Assuming Palin runs, how likely is it that she could win?

[Recovering_Republican]

@Jas09

I really don’t think it’s possible for her to even win the nomination. She will show well, no doubt about that - her base is fervent, and as Recovering points out, many of things she gets mocked for are actually assets with them.

But a fervent base only gets you so far. Lets say your potential path comes true (she wins in Iowa and SC - maybe with something like 25-30% of a highly-divided vote). After this, many of the marginal candidates will drop out, leaving something like Palin, Romney, Pawlenty (perhaps), maybe Rick Perry if he decides to run. By the time we get to Super Tuesday it will pretty much be down to Palin and not-Palin (and I think who that candidate will be is up for grabs). And that’s where the high negatives in her own party kill her - there just aren’t enough “second choice” Palin votes out there, IMO.

In the end I think she knows this, and is perfectly happy in her current role. But I know the OP was making the assumption that she decided to run. I could also see the above scenario be playing itself out with Bachman in the Palin role.

I don’t know, I’ve read a few people who think she’s really planning to jump in

Let’s put it more generally. If Palin doesn’t run, then Bachmann will, and frankly, I’d be more afraid of Bachmann than Palin.

Romney’s big problems are that he’s a Mormon, (most Evangelicals consider the Mormons to be heretics, at best.) and that he’s a guy with four mansions who got that way by corporate raiding and putting working folks out of jobs.

You see, this is the underlying secret of the GOP. The GOP is the party of the wealthy. Once you realize that, as I have, you realize that as a working guy voting Republican makes about as much sense as a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders (Hense, my nom de plume). But they talk about guns and gays and Jesus and keep a lot of working folks voting against their own economic interests.

All that said, they can’t rub people’s noses in it by nominating guys who don’t at least APPEAR to resonate with the average Joe.

Also, I think you discount those early primaries. They have a snowball effect- No, wait, screw that metaphor, they have an effect like Lemmings. You win Iowa, everyone takes you a bit more seriously. They give you a second look.

Now, I think the reason why Huckabee wasn’t the nominee in 2008 was because people who really run things looked at the populist leanings and said, 'Hey, he can spout the Jesus stuff without signing on to the tax cuts for the rich stuff and win! YIKES!" Democracy might break out, and the 1% that owns half of everything will realize- they actually only have 1% of the vote. That’s why you had Limbaugh and the Club for Growth come down on this guy.

Palin could have a similar populist appeal, because really, she wasn’t rich until she cashed in. She and Todd had very blue collar lives . And although he is a pathetic shill, Limbaugh can’t get out there and now denounce her after praising her for three years.

[joebuck20]

@Recovering_Republican

Palin could have a similar populist appeal, because really, she wasn’t rich until she cashed in. She and Todd had very blue collar lives . And although he is a pathetic shill, Limbaugh can’t get out there and now denounce her after praising her for three years.

Not saying that they don’t have a genuine blue collar background, but I’ve read that they made a lot of money from their fishing business, and were actually millionaires by the time Sarah ran for VP. They’re not Mitt Romney-rich, of course, and what they had before is probably peanuts compared to what Sarah is making now by cashing in on her notoriety, but they’ve been pretty well-off for a while now.

[BrainGlutton]

A Palin-Obama debate would be a . . . deeply disturbing thing to watch. Regardless of one’s politics.

[Exapno_Mapcase]

When you’re in the public eye before a campaign the money pours in. When you are a declared candidate running an actual campaign the money hemorrhages out.

There in two sentences is why Palin is not running.

[Merijeek]

@Recovering_Republican

Romney’s big problems are that he’s a Mormon, (most Evangelicals consider the Mormons to be heretics, at best.) and that he’s a guy with four mansions who got that way by corporate raiding and putting working folks out of jobs.

You see, this is the underlying secret of the GOP. The GOP is the party of the wealthy. Once you realize that, as I have, you realize that as a working guy voting Republican makes about as much sense as a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders (Hense, my nom de plume). But they talk about guns and gays and Jesus and keep a lot of working folks voting against their own economic interests.

But you see, that’s where you’re wrong. You’re forgetting the inherent stupidity of the average Republican voter.

They have no problem with someone like Romney getting wealthy by putting people out of their jobs. The REAL men, the REAL GOPer, the REAL rugged individualist wouldn’t have lost his job. He would have stood apart from the pack and he would have been lauded for being superior to the losers around him.

Besides, of course your GOPer Six-Pack wants taxes reduced to nothing for the wealthy. Some day that’ll be him, and he doesn’t want his millions going to some damned welfare queen who was stupid enough to get outsourced by a true entrepreneur like Romney.

-Joe

[Voyager]

@Exapno_Mapcase

When you’re in the public eye before a campaign the money pours in. When you are a declared candidate running an actual campaign the money hemorrhages out.

There in two sentences is why Palin is not running.

You think she’d use her own money? She’s dumb, but not as dumb as Meg Whitman.

[Voyager]

@BrainGlutton

A Palin-Obama debate would be a . . . deeply disturbing thing to watch. Regardless of one’s politics.

Why more disturbing than the Biden / Palin debate? There is no reason to think Palin would want to or could prepare better. She’d stick to canned talking points, just like before. Now, if she started to try to think on her feet it would be a laff riot, but they’d never let her do that.

[Onomatopoeia]

I repeat, Palin is not going to run.

[Exapno_Mapcase]

@Voyager

You think she’d use her own money? She’s dumb, but not as dumb as Meg Whitman.

