They won’t start putting their families on buses and trains.

…

And if you just sit back and let the market work and respond to high prices, we’ll find the optimal path through the transition.
[/QUOTE]
And what if the optimal free market path through the transition IS moving into apartments and riding buses and trains?

I don’t think anyone here is arguing that people should be FORCED to give up their suburban lifestyle. We’re just pointing out that there will be strong economic pressures against it.

The suburbs are not inevitable. They’re the result of a particular constellation of technology and economics. Right now the economics are shifting against them. Maybe technology will take up the slack as you describe, maybe not.

204

Spectre your comments reminded me of something that’s been sitting on a mental back burner for the past couple of days.

A lot of public transit thinking seems predicated on the assumption that the only purpose of the transit is to provide an alternative to the daily commute. Leading to an effort to tailor hours of operation around that. Which is a mistake. First off, there are classes of workers who work in urban areas, but do not follow the nine-to-five grind. Hospital personnel, for example, power generation, wastewater treatment, and other vital services are 24/7. There are areas that have so curtailed the hours on their public transport as to keep these people from being able to use public transit, even if they’d wanted to.

Several years ago I was in DC, having taken the bus to the city and intending to take the METRO out to the Vienna station to be picked up. I was told that I would be getting in too late to take the train: They stopped running (at the time, AIUI the METRO runs later, now, and this is much less of a problem) around 10 PM. Which seemed to me to be shutting down just early enough to make sure that anyone wishing to partake of the cultural offerings in the city would have to use a car, or a cab. Not a good showing, IMNSHO for what is often touted as one of the better public transit systems in the US. Coming from NYC, at the time, where there’s some service 24 hours this was a bit of a shock to me.

I have a friend who lives in a rural area of Massachusetts, and he routinely ignores the bus, because it has its last run before 6 PM. I don’t know when they start up in the morning, but for anyone not working exactly nine-to-five, that’s got to be more frustrating that no bus service at all.

If people want to really advocate public transit as a replacement for private autos, vice an augmentation for the same thing, the point has to be made, early and often, that public transit will need to be available for most of the 24 hour day, not just around the hours of the nominal daily commute. Frankly, if someone is working second or third shift, and the public transit schedules are such that they can’t use the service, is it that surprising that they’d be hostile to the idea of publicly funding such a service?

205

OK, at the risk of hijacking an otherwise entertaining and informative thread:

What is happening with India and China? All I hear is “increased demand from India and China.” But the price hikes have to be hitting them even harder than they are hitting us. It seems to me that the problem will shake out a lot sooner than expected when those economies start really feeling the crunch. If we cut back on our spending, it will be felt there first, adding to their woes. Yes? No? Maybe? Anybody want to weigh it with some data?

206

[QUOTE=jaydotbeedot]
Desperation Gathers and Makes a Nightly Dash for Britain

“Most weeknights, smugglers lead clandestine migrants across the maze of highways that encircle Calais to parking lots like this, where drivers sleep before catching a ferry to Dover, 21 miles away. The migrants, who have paid the smugglers $500 to $1,000 to get them across the English Channel, will try again.”
[/QUOTE]

Consider my ignorace fought. I wonder though if the numbers are comparable to the US…

…after reading the story more completely, 18,000 (approximate) stops were made. Not even close to the 157,281 we showed the door in 2004.

207

[QUOTE=silenus]
OK, at the risk of hijacking an otherwise entertaining and informative thread:

What is happening with India and China? All I hear is “increased demand from India and China.” But the price hikes have to be hitting them even harder than they are hitting us. It seems to me that the problem will shake out a lot sooner than expected when those economies start really feeling the crunch. If we cut back on our spending, it will be felt there first, adding to their woes. Yes? No? Maybe? Anybody want to weigh it with some data?
[/QUOTE]

It’s anecdotal at this point, but I don’t think fuel prices are doing any damage to people who cant afford cars. I would suspect that a) the food costs more, which hurts them, the cost of the raw materials for the millions of tons of plastic used every year in China to stock the Wal-Mart shelves is going up, which hurts the factory owners. I’d think India suffers most on the food side of things.

