Attack Iraq?

I respectfully disagree with you on that last point, sailor. First of all, the US has the support of the few key players that we need. The UK is with us (they’re ready to ship troops as we speak), and Turkey has granted us permission to use their nation as a staging ground. Israel certainly supports us. Others will turn around if the war starts off well… which it will. Even if every other nation in the world aside from the three I mentioned were opposed to us attacking Iraq, would we do it? Quite possibly, and personally I would hope so. Depose a dangerous dictator who is amassing WMDs and who we know would use them, given the chance, who is openly hostile towards the US, and who seeks (like much of the Arab world) the complete eradication of Israel? Or play nice to make sure that we don’t arouse the anger of Europe? The choice seems obvious. Would you piss of your neighbor in order to keep out a criminal who was trying to murder you in your house? Saddam is a threat, we know this, we will act on this. If the rest of Europe chooses to frown upon this, so be it, but that doesn’t alter the fact that it needs to be done. Should have been done 10 years ago, in fact.

There are also a number of secondary benefits to knocking Saddam out of power. Currently, a large number of middle eastern nations as saying, “Yes, terrorists are bad, shame on them for killing innocent civilians”, even as they grant money to the families of those. These nations include Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and I believe a few others whose names escape me at the moment. Striking Iraq would send the message to them that if they choose to fund attacks against us and our allies, there will be a price to pay. I would expect to see at least Iran and Syria, and possibly even Saudi Arabia, change their tune after we knock down Saddam. Further, by inserting a friendly government into Iraq, we would establish another oil producing country that actually liked us (Russia being the first - kudos to Bush for striking that deal with Putin). We would no longer be as likely to be held hostage by oil-producing nations. Also, with one of terrorisms larger supporters out of the ring, and an implicit warning going out to others, we may see a significant drop in attacks against Israel, meaning that perhaps some “peace talks” could take place that will actually accomplish something. Israel will be beseiged by terrorists until either the nations supporting them stop, or until Israel is decimated. Personally, I opt for the former.

I recall someone at the top of this thread asked, “Why Iraq? Why not China?” Short answer: We can’t take China. We can take Iraq. That, and China hasn’t said they want to kill us, and paid people to attack our allies.

Bottom line: We have the motive to attack Iraq, we have the power to attack Iraq, and we have the strategic support we need. Saddam’s continued existence in the seat of power jeopardizes both our nation, and Israel’s. We’d be fools not to invade.

Jeff

Have you ever thought that that image might be correct in some circumstances?

And the Tabarnacle Choir sang as one…

“CITE?”

Once more, with gusto…

Cite?

Now, you’re starting to annoy me. You are talking out of your hat.

And this proves?

Sir, you are very, very ignorant as to how the world exists outside of the comfortable little universe you have created. I wish it were that simple, but the following diagram cannot apply to real life, no matter howe much you would like it to.




----------------------------------------------------------------------------
With us                         I Against us
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I
                                I



Where are you getting this information from, ElJeffe?
The UK is at most is only very hesitantly with you (mostly through Tony Blair’s personal pushing rather than parliamentary support), and Turkey is anything but happy about being used as a staging ground (Turkey opposes strike against Iraq (BBC News, 17 July)). British troops have not been deployed, nor even obviously readied for action.

>> Saddam’s continued existence in the seat of power jeopardizes both our nation, and Israel’s. We’d be fools not to invade.

Ok, so that’s what you believe. How many more people believe that?

>> I’m not a big fan of Europe. I don’t mind Europeans, but Europe, in general, bugs me

Wow, Europe and its Europeans should be grateful they are allowed to exist.

>> They are largely socialistic and opposed to personal freedom in general

Hmmm, maybe they need some invading too? After all it’s on the way to Bagdag.

>> They (entering gross generaization mode) perceive Americans as gun-toting ignorant philistines who have no regard for anyone other than themselves.

Maybe they are reading your posts?

I apologize for an error I made above. Re-reading my post, I stated that Turkey was going to allow the US to use their nation as a staging ground, which was apparently due to a colossal brain fart. I had meant to type “Jordan”. We were hoping to use Turkey, but some recent instability there has made us reconsider, at least for the time being. My bad.

Evidence of this can be found here:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0711/dailyUpdate.html
With regards to British support for the war against Iraq, it seems that British reservists are being called forth in large numbers starting in September. I wonder what England could possibly need all those troops for? Hmmm…

http://www.rense.com/general27/reserv.htm

For those of you who wish to discuss Europe in more detail, I don’t think this is the place for such tangents. I apologize for posting what I did, not because I don’t feel that way, but because it was wildly off-topic. I was trying to respond in such a way as to clarify my opinion on the matter, but it shouldn’t become the focal point of a thread on a war on Iraq.

