IMHO, one big shift in the upcoming decades is that almost everything will have to be done in air-conditioning indoors, or at night. The temperature in many places, especially summer, will simply be prohibitive for anything in the sunny day.
We won’t see NFL games in outdoor stadiums at 1 PM anymore, for instance (unless it’s a winter game.) Road crews may have to end up doing their road work at night instead of day (and they often already do anyway.) Farmers may have to farm at night. A lot more people may end up working the graveyard shift. The work hours may shift from the traditional 9-to-5 to something a lot more nocturnal. School may be shifted towards dark hours as well, or at least all fully air-conditioned.
I’m not seeing it. My daughter lives in Arizona, which has been in the news a lot recently for temperatures being up in the hundred-and-holy-fuck range. They just cope with it. Humans are more resilient than you think. There were days when I would call up my daughter and she would say that the weather wasn’t so bad that day, the temperature was only 110. My daughter has become so acclimated to the heat that she feels cold when she comes home to Pennsylvania to visit.
There are a lot of other areas of the world where people live that are very hot, and those folks haven’t become nocturnal either.
A lot of farming might end up moving north just because the plants can’t survive the heat.We also have a lot of “zombie forests”, which are forests where the trees can’t reproduce and create new trees due to the increased temperatures. Once the existing trees get old and die off, they will end up being replaced by trees that can tolerate the new climate. So a lot of things are going to change, but I seriously doubt that humans will become nocturnal.
Most schools are already fully air-conditioned. Many, if not most, businesses are also air-conditioned. I can’t see any reason for standard business hours to change.
I’ve been to Arizona in August and saw kids playing scoocer at 7:00 in the morning while I was going to work. My GF is from Mexico and during the summer they don’t go out during the day, but later at night once things start to cool down. But, these places don’t do this all of the time. Its more of a seasonal adjustment. And I didn’t notice a lack of services during the day while I was there.
Just the other day a read a feature article about farm hands in Central Spain that have switched to working on the vineyards etc. at night, headlamps ablaze, precisely because it’s become too hot to work during daylight hours.
Spain has seen persistent temps in the 45 C (113 F) range.
What will get bad is the poorer parts of the world where air conditioning simply isn’t available or affordable in anything close to the needed quantity. And even if HVAC machinery were available / affordable the electrical infrastructure to power it isn’t and won’t be.
In tropical climates you also have the increasing humidity. Once it gets both hot and humid enough, people simply can’t survive a single day even laying down in the shade; they simply overheat, become unconscious, and die.
Further, at least in the temperate climes of much of the so-called First World, the big change from AGW will not be higher daily highs. It’ll be higher daily lows. Days will be statistically slightly warmer, but nights will be statistically significantly warmer. De facto meteorological summer will be longer, winter shorter, and the duration of spring and fall will vary more by locale.
If agriculture migrates indoors it’ll be more in response to managing evaporation & drought than daytime high temps. And perhaps to changing transport costs which will make growing a city’s food in/adjacent to the city much more necessary and relatively cost-efficient than it is today.
My bottom line:
The OP is right that problems are ahead. But moving to indoor or nocturnal ops in the USA, Europe, etc. are unlikely to be a big part of the accommodation.
OP: basically the higher temperature in a given location a few decades from now will be equivalent to the temperatures of today–but a few hundred miles south of that location. So look at how people are behaving a few hundred miles south of you now. While there certainly is an effect (using more air conditioning…) it is not as strong an effect as you are suggesting.
A number of my Facebook friends are meteorite hunters living in Morocco/Algeria. A few days ago one posted some photos of searching in the Sahara at 130⁰ F.
There were POW camps in Arkansas during WWII. Uncooperative prisoners were convinced to work by placing them outside with headlights around them, so that Arkansas mosquitoes tortured them into working.
There was a recent power outage for four days. We were miserable without A/C. Our neighbor died. I don’t know what health problems he had.
Most NFL games are autumn or winter and many teams play in climate controlled stadiums, including both Texas teams, New Orleans, Arizona, Vegas, Miami, Atlanta… Not many NFL games will ever be threatened by too much heat.
103 people have died from heat in two Arizona counties. Cite: Extreme heat has killed 103 people in 2 Arizona counties so far in 2023
That’s quite a “let them eat cake” attitude, isn’t it. Some people can’t afford air conditioning. Some people have to work outside.
When I lived in the Congo - which never got nearly as hot as Phoenix these days - school started early in the morning and ended at lunch. Everyone had their big meal at noontime when we could come inside. My father had basically siesta time.
The heat is already cutting into productivity, since workers need longer breaks and aren’t going to work as efficiently in the heat.
Scientifically plausible, but not politically so. Can you imagine the attendants at the Davos conference coming to grips with climate change? I can’t. I read in today’s Times that members of a certain political party (which I don’t name to conform to forum rules) are now saying that the thermometers have been adjusted to lie about the temperatures. Adjusted by Jewish space lasers maybe.
Agree completely about political implausibility. I dropped that awkward “scientifically” plausible in there just to forestall confusion.
All of KSR’s books have as their core idea that humanity collectively, and substantially all the humans individually, finally grow up to be adults, not spoiled chimps, gaining wisdom equal to our power and our sheer numbers. Responsible adult behavior, not mere personal convenience, become the Prime directive for every individual and therefore for the highly responsive and morally upright governments they choose.
As to the real world of real AGW, IMO certain subsets of Europe might be persuaded to change their own AGW-genic behaviors. The poor countries being fried will have to do adaptation and/or simply abandon vast swathes of land as it becomes uninhabitable.
The USA and the various authoritarian regimes around the world will be business as usual until their entire landmass is underwater or sizzling. By which time they’ll have long since invaded a neighbor to take their landmass.
I dislike being a pessimist / no-hoper. But in this case I think the worst aspects of human nature, the worst aspects of 20th / 21st century political and economic thought, and an exponentially growing problem that still moves at a lifespan’s pace will overwhelm our monkey-brain ability to manage.
Ayuh! I don’t even live in the southwest and I’ve taken to wearing a light-weight hat if I’m going to be outdoors for any longer than a few minutes, even if it’s cloudy.