208

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
I agree we may need to look at some our domestic oil resources. I really do not want to see drilling in the ANWR, but can the environmental impact of that be minimized to the point where it would be acceptable to most people? It seems to me the technology of oil drilling has made some progress; what with slant drilling and similar approaches. If the derricks could be confined to a small percentage of the ANWR by slant drilling, than it might be something to consider. But we need an oil engineer or other expert to tell us about this. Paging Tapioca Dextrin!.
[/QUOTE]

I believe that’s exactly the idea. More than that though, I would call for a “real world” style surveillance system in the public areas of any facility. Not a single square inch of pipeline, storage facility, pumping station etc left uncovered by cameras that were accessable to the entire world on the web. Of course, trade secrets should be protected, as well as speech but with big brother over your shoulder, there would be more incentive to make sure things didn’t happen that shouldn’t. Moreover, I would put automatic, non-appealable fines in place of $5 million a day for every day after one that the cameras were down that went, in thier entirety to the preservation of the remaining ANWR lands.

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
At least having more of the raw material might eliminate some of the panic factor.
[/QUOTE]

It would make OPEC think as well.

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
This doesn’t mean we don’t need to look at our environmental footprint. Because of our way of life, it’s huge, and as I keep saying here, so much of it is endemic to the way our lives are structured. Our need to keep our cars fueled represents a demand that is nearly inelastic, and we give up other things to afford to do it. If that weren’t the case, this situation would not be so troubling. A few people can say they’ll start riding their bike to work, or they’ll use mass transit, or they’ll telecommute a couple of days a week. These are all great ideas, but probably not feasible for the majority–the last of them, at least not until the typical manager becomes more willing to let back-office staff do so.
[/QUOTE]

Agreed, but we need a shot in the arm here. I’m all for alternative energies, I’d love to drive a hybrid, but it’s not in the cards for me, plus, it’s hardly worth the effort to squeze myself into something like a prius for a net savings of 50 bucks or so. Drilling and pulling more of the dino juice from the earth is a today, tomorrow, next tuesday fix. Alternative energies are a next month, next year fix. For most Americans, all of the ideas, mass trans, telecommuting, bike riding, are altogether impractical, if you want your business to suffer and maybe fail, have your people work from home.

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
What, we should bully the rest of the earth? Seems to me that isn’t working out too well. Even if one accepts the “war for oil” idea, the Iraqi oil is not ours, it’s theirs, and we still have to pay for it.
[/QUOTE]

Not saying we SHOULD, just that we COULD. If we were of the mind to bring Iraq under control, we could do it in under 30 days. We’re not. We want to stifle the bad guys and let Iraq control Iraq, which, for the feel-good factor is the way to go, but it’s not as practical as it is palatable. No one wants to see big, mean 'ol 'Merica bully Iraq into submission, but it’s obvious that control, especially in the middle east, is more illusion that truth.

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
As for liberating the oppressed, we’ve certainly taken heroic action in the past, as Coldfire’s annual posts about the liberation of The Netherlands attests. We can still be proud of those things notwithstanding more recent errors in judgement. But liberation is not always possible or feasible. I think it may be similar to Marx’s notion that the revolution he called for was not feasible unless there was already an urban proletariat in place. Sometimes, when you take out the dictator, worse chaos ensues.
[/QUOTE]

Generally agreed, but I think that when the situation is dire, what needs to be done, needs to be done. The fact still remains though that we’re on the top of the pile, and if we suffer, eventually, everybody suffers.

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
Is that really so? My understanding is that the EC has quite an influx of legal and illegal immigrants from poor countries near to it, much like we have here. Where do you think all those Muslims in France are coming from?
[/QUOTE]

Consider my ignorance fought on that subject in a post previous. :slight_smile:

[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus]
Just as telling is the fact that European immigration to America has dropped off to practically nothing, compared to that from Asia and Latin America. To me this indicates that, at least in Western and Northern Europe, people are content with their economic lot and no longer feel driven to migrate across the Atlantic as they once did.
[/QUOTE]

Indeed, when 15 of 21 seperate countries (that total almost 480 million people) band together and create a common currency that is bolstered by a myriad of economic microclimates such as the EU, it’s easy to draw immigrants that only have to travel across the proverbial street as opposed to the planet to make a life for themselves. If the dollar was topping the euro, rather, when it tops the euro, people will make their way back here, I do believe.

209

[QUOTE=Pochacco]
And what if the optimal free market path through the transition IS moving into apartments and riding buses and trains?

I don’t think anyone here is arguing that people should be FORCED to give up their suburban lifestyle. We’re just pointing out that there will be strong economic pressures against it.

The suburbs are not inevitable. They’re the result of a particular constellation of technology and economics. Right now the economics are shifting against them. Maybe technology will take up the slack as you describe, maybe not.
[/QUOTE]

Hey, if that’s the way the market pushes everyone, I’m all for it. If free people voluntarily choose to change their lifestyles based on rational considerations, great.

But I find it more likely that social planners will attempt to decide what is good for the people, and then chivvy them along iin the direction they think is ‘best’ through a combination of punitive taxes for the ‘wrong’ kind of living, subsidies for the ‘right’ kind of living, zoning laws prohibited suburban development, using eminent domain to cut right-of-ways for mass transit, heavily subsidizing mass transit and taxing cars, etc.

Here in our city the council is already threatening some of this. They want to build a whole raft of new subsidized housing in the inner city, and pay for it with higher property taxes, which are primarily collected from the suburbs. Plus, they are cutting back on road service and other services in the suburbs and focusing on building out more facilities in the inner city.

210

[QUOTE=Szlater]
What do you mean “flop”?

Do you mean “not be used” or do you mean “not be profitable”?
[/QUOTE]

S/he must mean “not be used” as I don’t know of any transit system that is “profitable”, at least not in the USA. That’s why the private sector got out of the business and the US government took it over. I carried a transit grant request to UMTA, the US transit agency, for my (former) city employer to take over the city’s failed bus system and I assembled the specs for a grant to replace another bus fleet. I also worked on various mass transit studies including Detroit and Rochester (35 years ago), just before I changed my career specialty.
I loved Jon Stewart’s report on the most recent visit of GWB to the Saudi king. where Jon said that “He (W) received the Employee of the Month Award”.

211

I’m going to inquire about telecommuting for work. Maybe just a day a week.

And it’s not just about gas prices.

Case in point. I have to take my dog to the vet today. Then bring her home. I’m not going to turn around and put another 50 miles on my car so I can work for a few hours. Waste of time. I’ll just take a vacation day.

But I could come home and work for a few hours. Hell, I could be working right now (Appointment isn’t until 9:30).

Many of us telecommute to some degree. When I’m away from work, particularly if it’s unscheduled, I check my work email and respond to questions from home.

I was a little peeved when my personal email got blocked at work. Blocking web mail is pretty much standard policy. My boss asked me if I could come up with a ‘business case’ to get my email they would open it up. It’s not that big of a deal to me, so I just dropped it. Shees. It just seems so petty. I suspect that many people use work email as their personal email to get around this.

I’ve worked there for 16 years. I do check my work email when I’m at home. Perhaps I should stop. I do have a business case for checking work email when I’m at home. It’s because I care about the work I do and want to support the people that need me. Works both ways IMHO. Or should.

212

[QUOTE=buttonjockey308]
Consider my ignorace fought. I wonder though if the numbers are comparable to the US…

…after reading the story more completely, 18,000 (approximate) stops were made. Not even close to the 157,281 we showed the door in 2004.
[/QUOTE]

I think this article must refer to removals made at Dover or maybe just the sea ports. This Central Office of Statistics press release refers to 63,140 people being deported from the UK in 2007. Not quite up to US levels but demonstarting nonetheless that the UK exercises a significant draw to would be immigrants. [http://nds.coi.gov.uk/content/detail.asp?NewsAreaID=2&ReleaseID=355514&print=true](UK Immigration Stats 2007)

213

[QUOTE=Some Whelks]
I think this article must refer to removals made at Dover or maybe just the sea ports. This Central Office of Statistics press release refers to 63,140 people being deported from the UK in 2007. Not quite up to US levels but demonstarting nonetheless that the UK exercises a significant draw to would be immigrants. [http://nds.coi.gov.uk/content/detail.asp?NewsAreaID=2&ReleaseID=355514&print=true](UK Immigration Stats 2007)
[/QUOTE]

Especially considering they all had to cross the Channel, rather than just the Rio Grande…

214

[QUOTE=enipla]

I’ve worked there for 16 years. I do check my work email when I’m at home. Perhaps I should stop. I do have a business case for checking work email when I’m at home. It’s because I care about the work I do and want to support the people that need me. Works both ways IMHO. Or should.
[/QUOTE]

Your email support forward filters? If so you could prolly just set it to forward all your email to work email address.