Jeff

I’d be very interested in any credible sources corroborating those preparations for war. I cannot take those sources very seriously. http://www.rense.com/ looks like a bad joke.

Sailor, the story that rense.com posted was derived from The Telegraph. Is that not credible, either?

Jeff

Well, I do not know what to say. If this is a serious buildup to go to war against Irak, I am very surprised we are not hearing much more about it from many sides. I really am interested in knowing more about this.

I thought the tone here changed quite significantly when Blair appeared in front of a House of Commons Committee in the middle of last week:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2134571.stm

The storm clouds are gathering.

Turkey is not out of the question. Neither is Jordan. Iraq used to be a Hashemite kingdom, and there are plenty in Jordan that would like to see it re-established that way. In fact, a Jordanian Prince just showed up at a meeting of expatriate Iraqis discussing invasion plans. The official Jordanian position is that they do not support the actions of the Prince, but don’t be too surprised.

I think it might be a good development anyway. A new Hashemite resurgence might be just what that area of the world needs.

The other factor is that most of the other Arab countries are not exactly friends of Iraq. They oppose the U.S. out of principle, and also out of fear that they will be cut off from Iraqi oil or come under Hussein’s insane gunsights. But if the war becomes inevitable, I predict you will see some countries shifting sides pretty quickly, as they did before the Gulf war.

I could not agree more with this. Any Arab leader who openly supported an attack with Iraq right now might as well paint a bullseye on his palace. Moreover, imagine supporting an attack that for whatever reason does not come. In foreign affairs procrastination can pay off.

I think if the US decides to go the other Arab leaders will “support” us by publicly saying they had no choice, and secretly being very happy Saddam is on the way out.

Interesting, but I wonder how Blair’s resolve will fare if war does look likely. Certainly, public and parliamentary support will be a fraction of it’s 1991 heights.

Yep, Blair has some problems with this at home but he clearly believes (now) none are insurmountable.

IMHO, there’s much dislike, distrust and a lot of resentment about and towards Bush for almost everything he’s done while in office. I’d guess the centre ground of UK politics would put that aside for the duration of what would be an overriding imperative but I doubt that could be said for the liberal left and much of Europe.

Blair also has to overcome the views of people like Scott Ritter, the controversial former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq (although, cleverly, not anti-war himself. Smart positioning, at the moment). He’s increasingly becoming a thorn in the side of the pro-war lobby and, one assumes, he has to be discredited. Nonetheless, as things stand, the US/UN withdrew from Iraq (not expelled), Ritter admitted what Saddam claimed (they were spying) and the (probably political) position of Saddam that he only wants reassurances (about not spying) before readmitting the Inspectors. That’s ticky for Blair.

Then he’ll need pretty good evidence…presumably the same old ambiguous satellite photo’s, experts looking for a Knighthood, etc…

Meanwhile as the (UK) goodies move a rook, the baddies move a knight…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2146221.stm

Iranian President Mohammed Khatami:
“We wish to caution the great powers against further interference in the affairs of this region and against the exacerbation of the flames of war,” he said.
“We live in a very frightening situation… we have witnessed that war has never been so much promoted in the US.”

Also, regarding not hearing too much about this in the news, I think that’s to be expected. The less word that gets around about our attack plans, the better. If everything that’s in the works gets blabbed to all the major news outlets, we may as well send Saddam an invitation saying, “You have been cordially invited to an invasion! Date: September 5th, 2002. Location: Your backyard. Bring bodybags!” I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the few stories that have gotten out have been intentionally leaked to throw Saddam off. Tell him we’re going to attack in September, September comes and goes, he gets comfy, secure that the wussy Westerners would never have the gall to attack, and then in January, we nail him. I actually hope that we attack early next year, so that we can have him out of power close to April. Then I’ll win my office pool. :slight_smile:

Jeff

Jeff

No ** ElJeffe**, probably more accurate to say there isn’t yet an “attack plan” by which to begin preparations. It’s still believed that this doesn’t have to be a full scale Gulf War Two land invasion (of course, it might still be), but rather that a more limited, targeted campaign around Baghdad might also do the job. Potential failure, though, would be political suicide for Bush so…

As far as I’m aware, the question of what happens after any ‘regime’ change’ continues to overshadow everything else. At the moment the best option looks like a long-term (open ended) US presence in Iraq – which is not an option, or really shouldn’t be IMHO…

Just a nightmare of a problem. Often you have at least the middle-classes (or Afghani warlords) to empower and utilise to keep social order but Saddam’s did for them a long time ago.

