Are auroras a common / constant enough happening that you could plan a vacation to see them firsthand with a fair bit of certainty?
-rainy
Auroras occur depending on solar wind activity, so predicting them is kind of dicey. Here is the aurora prediction site for the Geophysical Institute of University of Fairbanks, Alaska. Long term predictions only go out 28 days, and I would question how accurate they are. Short term prediction for the next 3-7 days are based on direct solar observation, so they are more accurate.
So if you are planning a vacation like this, be ready to travel on short notice. And don’t bother going in the summer; the midnight sun precludes any aurora viewing.
and checking here, Solar Cycle Progression Presented by the NOAA, the last peak years were 2000-2002, so the next “best” years will be 2011-2016ish.
Currently were near the minimum (predicted for 2007) in the sunspot cycle.
Keep in mind the farther North you go, the more you increase your chances to see the aurora borealis.
CMC fnord!
Sky & Telescope’s AstroAlert will e-mail you when solar activity might result in the aurora being visible at lower latitudes.
Are you talking about the northern lights or the classified high speed, high altitude plane?
Well, now I have to kill you. 
The northern lights are my area of interest.
2016 should give me enough time to save up!
Large auroral displays can happen at any time. Some of the largest have occurred at solar minimum.
NOAA Space Environment Center main page: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/index.html
Aurora viewing tips: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/
According to this map, because of the location of the north geomagnetic pole, you have a roughly similar chance to see the aurora from the northern border of Minnesota as from southern Alaska. http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/globeNW.html. You could check with astronomy groups in that area to verify that.
NOAA Space Weather Now: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/
NOAA’s 3-day geomagnetic forecast: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html. Note at the bottom of the page that there is a slightly elevated probability for geomagnetic activity for a couple of days.
In addition to Sky and Telescope’s AstroAlerts, NOAA provides email alerts: http://pss.sec.noaa.gov/. I don’t know if they also have phone alerts, but you could have the emails forwarded to your cell phone.
This site receives and plots aurora sighting reports: http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php
This site packages lots of info in a more popular format. http://spaceweather.com/ It also has email alerts and a premium service for phone alerts.
There are times of the year you’re more likely to see the aurora: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast26oct_1.htm
True, but they’re a lot more likely and common at solar max. Seeing a good display at min is a lot more dependant on just happening to be in the right place at the right time.
Wherever and whenever you go, remember also that it’s critical to get away from light pollution. A very good display can be seen through city lights, but usually, they’re much too dim, and will be washed out. Unsurprisingly, it’s especially important that you not have a city to your north.
As it happens, the Astronomy Picture of the Day site (Astronomy Picture of the Day) has a very nice photo of an aurora over Bear Lake, Alaska taken in Jan 2005 as today’s pictur4e.
I should like to direct you to Yellowknife, NWT Canada for Aurora viewing. The season begins November 1 and goes until April 1 each year. A good friend of mine owns a B&B and in the winter is fully booked with Aurora tourism guests. Canadian Ex and Raven Tours are the companies which do the most business.
Or, you could stay with my sister at her cabin, she’s always glad to have guests. No, I’m not kidding.
If you want further information from a former resident or current resident, my email is in my profile.
That’s what inspired the question! 
Given your user name you should also remember that all it takes for your aurora viewing vacation to be ruined is a week of overcast weather.
That’s the truth! Knock on wood…we’ve only ever had one vacation ruined by weather. We were chased away from the N. Carolina coast by a huricane once. Not bad considering we usually wait until the prices drop during huricane season to go to the beach 