215

You know, I am so tired of the whine-whine-whining of people who can’t accept that they don’t have some sort of God-given right to live in a 2500-square-foot house in the far-out suburbs, drive an SUV whose actual 4WD capabilities are never in fact engaged (and whose full cargo capabilities are in use a few times a year, if that), and have a 15-minute commute. I’d like to lie in bed all day and have a cabana boy who feeds me bonbons, but I don’t have that, either.
You won’t find a bigger proponent of expanding public transportation than I am; I fully agree that it shouldn’t be impossible, in practical terms, to (for example) commute via public transportation from a north Chicago suburb to a northwest Chicago suburb without having to transit via downtown Chicago, or to get from the north side of Chicago to O’Hare Airport in less than two hours, when via car it’s a 20-minute trip.

However, most of us could do a betetr job than we do at saving fuel and other resources. All over the world, people manage to live in modest apartments, even with children and amazingly, these children even survive to adulthood! Although my own sister for some unknown reason is convinced she NEEDS an SUV to commute with one child maybe 2 miles to her job, when a bus route runs literally from the end of her block to a dropoff point which is a ten-minute walk to her workplace. And of course they have to have a second car (at least that one’s not an SUV) because her husband has to drive to his job, which is walking distance from the same bus route that serves the end of their block, because he couldn’t POSSIBLY wait the max 15 minutes between runs of that bus to start his trip home. Or, you know, ride his bike the 2 – 3 miles. And still, they can’t figure out why they are always broke, between the cost of gas and two hefty car payments and insurance.

And yet, my college roommate in England somehow manages to walk or take public transportation everywhere with her 2 kids (ages, I think, 5 and 8 at the moment – she’s done it since they were both in strollers). Their family of 4 owns one tiny car, maybe the size of a Geo Metro; even with a husband who is 6’ tall and two kids in car seats, somehow they survived. Just the way I can survive sharing a one-bedroom apartment with my boyfriend, which I chose on purpose because of its location – 5 minutes on foot from a commuter train to my job downtown. I can do anything I need on foot, or via public transportation. I do own a car (which I bought during a period when I didn’t have the use of one leg), but in nearly 11 years, I finally managed to put 50,000 miles on it. I have panniers on my bike so I can take it grocery shopping when the weather is decent.

It’s called living within one’s means, people – it ain’t rocket science.

216

I love public transportation! I don’t understand people who seem so against it. Sure there is the occasional homeless beggar or a crowded car that requires you to stand, but really the benefits make it worth it. I read 3-4 books a week and listen to the occasional audiobook on my commute. Every morning I take a 20 minute nap on the last leg of my commute to work. The entire train is full of people napping, actually, and the conductor comes by and wakes everyone up before we get to the last stop. I know to the minute when I will be home or when I will get to the office. If I am late I can call ahead and let them know there is a delay and kick back with my book instead of sitting there in bumper to bumper traffic getting angry with the powers that be over my delay. Best of all it costs me about $80 a month to get anywhere I need to go in the city at any time. No, wait, best of all is the dramatic weight loss I have experienced since I got rid of my car. I have lost 50 lbs in a year, cut my transportation expenses by hundreds of dollars a month(no gas, insurance, car payments, traffic tickets, etc.), reduced my carbon footprint, done my part to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and reduced the amount of stress in my life tenfold.

217

I hate public transportation. I don’t understand why anyone would prefer to use it. I can’t read in a moving vehicle. I would much rather read at home.

I make sure that I am fully rested before I go to work. I don’t take naps and sure as heck couldn’t do it on public transport. Perhaps living in the city is keeping you up at night?

I have not been late to work in the 16 years of my current job. Or any job if I recall. I know just what time I need to leave and arrive.

I do need a vehicle. Therefore I do have to pay insurance, and maintenance. There are people that I need to see, tasks to take care of and a life outside of going to work.

Living in the ‘city’ would increase my stress ten fold.

But that’s just me.

So. You might note that you and I are a bit different. I am not slamming your lifestyle. I’ve spent plenty of time (years) in cities to know it just isn’t for me. I just can’t imagine living in an apartment or high rise. Just like you may not know how to live miles from neighbors, or a coffee shop.

Don’t forget this though…….

The people in suburbia, exerbia (guess that’s a new term) and even the sticks all support infrastructure that supports ourselves, and even, GASP people in cities.

Trying to crush everyone into urban areas is not the answer. Not by a long shot.