Time for Bush to make big pow wow with the UN ?

Sharon still looks like the fly in the ointment, though. No Arab support without progess on a Palestinian State. All this must be playing havoc with Sunday’s on the sports sofa.

I think there’s really two questions here - will they attack Iraq? And, should they attack Iraq?

Regarding the first question, I think there’s no doubt that Bush and Blair certainly want to attack, probably sometime early next year. But their rhetoric is interesting.

They are using firm language (“we’re a-gonna git them Iraqi sonsofbitches just you wait and see”) while still being somewhat vague as to the details. The reason they are being vague is because there are a number of things that could happen between now and then that could postpone, or even cancel, the invasion eg:

Things that could stop the invasion

  • there could be an unforeseen international crises somewhere in the world such as the middle east or India/Pakistan or somewhere else. An Israeli friend of mine tells me that there are currently rumours flying around Israel that Israel is about to attack Syria. Don’t know if it’s true but remember - you heard it here first.

  • there could be a huge shares crash a la 1929. The stock markets are looking somewhat shaky at the moment

  • Iraq could announce that it is willing to comply with a new UN weapons inspection. This one is my personal bet - they’ll comply with the Inspectors just enough to keep the dogs of war at bay but not enough so they actually discover anything (kinda like last time)

  • there could be a huge public outcry against the proposed invasion amongst the American public and/or the European public (unlikely this one, I think)

The other question is should we attack Iraq?

This one is more difficult. There’s very little evidence (in the public arena) linking Iraq to terrorist groups. Unless the US and UK governments know something we don’t then it’s hard to justify an invasion of Iraq purely on these grounds.

There’s the question of WMD. If Iraq is developing these then you get into the whole area of whether it would be appropriate to launch a pre-emptive strike.

There’s the question of civilian casualties. The first Gulf War was pretty easy really (overall) but then we didn’t try to take Baghdad. Saddam’s troops will be dug in, heavily armed and well protected. The Taliban were a two-bit outfit compared to the Republican Guard. And we have to assume that, as a last resort, Saddam will use chemical or biological weapons if he is able to.

There’s the question of who replaces Saddam. Do we really need another hardline Islamist state in the region?

There’s the question of wider turmoil in the region. The streets of Egypt are boiling with anti-american feeling at the moment. Another US military adventure against the Arabs is hardly gonna help.
Personally, I’d like to see the back of Saddam because then we could get rid of the sanctions (which have killed half a million Iraqi children since they were imposed) and, let’s face it, the next guy can’t be any worse.

But I just don’t know if it can be justified.

As far as I’m aware, the question of what happens after any ‘regime’ change’ continues to overshadow everything else. At the moment the best option looks like a long-term (open ended) US presence in Iraq – which is not an option, or really shouldn’t be IMHO…

Probably not necessary. Those who are most important in helping choose the future government are Iraq’s neighbors, Syria, Turkey, et al. Discussions limited to them would be more beneficial, as it would keep the noise to signal ratio in the talks low, so to speak. It would also be a good idea to get input from Israel, as a prereq for a good government is going to be one that isn’t actively seeking the destruction of Israel. :slight_smile:

There will never be progress on a Palestinian state until suicide bombings start to abate, and the only thing will stifle suicide bombings is either the elimination of Israel, or a serious change of attitude in the Arab states. And a change of attitude won’t be possible without a change in governments - ie, the institution of more democratic systems that provide more political, economic, and religious freedoms.

Jeff

Where from do you get all this stuff Jeff? In case there is doubt I might add that I’m asking somewhat seriously, 'cause even with a rather extensive daily reading list on current affairs I feel like I am inhabiting an alternate universe to yours.
Sparc

I was just thinking how it would cheer up the Northern Kurds, the Marsh Arabs, Saddam’s remaining military machinery, the Mullah’s, the general population of Iraq…to have their chosen leaders selected by Turkey and Syria. Then you mention Israel. That should really make the new Iraq swing.

FWIW, you might do better to check the Washington safe houses of former Iraqi Army Generals or the dissident community in London. Except neither of those are thought (by the powers that be) to be acceptable to the Iraqi people, either.

Hey, how about the former Shah of Iran - didn’t he have kids ?