To clarify, what I’m asking is at how much lower would. the level of competition have to be for the top teams have to face. in order to be able to win 99.9% or more of their games? Choose whatever team sport you prefer.
I recall that back in the day when the Cleveland Browns were in the midst of their two back to back almost winless seasons, the joke was made here on this board that they would probably lose to the University of Alabama or maybe even Ohio State. The response was that the talent gap was way too wide for that to be plausible. That has me wondering about how large the talent gap needs to be in the various sports for the top professional teams to be facing a team that they could beat easily, say over a 99.9% chance of victory.
My guess is that in some sports, like American football, the difference in talent gap for an easy win might be smaller than in something like baseball or basketball. The reason I assume this is because the best NFL teams will usually go 14-2, 15-1, and the very rare but still plausible 16-0. The best baseball teams, on the other hand, top out at winning roughly 2/3 of their games. Does this mean that say, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would never lose to the Alabama Crimson Tide, but that it might be possible for the Los Angeles Dodgers to lose to a top college baseball team? Maybe they would easily beat a college baseball team, but still take the occasional loss against a AA or AAA minor league team? What about the NBA or other team sports?