Asteroid may hit Mars next month!

[Cicero]

One in 75? I am not worried.

[Musicat]

@Cicero

One in 75? I am not worried.

But the odds have been changing:

the odds have been cut from one in 350 when the object was first identified, and they are much shorter than is usual for new asteroids.

Environment - The Telegraph

…the odds of a huge asteroid hitting the planet next month shortened dramatically.

At the present rate of change, by next month the odds will be much lower, yes?

Go, asteroid! Yay! Hit that planet! Hit, hit, hit!

[squeegee]

More on object 2007 WD5, includings explanations of it’s hypothetical orbit. Also an oblique explanation of why the Moon is making it difficult to track the object.

@NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office

The asteroid is becoming increasingly difficult to observe, since it is receding from the Earth and the waxing Moon is approaching the same part of the sky.

I read this as that the object isn’t hidden behind the moon, but the glare from the moon is making the object difficult to see.

[Ephemera]

Ooh. That’s my birthday and that’d make a really neat present.

[2nd_Law]

Now, what I think would be cool in a astronomical fireworks kind of way, would be if this asteroid were to collide with one of Mars’ moons, Phobos or Deimos. Both of them are in low orbits, and rather small as moons go, and the collision could be enough to actually knock them down into Mars. That would be a pretty big boom!

[squeegee]

In Phobos’ case, it’s already close the Roche limit, so it’d break up before it deorbited, and likely form a ring around the planet. Dunno about Deimos.

[Boyo_Jim]

@squeegee

The moon moves against the background sky about 13.2 degrees per day, so an hour isn’t very much movement.

However, 2 weeks does seem like an awfully long time. Maybe the orbit of the asteroid is coincident with the moon’s apparent path in our sky? That seems unlikely, unless its part of an eevil plan!

@Tuckerfan

You mean like its going to hit Mars and then send it hurtling towards the Earth in a cosmic game of billiards? Sweet!

No. It’s powered, and will change course while shielded, and when it reappears it will be pointed straight at US! :eek:

[Boyo_Jim]

BTW, there ought to be in online odds tracker for this. We should look for it.

[anyrose]

Is this something we’ll be able to see here? Mega cool

[Tuckerfan]

@Boyo Jim

No. It’s powered, and will change course while shielded, and when it reappears it will be pointed straight at US! :eek:

Even better!

[BMalion]

@Musicat

But the odds have been changing:
Environment - The Telegraph
At the present rate of change, by next month the odds will be much lower, yes?

…

It’s eeriely remeniscient of Larry Niven’s Lucifer’s Hammer.
Not in a good way.

Johnny L.A., what swell party this is.

[squeegee]

Speaking of Lucifer’s Hammer, Earth get’s its own fly-by the day before:

@spaceweather.com

ASTEROID FLYBY: Mark your calendar: On Jan. 29, 2008, one night before a Tunguska-class (50m-wide) asteroid threatens to strike Mars, an even larger asteroid will fly past our own planet. At closest approach, 2007 TU24 will be 1.4 lunar distances from Earth. There’s no danger of a collision, but the 400m-wide space rock will be close enough to phtograph through backyard telescopes as it speeds through the constellation Cassiopeia glowing like a 10th magnitude star.

[RTFirefly]

@2nd Law

Now, what I think would be cool in a astronomical fireworks kind of way, would be if this asteroid were to collide with one of Mars’ moons, Phobos or Deimos. Both of them are in low orbits, and rather small as moons go, and the collision could be enough to actually knock them down into Mars. That would be a pretty big boom!

That would be neat. An incredible longshot, given how small both moons are, but neat.

[BMalion]

@squeegee

Speaking of Lucifer’s Hammer, Earth get’s its own fly-by the day before:

Thanks, :rolleyes: now I’m thinking of filling my van with gasoline cans, guns, ammo, booze and MRE’s.

Come to think of it, that sounds like a pretty good weekend in Vegas.
Bada-ching.
I’ll be here all week.
Thank you Slim Pickens.

[drewbert]

@squeegee

The moon moves against the background sky about 13.2 degrees per day, so an hour isn’t very much movement.

Heh, forgot to check back on this thread. Sorry for the bump…

But the moon is only 0.5 degrees diameter in the sky - and by your own figure moves about 0.55 degrees through the sky every hour. Seems unlikely that something in the gravitational pull of Mars (which by comparison is hardly moving at all) would be able to hide behind the Moon for very long.

[squeegee]

Drewbert: Arg! Beaten by math!! I’d had some notion the moon was wider than that. I bow to your superior wiki-fu. Namasté.

But… that’s only more proof that it’s part of an eeevil plan! I’ll be in the bomb shelter if you need me.

[drewbert]

Hmm… I wonder if the apartment manager will mind if I start digging a shelter of my own.