All competitive campaigns are in debt at all times. Every campaign cuts spending and lays off staff at some point. Every expenditure is scrutinized by the press. (Remember the $150,000 in clothing “scandal”?) Family expenses are paid out of the candidate’s pocket. All major campaigns are torn between spending all they have to keep the public’s attention but running out of money when it counts and not spending now and running the danger of not reaching or energizing voters. In today’s world, spending is more important than ever.

As I understand it, Palin’s current tour is paid for by SarahPAC and that won’t be allowed during the campaign. To maintain the lifestyle, the convenience, the family presence, and the public eye will start costing millions. There are ways to get this money legally but every major candidate seems to end a campaign in debt that takes years to pay off.

Not her style. Winning the presidency is the only thing that makes it worthwhile. (Can anyone believe she hasn’t looked at the sad spectacle of what John McCain has become?) She can’t win. And she won’t run.

[Recovering_Republican]

@Merijeek

But you see, that’s where you’re wrong. You’re forgetting the inherent stupidity of the average Republican voter.

They have no problem with someone like Romney getting wealthy by putting people out of their jobs. The REAL men, the REAL GOPer, the REAL rugged individualist wouldn’t have lost his job. He would have stood apart from the pack and he would have been lauded for being superior to the losers around him.

Besides, of course your GOPer Six-Pack wants taxes reduced to nothing for the wealthy. Some day that’ll be him, and he doesn’t want his millions going to some damned welfare queen who was stupid enough to get outsourced by a true entrepreneur like Romney.

-Joe

I don’t know if I’d call that stupidity. I think human nature is to think we are all better than we are.

Heck, I’ve been let go from jobs 3 times in the last 20 years. The first two times, I was back better than I was within a year, so yeah, I could see were your average Republican could have a righteous contempt for the “Welfare queen” who has been on the dole her entire life, because her mother and grandmother were on it.

This time, not so much, this recession is bad. Three years later, I haven’t made a full recovery, and really, it’s only a matter of time before this job is outsourced to Asia. I don’t blame Obama, he was handed a real turd sandwich by Bush. I do fault him for not being a lot more aggressive on the issue, for toadying up to Wall Street, for maintaining the idiotic trade treaties that haven’t worked to our benefit.

That’s why I think a lot on the far right are not going to support Romney. When you get right down to it, he’s a RINO with a weird religion that they don’t understand who hires illegals to do his yardwork.

They figure that they can nominate Palin or Bachmann and probably beat this guy. And they might be right.

Heck, if unemployment is still at 9% in 2012, I might have a relapse.

[Fear_Itself]

@Recovering_Republican

They figure that they can nominate Palin or Bachmann and probably beat this guy. And they might be right.

Heck, if unemployment is still at 9% in 2012, I might have a relapse.

This is what happens when fear overcomes reason.

[Frostillicus]

@Onomatopoeia

I repeat, Palin is not going to run.

Running for president is very hard work. Sarah Palin is incredibly lazy. You are correct.

[puddin]

I wish she would not raise her pitch tone while speaking. It’s a microphone, don’t shrill. Anyhow I go with her ideas. Anyone who voted for Edwards (twice) should ask what Sarah did that was worse than his deeds. Getting elected mayor in a small town (where everyone knows everyone’s business back to the grandparents) is harder than getting elected senator (or president) just because you give good speeches. Maybe it’s time for a different type of election…two men enter…one man leaves. Our grandkids will need such a “strongman” while they fight future terrorists on our very streets.

[Chronos]

Getting elected mayor in a small town (where everyone knows everyone’s business back to the grandparents) is harder than getting elected senator (or president) just because you give good speeches.

How could this possibly be true? In either case, someone’s got to win, and there are a lot more people trying for the Senate or Presidency than for City Hall. Wouldn’t that logically imply that it’s a lot easier to win the mayoral race?

And what in the world does Mad Max have to do with anything vaguely resembling a sensible system of government?

[Merijeek]

@puddin

Our grandkids will need such a “strongman” while they fight future terrorists on our very streets.

Wow. That’s impressively stupid. Let me guess, you’re buying up gold for when the gummint makes guns illegal?

-Joe

[Chefguy]

Well, she’s not going to take her home state, apparently.

[Recovering_Republican]

@Fear_Itself

This is what happens when fear overcomes reason.

No, this is what happens when a guy I didn’t vote for to start with doesn’t give us a compelling reason why he should keep the job.

Other than “the other guy might be worse”.

But unemployment has been at or over 9% most of Obama’s term. To find a president with consistantly higher unemployment, you’d have to go back to Herbert Hoover.

Personally, I think most of the GOP candidates are terrible, and I’ve been involved with GOP politics since 1980, and never saw such an awful bunch.

[Fear_Itself]

@Recovering_Republican

But unemployment has been at or over 9% most of Obama’s term. To find a president with consistantly higher unemployment, you’d have to go back to Herbert Hoover.

Why is this a compelling reason to vote for a Republican?

[AbloyProtec]

@Fear_Itself

Why is this a compelling reason to vote for a Republican?

Is that a serious question?

[RTFirefly]

@Frostillicus

Running for president is very hard work. Sarah Palin is incredibly lazy. You are correct.

Bingo. She’s not going to run - she’s just going to pretend to flirt with the idea as long as it can get her some more publicity.

Not only is she lazy, she’s just too much of a flake in general to run a Presidential campaign.

There was a time when I thought she had a nontrivial chance to win the GOP nomination, but that was under the assumption that she’d hire professionals to run her campaign, and mostly follow their direction. It’s clear now that she’s constitutionally incapable of doing that. As a result, I don’t think she’s capable of winning a primary in a state other than Alaska, and even that’s hardly a gimme.