The Assad family has had a deathgrip on Syria for decades-the younger guy seems every bit as brutal as his late father-and his Alawite clan seems firmly ensconced in all the top jobs.
The question is: if his gang is overthrown, what are the chances that a less-hostile (to Israel) government would emerge?
Frankly, the Assad family was very bad for Syria-it kept the country isolated and allied itself with the near-insane regime in Iran. And, aside from the small area of land that Israel seized (the Golan heights), Syria has no real beef with Israel.
So, would the fall of the Assad regime be good for Israel?
The news from Egypt is not encouraging-at least Mubarek kept the peace with Israel-now, it seems that the new regime is likley to be hostile.
What do you think?
It would probably be bad for everyone concerned. Lebanon would probably go up in flames if Syria goes down, and gods know what would happen in Iran, Iraq and even Turkey. I guess it depends on how it all goes down, but it could be a blood bath similar to what happened in Iraq when we invaded…the factions in Syria are similar, though even more diverse, and Syria is sort of the crossroads of the entire area…the shockwaves from it going tits up would be much worse and more severe than those of either Egypt or Libya.
-XT
Lebanon’s instability isn’t due to Syria’s weakness, but Syria’s strength. Syria wants a destabilized and dependent Lebanon, and has been pursuing that pretty consistently for the past 30 years. Lebanon’s basically been the site of a proxy war between Syria and Israel that’s been destroying it. If the Assads go down, a lot of that tension on Lebanon is going to ease up as Hezbollah and Amal lose funding.
Getting rid of the Assads would ease the pressure on Israel. The new Syrian government really couldn’t be MORE hostile to Israel than the current one, short of an outright invasion, and sources of funding for Hezbollah and Hamas would likely start to dry up, at least short term.
Regarding Egypt, I don’t think the new regime will be all that hostile to Israel. There will be some saber rattling, maybe, but the Egyptians have no real interest in disturbing the status quo.
You have to remember the only reason Syria took Iran’s side, is Syria is anti Iraq. Or was while before the US invasion. Now that Saddam is long since gone, once the USA gets out, who knows what’ll happen.
Assad is an Alawite and they are not considered Muslims by quite a few. In fact the Syrian Constitution was set up to declare Alawtie’s as Muslims. They are reported to celebrate such Christian rites as Christmas, Easter and Palm Sunday.
So to move away from this to a more traditional Sunni regime, (Sunni’s are majority) could be good.
On the downside, Jordan has always had a decent relationship (as far as Arab-Israeli relations go) in part because Jordan hates Syria. Jordan hates Syria far more than Israel. With the threat of Syria gone, Jordan could become more anti-Israeli.
Syria has always had a close relationship with Russia (and before that the USSR). Russia still has a base in Tartus and a smaller one in
The Mubarak exit was bad for Israel, and this too could be bad. On the one hand, it could weaken Iran’s strength. On the other, maybe Iran will just keep funneling cash into Hezbollah and Hamas in the hopes of gaining more influence.
Then what? If Syria and Lebanon aren’t at odds, then Israel could potentially be surrounded by anti-Israel allies. In the past, the Arabs were just too busy fighting each other. This new “democracy” (read: political regime change) in the Middle East isn’t stable for anyone. “Revolution in Egypt” and “Revolution in Syria” will just translate to “arm Palestinians and Hezbollah” as the next logical step. I just don’t see Iran twiddling thumbs.
Bleh. I see another border war.
If the U.S. ever had a reason to meddle abroad this year, a little more interfering in Egypt would have been nice. Now we have our ‘friendly terrorist’ president replaced by the military.
>headsmack<
I’ll go out on a limb and say it might be good, or it might be bad.
An excellent summary there. The aftermath of all of these new governments is pretty much a roll of the dice at this time. Prior to these movements all of the governments were good 'ol fashioned dictatorships and , like it or not, at least the US–and the other dictators–how to deal with them. As new governments emerge there will be many new dynamics and relationships. I believe that any representative government would be beneficial to Israel–but boy is their intellegence service going to be working overtime for awhile.
I am really looking forward to the Assad clan going away. some really nasty people that have done some awful things to Lebanon over the decades.
Yeah, yeah. What does a Zionist say after sex?
Was it good for the Jews?
It depans what replaces it. If it’s just a re-arranging of the deck chairs of the existing power structure, as appears to be happening in the other Arab countries that have had some form of popular revolution, then no real change at all. If there’s an actual popular revolution that brings an actual popular government to power, something I wouldn’t put money on, then it won’t be good for Israel. But like with any other Arab copuntry that does manage to pproduce an actual popularaly elected government, Israel will only be affected diplomatically and can mitigate the effects by branding the government as Islamist, radical, etc. etc. and undermine whatever legiimacy they may have in the global community. It’ll also give them a chance to scare their population, their wider diaspora and their supporters around the world into wetting the bed over the alleged huge new threat from big bad Syria. But basically no change whatever the outcome in Damascus.
I really don’t care if it is good or bad for Israel. There are larger issues at stake. However I expect that if the tyranny falls and some form of democracy is established in its place, then over the longer period it will benefit Israel too. Those Arab regimes have for decades played on both horses. With one side of the mouth they have spoken soothing words to the West and tried to convince us that they are the only thing that could stop Islamism and guarantee Israel - with the other side of the mouth they have preached hatred to their own population, demonized Israel and the West and viciously suppressed their own population, and thus ensuring nothing would should ever evolve otherwise. I am tired of being blackmailed by two bit dictators and tyrants. At least the new situation opens the door for the possibility of something else. And perhaps also democracy will also make some kind of economic progress more likely. This would also benefit Israel. Prosperous, educated and informed neighbors have always been better.
Yes, ordinary politicians who have to run for re-election next year would never do any of that! 
What I really hated about the old regimes, is the way in which they both were the cause of and set themselves up as the only solution to radical Islamism. I believe much of the irrational hatred of Israel and the West, &etc is due to exactly the kind of repression the tyrants subjected their population to. Ordinary politicians can talk shite all they like, but if it should pass that the countries get some kind of functional democracy, then they won’t be able to suppress their population in the same manner.
Nothing will change overnight. But perhaps now there is a chance for some change that will be felt in a generation or two.
I do. Israel’s foreign relations and the U.S.'s are intertwined quite often. If Israel were just out constantly fucking itself and being dicks whenever possible, then to hell with them. There’s no “Israel controls the U.S.” More like, “The U.S. has too much influence in Israel’s policies”. But Israel and the U.S. need each other right now.
New democracies are unstable ones, and there’s no telling what would replace the current Syrian government – or how Iran is going to react.
The new democracy in Palestine didn’t do Israel any favors. (: