Drug helps mystery bug patients (from BBC)
More deaths in HK.
http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030324.htm
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/451218
(second article requires free registration)
The CDC seems convinced that the causative agent is a corona virus.
Eh… why the different results?
Maybe it’s two, two, two viruses in one!
Actually, I was curious, since apparently colds are caused by coronavirus (inference from articles), then is it possible that the person the pathologists is working on had a cold and then caught this other stuff?
Maybe it’s neither virus. A possibility.
From BBC News
Paramyxovirus sounds like a good cause, it causes the right symptoms–but the disease progression of Paramyxovirus isn’t matching the progression in these cases…
Typically paramyyxovirus has a 10-14 days incubation time, during which the patient is contagous. The reports are saying 2-7 days for this SARS pathogen. Not only is the incubation period too long to be a ‘typical’ paramyxovirus, paramyxovirus also is transmitted as an aerosol. And you’d really expect a MUCH higher rate of infection since it appears fairly easy to be exposed to.
Also paramyxovirus (which we get vaccinated against with the MMR series) doesn’t mutate and change serotypes. Which means once you’re exposed to it and generate antibodies, that’s it… the pathogen won’t mutate enough to escape those pathogens. Which makes thing stranger. MMR is a childhood illness, it can be often fatal especially in areas with poor medical treatment. And I’m not sure how widespread the use of the vaccine is yet. I’d guess in areas of rural china it’s not too widespread in it’s usage. So, if this was a straight paramyxovirus you’d expect more children to be affected, since development of the immunesystem typically mitigates the effectiveness of the pathogen.
Anyone know if the 31 mysterious pneumonia deaths were occuring primarily in children? I can’t seem to find statistics on age/sex/general health of those killed by the pathogen.
I’m at a loss to explain why a herpes C antiviral is working against it.
ShibbOleth has the same idea I had after reading about the conflicting prelim data from the CDC and WHO. We could be looking at two seperate pathogens that if they infect people at the same time could cause more rapid and severe disease progression.
Then again, it could be a strange mutant of Paramyxovirus… which with the prevelance of the MMR vaccine series could account for why the pathogen is spreading so slowly around the globe. Most of the industralized world, and I believe all world travelers are or should have that vaccine.
But I can see how either a vaccine in the general population or that the disease is caused by rapid sequential infection by two seperate pathogens would limit the rate of viral outbreak.
Anyone else forming any interesting ideas?
More HK deaths–disease spreading–calls for schools to close–Red China continues news blackout on disease—Red China continues to withhold data on disease—widespread panic in afflicted province
CRorex, I’ve not seen a breakdown of fatalities by age, but many of the infections and deaths seem to be in the medical services community (eg, doctors and nurses). So not likely children, although they could be elderly. I’ll see if I can find that info somewhere.
Primarily Doctors and Nurses?
That’s really strange.
Which again makes the claim that it’s a paramyxovirus doubtful. Of all sub-groups of humanity health care workers are usually the best vaccinated. It would definatly lend support to the disease being some sort of synergistic effect caused by two seperate viral infections.
Anyhoo this is way over my level of understanding… Just randomly guessing.
I find it interesting that paramyxo is being implicated. Just a quick glance at the symptoms tells me that there is a clinical simlarity to canine distemper–a disease caused by a paramyxo virus–which is commonly fatal in young dogs. I’m wondering if it is possible that this virus jumped species?
Not really. Who’s most likely to come in intimate contact with a very sick person? If it’s a virus that is resistant to current vaccines out there, health professionals are probably the most at risk. And I’m taking a WAG here by saying they’re also more likely to report being sick, too.
One of the reasons the health care providers were getting sick was a lack of standard protection, like masks and goggles in that region. WHO has been making sure plenty of protective devices are available. You would think that they’d be vaccinated, but you also would think they’d have masks and goggles, so who knows.
The good news seems to be that it has been hanging around a couple areas of China since at least November and the # of deaths is low given the nature of the country.
But I’m waiting to see what happens when it hits a place like Lagos Nigeria. Big 3rd world city with lousy infrastructure and no public health system. If a place like Lagos gets hit by this and goes under, then we have a Bad Thing going around. The nearest “big city with problems” to the US is Mexico City, but it’s a wonderland compared to Lagos. Watch the Africa thru India corridor.
There’s a really cool site here where you can look at today’s frontpages, and the disease seems to be on the increase in Ontario, specifically the Toronto area. One school closed, and an undetermined number of people quarantined.
Any Canadian dopers care to chime in as to the level of concern locally? It seems really overshadowed here in the US news so far.
Curious stuff.
Important information so I’m bumping.
Bosda, the information I’m getting from WHO through ProMED says that China is cooperating - somewhat warily, but they seem to have ‘come clean’ about the number, location, and time span of both infections and deaths. They originally named Chlamydia as the infectious agent, based on specimens taken from victims during autopsy (opportunistic infection, maybe?). Supposedly, they are setting up a better data-reporting system to make it easier to supply info to WHO investigators and are also supposed to be trading blood samples so everyone can make comparisons. You can read all about it here: WHO Update 10, 3/26/2003
Update on reported cases, from above link:
Cumulative Number of Reported Cases (WHO)
Last three postings from ProMED:
SARS Worldwide:China(08)
SARS Worldwide:clinical features (09)
SARS Worldwide:infectious disease perspectives (10)
There is a fourth posting about the number of cases, but I can’t get it to come up on the website, and I’ve already deleted the digest I received it in; if I recall correctly, it basically consisted of the WHO Update 10.
From today’s BBC News: Health