I dont have to care if someone invests a billion in telepathy either. But I can make a judgement that any investor putting money into it might be primarily doing it for other reasons than profitability, and that any chance of said profitability is pretty unlikely. Eg they think telepathy is neat, and they really want to see it work.
We seem to be in a position where more data is the only thing thats going to tell us much about this particular venture.
Otara
One of the things I haven’t heard mentioned is that asteroid collisions with earth represent an existential threat to humanity and there is value to developing long range asteroid detection and manipulation technologies before it’s too late. This in itself might be enough to justify the investment, even if the whole mining thing doesn’t pan out.
Hey, as long as private investors are paying, it fine. But when the taxpayers are made to pony up for projects doomed from the start (Solyndra, Evergreen Solar), I object.
Solar energy is a chimera that will never pay its own way.
But when you have the public treasury access, who cares?
A couple of figures for reference.
the cost of a typical satellite mission is anywhere from $50 million to half a billion dollars.
An olde time space shuttle missions also costs about half a billion.
The cost of one ton of gold at about $1600 an oz is about $50 million.
A total of 165,000 tons of gold have been mined in all of human history.
A typical terrestrial mine only produces a fraction of an oz of gold per ton of ore.
Now while there are single asteroids that probably have more gold or other precious metals than have ever been mined, it seems to me the cost is prohibitively expensive at todays launch costs. It doesn’t matter how much gold and palladium and whatnot is out there because your company will lose money with each mining mission.
Of course, a lot of those items are myths:
*SunPower and First Solar have slowed recently, but that is due to fierce competition that actually caused a reduction in prices and that makes solar not a Chimera:
I’ve been saying this for five years. Maybe ten. Imma gonna do a little gloating dance now.
Okay, I feel better. Yes. Finally, we’re in a position where we can let a thousand flowers bloom. Back in the 60s, we weren’t. But we are now, and this is where the game begins to change.
OK, what is the cost per kilowatt hour of these “successful” solar plants? Compared to natural gas or nuclear, it simply isn’t worth it.
Or take Germany-the government subsidized solar farms-that generate power for (maybe) 2 hours in winter).
It is not about generating electricity-its about subsidizing German solar panel mfgs.
Bringing bulk materials down from orbit is relatively simple – shape them into hollowed-out aerodynamic forms and apply a relatively small delta-v to put them on an atmosphere-skimming course. From there, they just need enough rudimentary guidance to make sure they drop in more or less the right area of ocean (where they float; see “hollowed-out”).
ISTM that the point of mining asteroids is not to bring stuff to earth, but to have stuff in orbit that can be used for building things in space.
For example, once the materials sciences are ready for a space elevator, the next big challenge is getting a whole lot of material to geostationary orbit. It would be nice if a lot of that can come from passing asteroids, and not be launched from earth.
The last time something like this happened, it turned out to be a huge CIA plot to recover a Soviet submarine, the K-129, which sank in the Pacific ocean.
That event was actually much of the inspiration for the James Cameron movie “The Abyss”.
James Cameron is one of the primary investors in this venture.
All of which leads to one inescapable conclusion: The Soviet Union didn’t collapse, it escaped into space in submarines! Wake up sheeple!
Anyway, I’m seriously getting a Glomar Explorer vibe from all of this. Not that I think it’s a CIA plot to recover something in space, but that it’s actually a front for something else. I’m thinking space tourism. Cameron went to the bottom of the Marianas (for a lot more than 20 minutes), and now he probably wants to get to orbit. They frown upon simply buying trips to the ISS these days, but if there’s an important scientific reason, there might be some leeway.
Putting aside the technical and economic issues, what about the legal issues? Especially property rights; who owns an asteroid? The person who discovers it? The person who remotely surveys it? The person who lands on it? (Themself or via robotic proxy?) The person who brings back a piece of it? (Back to where?)
What governments claim jurisdiction? What governments can enforce their jurisdictions? What legal framework is used? Is it even possible to own an asteroid like a mine (an owned asset) or are they like the ocean (a commons)? Are we going to see a Wild West or Pirates of the Caribbean situation?
I’m sure there is or will be answers to all those, but there’s a lot of risk.
I would say that as a practical matter, it’s whoever gets there the firstest with the mostest. I mean, if you have the ability to retreive billions of dollars of gold and platinum from space, it should be easy enough to find a friendly state to use as a base of operations in exchange for a piece of the action.
Who is going to stop you?
Here is a nice quote I found from Paul Graham which I think is apropos:
Nonsense! Cool conquers all!
(That’s all about “suspension-of-disbelief,” of course – which is pretty essential, when you’re looking for investors in something new!)
Sure, Buck Rogers, whatever you say.
But we have the technology, right now, to get nearly a ton’s worth of fully refined precious metals to the space station on one unmanned rocket, in one launch. In fact, we’ve lifted that much stuff into near-Earth orbit many times now - the crew of a space shuttle is 7 people, plus food and water and all the stuff you need on the trip to maintain a habitable space for the crew.
Asteroid mining will be worth its while someday. But my prediction is that that day will come at one of two times:
In the year 2050, asteroid mining will still be a money-losing operation, and I’d be surprised if it’s advanced past occasional experimental efforts by then. With decent luck, I’ll still be alive and posting to the Dope (if the Dope still exists), and you can laugh at me if I’m wrong.
Sure, you can probably make anything in space that you can make down here on Earth, but even on Earth, things are awfully interdependent. The pieces of a refinery don’t all come from one place, probably don’t even come from just a dozen different factories themselves. Boosting the infrastructure to build the components of a refinery in space would be a hell of a lot more expensive than just boosting the components of the refinery.
Relevant story: Private-sector space-triumph! The SpaceX Dragon successfully launched to, and captured by, the ISS! :):)
(MPSIMS thread.)
Of course, these guys are essentially government contractors – we won’t really have private-sector space travel until we have some involving no tax dollars at all. But this at least suggests the possibility.
You have to admit it makes a lot more sense than coming here to steal our water?