218

[QUOTE=Eva Luna]
You know, I am so tired of the whine-whine-whining of people who can’t accept that they don’t have some sort of God-given right to live in a 2500-square-foot house in the far-out suburbs, drive an SUV whose actual 4WD capabilities are never in fact engaged (and whose full cargo capabilities are in use a few times a year, if that), and have a 15-minute commute. I’d like to lie in bed all day and have a cabana boy who feeds me bonbons, but I don’t have that, either.
[/quote]
You’re really angry aren’t you? If you get a cabana boy, go for the pealed grapes.

How, exactly, do you think that everyone can live in a city? Gonna put a fence around it or what?

You also seem to be angry with your Sister and BIL.

Take the bus.
Walk a few blocks.

Do you know why your sister doesn’t want to take the bus? Have you asked her?

I drive an SUV which pretty much put’s me at the bottom of the pond scum in the view of many of the SDMB. I explain why I drive an SUV and it’s OK from most members.

“Oh” It’s OK for YOU. But everyone else that drives an SUV is an asshole.

Heh.

219

[QUOTE=Eva Luna]
You know, I am so tired of the whine-whine-whining of people who can’t accept that they don’t have some sort of God-given right to live in a 2500-square-foot house in the far-out suburbs, drive an SUV whose actual 4WD capabilities are never in fact engaged (and whose full cargo capabilities are in use a few times a year, if that), and have a 15-minute commute. I’d like to lie in bed all day and have a cabana boy who feeds me bonbons, but I don’t have that, either.

It’s called living within one’s means, people – it ain’t rocket science.
[/QUOTE]

Ah yes, the old “living within your means” argument. I too am tired of the whine-whine-whining of the people who can’t accept that people the country over don’t have the same one-sided views of what to do with their hard earned money as you do. :rolleyes: .

It isn’t a God-given right, it’s much more important than that, it’s an EARNED right. It’s a go to work at 6am, don’t get home until 9pm, take the kids to seven different events and still try to have a decent family life, right. Not everyone can stomach living in the city, not everyone wants to expose their children to the city (I personally would, if I had kids, but that’s me). And that’s the beauty of this, our experiment in representative capitalism, we can and will do anything and everything we can afford to do, just like everybody else around the bloody world would do if they could. Not right away, of course, but after years and years of having plenty, people would start to act as we are now, and come to expect that they would always be able to do anything, go anywhere, and be comfortable while they did it, and they’d react the same way as we are now when the tide of popular opinion started to turn. Frankly, I’m sick of these McMansions and GarageMajals in the lilly-white crime free suburbs. The idea of living in one of these pleasant-valley-sunday-robot factories makes me want to puke. However, if I change my mind, if I want to build a 5,000 squre foot house with all the bells and whistles just for me and the dogs, and drive an H1 to and from my job, and I have the money to do it, then why shouldn’t I be able to do that, hell, why shouldn’t everyone who wants to? That’s the idea of freedom.

You’ll answer of course, “because it’s bad for the earth” and you’ll be right, but in the grand scheme of things, I don’t believe for even one second that the earth will not, that nature will not ultimately prevail over any little thing we can throw at her. As a race, we’ve already worn out our welcome.

220

[QUOTE=enipla]
You’re really angry aren’t you? I
[/quote]

Not angry, disgusted at the overwhelming sense of entitlement of so many Americans who think they have some sort of inalienable right to a higher standard of living than the rest of the planet without ALL the sacrifices that come with it.

I said nothing of the sort - I said that many people could make more of an effort than they do to orient their lives around public transportation. My mom did it, my dad did it, I do it, billions of people on this planet do it.

Yes, because this is just one of the myriad ways they expect the rest of society to carry their share of the load of the social contract.

If it makes any difference to you, she was the same way before the kid, and when she lived a short walk from a direct train line and multiple express bus lines to the center of a city that is one of the best-served in the U.S.. by public transportation, and into which hundreds of thousands of people take public transportation every single day. And yet she often spent more than the daily equivalent of her rent on parking downtown, while foregoing other financial obligations. Yes, I think that’s irresponsible - don’t you?

I don’t know, or have the time or inclination to investigate, the needs vs. the motives of every single person who drives an SUV, minivan, or Range Rover for all that matters. I care that on the whole, too many people in the U.S. live beyond their means and refuse to have any accountability for it. SUVs are just another symptom of the same internal issues that have given us the residential mortgage crisis - people who can’t accept that they simply aren’t in a position to have every goddamn thing they want, and leaving the rest of society holding the bill.

Heh.
[/QUOTE]